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Dave Cameron
12:00
Happy Wednesday, everyone.
12:01
This week's book recommendation, for those with toddlers: Hunting the Daddyosauarus. Super fun.
12:02
Let's get to the coldest of cold stoves.
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
12:02
How poorly does Jeter have to run the Marlins to have a negative pWAR (popularity WAR) in the mainstream baseball world? What about his pWAR in the New York markets? Like, if Jeter sends Giancarlo Stanton to the BoSox and Dombrowski fleeces Jeter, he's dead to Yankees fans, right?
Dave Cameron
12:02
Michael Jordan is the obvious corollary. He's run two NBA franchises into the ground as an executive, and I don't think Bulls fans care at all.
Big Papi
12:03
Red Sox are still the AL East favorites, right?  I was worried that NY would get Ohtani, but without him they still look like a WC team.
Dave Cameron
12:04
I mean, if you're judging them on their rosters in December, maybe. But NY has a pretty easy path to fill out their rotation, and come March, I'm pretty sure I'll take NYY over BOS.
Ed in Iowa
12:04
I’m an NL guy, so I’m totally scouting the stat line here: but am I right to think that Danny Duffy is slightly better than Alex Cobb, but not enough better to warrant paying him 4/$60 AND giving up serious assets for the privilege, when you could just as well sign Cobb for 4/$65 or 5/$75?
Dave Cameron
12:04
Yep.
Jack
12:04
What team would benefit the most from acquiring Ohtani?
Dave Cameron
12:05
Probably the Giants or Mariners, both of whom have questionable futures once their core ages out of contention in the not too distant future.
Buff
12:05
Is there any chance Ohtani starts the year in the minors?
Dave Cameron
12:05
If he's atrocious in spring training, or gets hurt and doesn't have time to build up his arm, maybe.
A team playing service time games with him would get crucified though.
ohtanifan63102
12:06
Who is the better pitcher over the next two years--Ohtani or MIkolas? Better numbers from Mikolas but he's never succeeded in MLB. What is your opinion on the short term value of those two? The dollar difference (perceived value at least, with Shohei) is pretty staggering is the main reason I ask.
Dave Cameron
12:07
Even the optimistic projections on Mikolas have him as an average-ish innings eater type. Ohtani would have to significantly underachieve in order to not be better.
FrankJStudd
12:07
Thoughts on the Mikolas contract?  To me, it seems like another case of paying for stats earned against subpar competition.  I see his ceiling being a quality setup guy so I would've been interested at ~6M a year.  If I'm one of those "AAAA" types in MLB, I'm headed to Japan or Korea for a year or two to inflate my stats then come back to cash in.
Dave Cameron
12:07
People said this about Eric Thames last year too.
And Colby Lewis before him.
12:08
And all the good Japanese arms who have come over and signed for nothing, then spent a decade being awesome.
Jeremy
12:08
Was looking over the top 50 free agent list, and thinking about a few of the minor deals so far for a few pitchers (Fister, Minor, Otero). I understand limitations from the 40 man roster, but what is stopping a team with limited pitching depth, and has money to spend but doesn't want to shell out for a premium free agents (my Blue Jays come to mind) from stocking up on these depth options. Give Fister, Chatwood, Cashner, Tillman, Neshek (Insert cheap depth option) a flyer over a 1-2 year deal, and odds are someone will pleasantly surprise you. You can never have enough pitching?
Dave Cameron
12:08
Otero wasn't a free agent.
And free agents generally aren't going to sign with someone to fight for a job.
12:09
So if you sign Fister or whoever to fill out your rotation, getting the other guys is now much harder, since all you're promising them is money and the hope that someone else gets hurt.
PTBNL
12:10
Loved your piece about the JBJ/Abreu swap. My question is, if the Red Sox do want to go after Abreu, what does a reasonable package look like?
Dave Cameron
12:10
Let the White Sox pick anyone from their farm system and then add some filler.
12:11
Boston's system doesn't have any guys I'd refuse to trade for Abreu.
Bearry
12:11
St. Louis misses out on Stanton. They turn the the Rays for their package of players. Archer, Colome, Sucre, and Longoria for Weaver, Reyes, Kelly, Helsley, Luke Voit, Jose Garcia, and Tyler O'Neill. Who says no?
Dave Cameron
12:12
I doubt the Cardinals do that.
Archer is good and Colome is nice enough, but Longoria is probably negative value at this point and Sucre isn't worth anything. Giving up Weaver/Reyes/Kelly/extra stuff for Archer/Colome is an overpay.
Bleh
12:14
If you're running a team like the Dodgers that just finished one game shy of a world series and returns essentially the same team, is your thinking: a) make minimal changes and hope the team produces the same way and gets back to the WS, or b) knowing you have such a good team already in place, make a big move (Stanton) to (hopefully) push you over the edge.
Dave Cameron
12:14
C) Make moves that return more value than they cost.
If you can get a good deal on Stanton, do that.
If you can get better deals on smaller moves, do those.
Hae-Lo Dee
12:14
You're handed a thousand dollars with the stipulation that it has to be placed on a bet for what team Ohtani signs for. Which team do you put it on?
Dave Cameron
12:14
Probably the Mariners.
Hae-Lo Dee
12:15
All of the pitcher contracts have seemed like steals so far, no?
Dave Cameron
12:16
Do we know what Minor got yet? I haven't seen that.
Fister was definitely a steal.
Mikolas probably was.
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