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Dave Cameron
12:32
The All-Star game becomes a problem, but you can get in almost as many games as now with a more regular rest, hopefully keeping guys healthier.
David
12:32
Surprising to see Maitan get almost half the bonus he got from last year after just a few months in rookie ball?
Dave Cameron
12:32
Nope. His stock is down and teams have less money to spend.
Bob
12:33
Happ + Almora for Archer. Who says no?
Dave Cameron
12:33
Rays should do better than that.
Matt H
12:33
What would a moderately optimistic estimate of Otani's 2018 WAR be?
Dave Cameron
12:33
+6
12:34
I think expecting him to be a +3 to +4 WAR pitcher is probably fair based on what he did in Japan, and he's almost certainly going to produce some value as a hitter.
So +4 to +5 is probably rational-ish, with +6 being a good outcome.
HappyFunBall
12:35
So last weeks JBJ for Abreu silliness got me thinking ... is Rusney Castillo tradable? Since he's never going to get called up, it's basically $37M of dead money for the Sox. If someone thought Castillo could put up 4-5 WAR in the next 3 years, and offered to take that off of Boston's books they might could get an actual value piece or two thrown into the deal. Or does Boston not care about untaxed dead money?
Dave Cameron
12:35
The problem is that he's not much different from a guy like Leonys Martin, who just signed for 1/$2M yesterday.
Why pay $37M for this skillset when you can get it for $2M?
12:36
And the Red Sox aren't going to care enough about untaxed savings to give up significant talent to move the money.
Bob Loblaw
12:36
If Ohtani's bat really plays, do you think anyone will do anything interesting with him like move him to the outfield/first and bring in a loogy for one inning of LHB/LHB/LHB, then send Ohtani back to the mound?
Dave Cameron
12:37
I doubt it. No one is going to want to risk injuring him to just get a platoon advantage for a few batters.
Maybe in the World Series or something, but not in the regular season.
John
12:37
Any guesses on guys getting extensions this offseason? I'm surprised theres been no rumblings on Kershaw considering he's only got a year left
Dave Cameron
12:37
Extension talks happen in spring training.
February/March is when teams do those deals.
12:38
Passan says Minor got 3/$28M.
That's no steal.
JC
12:38
The spot isn't right on the win curve, but do the Braves go shopping for a 3B in the "buyers" market? Pushing out Matt Adams & Jim Johnson clear a little under 10 mil that wasn't obviously going to go away, and unless AA has a lower payroll than the past, the need & assets to get one are certainly there.
Dave Cameron
12:39
I wouldn't go for an aging guy like Frazier, but if Moustakas ends up cheap, it wouldn't be an awful idea.
Rohan
12:39
Stanton's tax hit is $25M/yr based on his original contract. If a team trades for the entire remaining contract, would it take the same $25M/yr hit or the remaining $29.5M/yr hit?
Dave Cameron
12:40
The CBT calculation is based on what the team takes, not what the AAV was at time of signing.
Pops
12:40
If you're the O's, do you pony up the money to keep Machado for the next 10 years?  Or, trade him now for a package of prospects?
Dave Cameron
12:40
I'd pay a lot to keep him, but I don't know why he'd stay there. They're going to be really bad really soon.
Mike Rizzo
12:41
If I'm willing to trade Robles as the centerpiece of a major deal, who is the player I could get back who would do the most toward putting the Nats over the top?
Dave Cameron
12:41
Archer?
Rick
12:41
If Devers counts as part of the Red Sox "farm system" you've got a deal.
Dave Cameron
12:41
He does not.
The Man With No Name
12:41
Is Walker Buehler going to be a monster in a couple years?
Dave Cameron
12:42
Has to learn how to throw strikes, but maybe.
PTBNL
12:42
I'd say Groome would be on my do-not-touch list in the Boston system in an Abreu trade, but he did have a fairly mediocre first professional season so what do I know.
Dave Cameron
12:43
Yeah, 18 year old pitching prospects should rarely been untouchable, and he didn't do enough to make himself the exception.
Jack
12:43
Why are the Mariners considered the favorites? Is it simply geography and Ichiro?
Dave Cameron
12:44
There is a huge population of Japanese people and culture in the area.
If he puts a high value on cultural comfort, Seattle is tough to beat.
Eric R
12:45
Is Thames a particular good example?  218 wRC+ in April and then just 103 the rest of the way.
Dave Cameron
12:45
Distribution is irrelevant. He put up +2 WAR for $5M.
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