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Dec11 BHQChat
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Brent Hershey
12:02
Happy Chat Monday, all ... great to have you with us. Got some questions already, but seeking more so don't be shy. Should be a fun rest of the month for sure now that the Big Dog has chosen his new home. Lots of material to get through; lets head to it!
Porcho Villa
12:02
Great to have you back, Brent-- thanks for firing up the chat machine this early in the offseason!
Brent Hershey
12:02
Of course! Great to be back in this routine again, and will do so as along as the questions come through.
Porcho Villa
12:08
Starting my keeper deliberations early. 5x5 OBP / QS H2H league, can only keep three. Who are your top three from the following list (assuming each costs the same and prioritizing 2024 performance): Strider, Skubal, Eury Perez, Grayson Rodriguez, Nolan Jones, Royce Lewis, Heim, Tork, Yainer Diaz, Jarren Duran, Casas, Jordan Walker, Gorman
Brent Hershey
12:08
With only three, I'd just shoot for top-level established guys. Strider, Lewis, Skubal are first three of this group off the board via NFBC ADP, but I'm not a fan of Lewis' price really, and if we're gonna go two pitchers, I'd probably go with Grayson. Casas probably should be in there given OBP. Think I'd rather bet on Walker next step than Jones also (regression likely).
Give me Strider, Casas and Grayson.
Greg
12:13
Which rookies will have the biggest impacts this year?
Brent Hershey
12:13
We don't have our HQ100 finished yet, but via our list in the Forecaster (which IS 2024-only), the top 5 are Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Marte and Colt Keith. Langford, Chourio, Lawlar not far behind. Note the lack of arms ... I'm a believer that 2023 was an outlier as far as pure rookie pitchers who helped. Safer to stick with bats unless guys fall from ADP a lot. Did grab Paul Skenes in that situation in a recent draft/hold.
Jerry P
12:19
In a 15 team 8x8 keeper(15 keepers a team), would you consider keping MJ Melendez or Mitch Garver as your catcher(only start 1 C) in 25th round or would you throw both back in pool
Brent Hershey
12:19
Caveat -- I'm not super tuned into 1-CA leagues, but seems like give the newfound depth of the position, neither would seem worthy of rd-25 spot. Think you could find better backstop before that range. Maybe Garver if he's your last keeper and you want to roll the dice on his health. But for in-draft flexibility, don't know that locking up either one ahead of time is a necessity. (Also MJM not CA-elig in most leagues, but I'll trust your word on this one.)
Tom
12:19
Are you a Blink 182 fan?
Brent Hershey
12:19
Sorry, I am not
Brent Hershey
12:19
Not anti-; just indifferent
Pedro
12:24
Brent.  This is heresy, but should there be a bit of concern about Luis Castillo this year? Barrell rate has gone from 4.5% to 9.4%, hard hit rate from 36.7 to 41.8% and HR rate from .91 to 1.28% the last two years.  Thanks in advance
Brent Hershey
12:24
Nah, no heresy here; questioning everything is what the (early) offseason should be about. Think perspective is key — Castillo ran into some luck in 2022 esp w/r/t HR rates. When you take that season out, 2023 is in line with earlier in his career. Also ... his changed pitch mix over that time (fewer change-up) makes 1:1 comparisons a bit more shaky IMO. In a way, you're comparing two different pitchers. BUT ... he is 31, and if you're in a redraft, there are other really good options in his range. If in a keeper situation, I don't see major red flags that would say 'sell,' though. Hope this helps!
ChrusGallo
12:26
Your thought Brent, on the Ohtani deal?
Brent Hershey
12:26
Lotsa dough, be it in 2023 or 2033! Was an expected destination; I was surprised by the total value. As others have smartly said, I think it means LAD is convinced that he'll be able to pitch effectively for at least a portion of that deal.
Steve
12:28
Traditional 12 team 5X5 AL-only Keeper League.  Keep, Trade or Cut pitcher edition:  Brayan Bello $6, Bryan Abreu $3, Aaron Civale $11 and Jose LeClerc $1?
Brent Hershey
12:28
No straight cuts here, as even Civale should have some trade value. Thus,

Bello: Trade
Abreu: Keep
Civale: Trade
Leclerc: Trade if you have another saves source. Keep if he's you're main option (other than Abreu)
Randy L
12:31
Casas or Vinnie P in dynasty formats?
Brent Hershey
12:31
Casas for me. Think the Sox will be better sooner than KC, and a bit surprised (given current ADP) how many folks seem to draft like Vinne's shoulder will bounce back to pre-injury status. Maybe it will ... but it doesn't always. Feel like Casas is safer.
Randy L
12:33
Baseball Forecasters shipping out this week?
Brent Hershey
12:33
Yes! They have been spotted "in the wild" over the weekend. Should be just a day or two for those needing the ink-and-paper version. Another goodie, of course.
Brent Hershey
12:34
If anyone still needs to order a Forecaster, here's the spot to do it. Should still get to you by the end of this week/
Greg
12:40
What positions are scarce/flush this year?  Same question for 5x5 categories.
Brent Hershey
12:40
In a couple early drafts, I find outfield thins out quicker than I expect. I think part of this has to do with more MLB platoons, but that's just a guess. In a Draft/Hold, you can live with some of those players (shift in/out of lineup depending on schedule/matchups), but in more traditional leagues you may want to be aware of grabbing full-timers a bit earlier than you might think. Also after a certain point, SS drops quickly as far as projected value. I try not to wait too long there.
And mentioned this above, but CA is as deep as it's been in a while. Don't feel like there's a pressure/need to get one of the top guys; there are good options in the middle rounds (doubling up there for 2-CA leagues can be a good option).
Categories ... nothing I've noticed specifically — SBs totals have gone up, so it's trying to stay mindful of that throughout. And I wonder if the relative stableness of closers and saves is a one-year anomaly.
zeeksam
12:43
Where do you think Ohtani might fall in redraft leagues, as a hitter for 2024? Thx
Brent Hershey
12:43
He's been in the pick 14-16 range so far, but in that lineup, I'll bet he will rise some. It's important to consider, however, that no one knows what type of surgery he had on the elbow. There's a chance that he misses more time than we anticipate (and frankly, a Top-20 pick might be worth). Could be that he's ready opening day, but we just don't know. Hopefully more info will come out now that he's signed and we learn more about the process.
Randy L
12:46
Bryson Scott and Josh Naylor made nice strides this past season but they are not being ranked accordingly to this point. Is there more room to grow?
Brent Hershey
12:46
From my perspective, yes. Naylor's is a health thing, to me -- he's had dings for a while, which may have affected his projected PAs for 2024. But if he stays upright and healthy all of this season, the numbers could be really good. Stott is just a learner and has the great-AB foundation. I'm not saying there's superstar upside, but I do think there's another level in both BA and pop that will emerge sometime in the next 2-3 seasons. And obviously his SB numbers surprised most of us in 2023. Two good players with "up" trajectories in 2024 IMO.
AI
12:48
When will the website be updated with the new player projections?
Brent Hershey
12:48
Getting close ... we are aiming to have those live in about one week's time. Our Playing Time Analysts have been keeping up with the moves so far so that when they hit the site, that projection set will be ready to go. And from then on ... we keep tabs all winter and then camps will be open before we know it! Great time of year.
Brent Hershey
12:50
Think that'll about wrap it up... thanks to all for the great questions. Will be back next week -- I'm sure with a bunch more moves to chat about. And always open to keeper and more general questions also. Thanks, all ... see ya next Monday!
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