You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Dec4 BHQ Chat
powered byJotCast
Brent Hershey
12:03
Happy Chat Monday, all! After, what, an 8-week break, we're back, and ready to talk some fantasy baseball. Winter Meetings, early player movement, early drafts, Forecaster (which is on line to ship this week) ... there's tons to talk about! Here on the site, we're started our Organization Reports (prospect rankings) with a free look at the Dodgers today. All 30 teams get covered in the next six weeks, so perfect time to consider a site sub if you haven't partaken yet.  Let's jump in!
Steve
12:06
12 Team AL Only Traditional 5X5 keeper league - Keep, Trade or Cut the following guys in an effort to maximize the offense while using some of these to upgrade my starting pitching:  Taylor Ward $4, Jose Siri $1, Jordan Westburg $5, Manuel Margot $1, Austin Wells $4 and Steven Kwan $12?
Brent Hershey
12:06
Some good ones here:
Ward - keep
Siri - trade
Westburg - explore trade, keep if not
Margot - cut (unless you can find trade)
Wells - cut (think he can be bought back cheaper)
Kwan - borderline keep or cut. Kinda depends on the rest of your OF. If he's your main OFer, I'd cut. If you have a basher or two, might be more inclined to keep. Good luck!
Garry
12:09
Which players are trending up due appearances in winter ball or the AFL? Also are there any driveline tidbits you can share?
Brent Hershey
12:09
Quick winter ball notes: Junior Caminero still smashing; Grissom playing OF for possible role there in ATL.
AFL: I'm not as sold on Manzardo/DeLauter hitting the ground running as some. More future than present plays for me.
Driveline: Intrigued by Goldschmidt sighting; JP Crawford re-do intriguing.
Michael W
12:14
Brent, Missed these Monday chats. Absolutely made my day when I saw this one announced. Late last night I saw the Braves/Mariners trade and wondering what your thoughts are for Kelenic and Grissom for 2024.
Brent Hershey
12:14
Mentioned the Grissom news above; the fact that he did so well in 2023 in Triple-A with the bat and now ATL is talking about trying him in the OF gets my attention. Yeah, could be a platoon w/ Kelenic, but after JK's struggles with non-fastballs is still an issue.There's talent there of course, and he's still young, but really want to see more than just one hot month (April 2023) before investing too much draft capital here.
Chris C
12:18
Thanks for the chat and love HQ...16 tm dynasty 6x6 ops holds: How is Outman looking in the projections for this season in your opinion and could B. Naylor out-produce Sal Perez this season? Thank you
Brent Hershey
12:18
Thanks for shout-out! We've got Outman in the 20 HR/15 SB range, but that strikeout rate is still problematic. Improved it a tinge in the 2H, but until he takes some steps forward there, he'll maintain a considerable amount of BA risk.
The Bo>Sal situation is possible, in part b/c of the potential SB that Naylor brings to the equation. But I'd still say Perez is more likely to out-earn him this season ... and he seems to be at a good value spot in early drafts right now.
Todd
12:22
Give me a few picks for breakout pitchers that aren't currently slated for Opening Day rotations?
Brent Hershey
12:22
"Currently slated" is a tough call right now, but some back-end/ swing and/or MiLB guys I'm intrigued with are Louie Varland, AJ Smith-Shawver, Cade Horton and Will Warren.
Joey
12:24
Given all the small moves the braves that made comma do you think they will actually spend the cash to get a free agent starting pitcher?
Brent Hershey
12:24
Yes, though I doubt it will be in the top tier; and it may come in a trade (Cease, for instance) rather than a straight signing. But seems to me that the fact that they are taking on $ in the Kelenic deal indicates they have some financial wiggle room.
Randy L.
12:30
What are the key indicator stats for pitchers and hitters to look at during draft prep season? Also, where is a good place to start your offseason draft prep process? I find myself always looking to read player profiles as the way to kick off my draft prep, however, this offseason I’m looking to dig deep into my own player profiles and then compare them to the expert opinions. Just a challenge for myself this offseason. Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:30
Good question. For pitchers, K-BB% is popular for a reason, that's always a safe start. Also like to look at expected estimators (we have an xERA metric at BHQ; Statcast has one also; there are others) in comparison to actual ERA. Getting a sense of a pitcher's arsenal, also is helpful -- how many pitches he has; how effective they are (swinging strikes on a specific pitch is good).
Hitters: In a similar way, controlling the strike zone, ability to make contact, and a quick peek at hard-hit metrics (HH%, exit velocity) on Statcast is a good starting point.
I'd definitely encourage your plan of (depending on your time restrictions) doing some digging on your own first, note what you see and maybe expect, and then cross-reference that against Forecaster boxes or other player blurbs from places you trust. Being open to that process, and recognizing where and how you agree or disagree with other smart people is an admirable process. Good luck!
Rob B
12:37
Which players really stood out to you in a positive or negative way during your review of the Baseball forecaster player blurbs?
Brent Hershey
12:37
Another great question... tons of them but here's a few:
Positives (better support metrics than I realized): CJ Abrams, William Contreras, Logan Gilbert, Nick Pivetta
Negatives (still good players, but not as much underlying support as I had thought): Cole Ragans, Daulton Varsho, Matt McLain, Nolan Jones.
Greg
12:39
Trade or Keep:  Blake Snell and Adolis Garcia.  Given how well they did last year, is regression assured?
Brent Hershey
12:39
Snell is a trade for me for sure. Just don't trust the innings, and feel like you can always find someone who values him anyway
Garcia - would keep ... but with a big caveat that I think the SB are likely gone for him; IE I consider him a big power, .250-BA hitter right now.
Guest
12:46
Brent, fantasy baseball is drowning in numbers, metrics, podcasts and so on making it harder and harder to keep up.  How do you personally cut though the BS out there
Brent Hershey
12:46
Pick a small handful of sources you trust and focus on them. You soon get a feel for writers/podcasters/etc who continually bring up issues, players, whatever that helps to widen your circle of understanding of the this game. Focus on that, rather than the "what if I miss something?" feeling. This should be an enjoyable hobby, not something that is made up of "should have"s. It's not easy; good luck!
Dylan L
12:46
Where is Ohtani going?
Brent Hershey
12:46
No inside info, but still think the Dodgers make the most sense.
Timmy
12:50
Give me your outlook for Colt Keith. Think he starts with the Major league club? Is he a top 200 guy for 2024?
Brent Hershey
12:50
Top 200 prospect, yes --- I still think he's likely a Top 100 for me (haven't done those rankings yet). I don't think he starts with DET. Was surprised with the year he had with the bat, that he didn't get a September look. Which tells me there's other issues -- and reading between the lines, it sounds like he's more of a 2B long-term than 3B. Which would make keeping him down for defensive reps a plausible explanation. I still like the bat a ton—there's both a hit tool and power there—and think he has a good shot to be part of this DET rise that I think is coming the next few years. We'll just have to be patient. If he starts hot, could well be early-season call-up -- but by the All Star Break for sure, I'd think.
steve b
12:53
Hi Brent,what do you think Casey Mize will do this year ?Worth a late rd pick in a 12 team ?
Brent Hershey
12:53
In 12 mixed, yeah, I think he's worth a late stab. But you do that knowing that most of your late rounders are cycled through in the season ... so just be willing to move on in that format if need be. I probably like Mize more than I should; pre-injury I thought there were some small steps he was making towards being a mid-rotation guy. Which is still how I think we need to view him, despite the 1-1 hype.
Ed
1:00
Which prospects in HQ's Top 30-50 range do you think have the best chance to leap into next year's Top 5-10?
Brent Hershey
1:00
By "next year" not sure if you mean top 5-10 in 2024 or 2025. We haven't done our 2024 rankings yet ... regardless, will attempt to ID some risers that hopefully will help:
  • Ethan Salas, C, SD
  • Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, MIN
  • Cade Horton, SP, CHC
  • Top 5 or so of 2023 MLB draft (Skenes, Crews, Clark, Jenkins etc)
Ben K
1:01
Zack Gelof outlook?
Brent Hershey
1:01
Believe more in the speed than in the power; hope he can make better contact overall. Should play for sure in OAK, but counting stats will suffer a bit b/c of surrounding lineup.
John S.
1:02
I have a tough call to make... can only keep either Jackson Merrill or Brooks Lee. What do you think I should do? Who has the higher ceiling?
Brent Hershey
1:02
I'd prefer Merrill -- think there's a bit broader skill set there for fantasy value. But it's close.
Brent Hershey
1:02
Thanks, all ... great way to spend a December hour. We'll hit it again next week, and pretty much every Monday from here on. Catch ya soon, and happy digging and/or drafting!
Connecting…