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Division Series Live Chat - 10/5/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:59
Hello folks, and welcome to a day of baseball madness, with four Division Series games piled high starting with the Indians and Astros at 2 PM. I'm the starter today, not the opener. Hopefully I'll be able to give you several good innings of delightful commentary.
Klubot
1:59
How much of a factor do you think Kluber's hard hit % will be today? His rate this year is his career high
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
I'm less worried about Kluber's hard hit rate and more worried by the fact that his 7.7% drop in K rate was the majors' largest for anybody with 150 innings last year and this one. Number two on that list? Kershaw, with a drop of 5.9%. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/season-stat-grid?position=P&seasonSt.... Both are still excellent pitchers, and perhaps the hard-hit rate for Kluber is  as indicative of a decline as the K rate is, but the rest of his numers say he's still a vary valuable pitcher.
TJF1777
2:02
Have the Yankees ever played the Red Sox in the playoffs? Didn't see any articles on it this week
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
I can't tell if you have the sarcasm font on or not, but to answer you in earnest: three times, all in the ALCS: 1999, 2003 and 2004.
BK
2:02
I'm just a sad Braves' fan looking to watch some more baseball and wallow in my sorrows
Sean Dolinar
2:03
Hi everyone! I'll be around this chat again. At least in the afternoon.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:03
That had to be a rough game for Braves fans because there really wasn't much to take from the game in a positive light other than the pitchers after Folty faring reasonably well in their first postseason exposure.
jkim
2:03
I calculated the slashline of the 8 dodger starters w/o Ryu last night:

0.261/0.352/0.495

Giancarlo Stanton this season:

0.269/0.343/0.509

They were trotting out 8 Giancarlos in their lineup. Again, how did this team win only 92 games??!!!!!!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
Injuries. Recall that Turner missed the first 40 games of the year, and Seager played just 26. The Dodgers were 16-26 through their first 42 games; they had the NL's best record after that (76 45)
Paul
2:06
Rockies starting Parra, Dahl on bench. WHY?!?
Brooks
2:06
Re : bullpenning, how far along on a continuum do you think we are to seeing a fundamental change in pitcher usage?
Sean Dolinar
2:06
How far along?  What would the far end of the continuum be? All relievers?  Pitching has been evolving a lot. I still think starters will be important through out the season for a while given roster restraints.  I'd be curious to see what rule changes occur to guide the evolving of pitching.  I don't think the game needs more pitching changes. Especially intra-inning changes.
McGirkTheJerk
2:10
Why no Walker Buehler for NL ROY?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:10
I think he's got a spot in the discussion, particularly given that neither Acuña nor Soto played a full season, either, and you can say the same thing about Flaherty. So much of the attention has revolved around the two hitters, particularly with Soto setting a wRC+ record for teenagers (145)
stever20
2:11
what's amazing about the Dodgers- if they don't have September callups- they probably don't even make the playoffs.....  19-9 with them.  They have so much more depth that it makes more of a difference for them over anyone else....
jkim
2:12
Why are Indians favored on the fangraphs playoffs odds page when the Astros were favored yesterday?
Sean Dolinar
2:12
We always don't have exact reasons why the playoff odds change, but we looked at that and concluded it was the depth chart adjustments for the playoffs that caused the shift.  It is interesting how high the projections are on the Indians; the season-to-date mode shows the opposite.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
except that they used virtually no substitutions in the lineup in their tiebreaker win or in Game 1. When they're healthy, they're the most talented team in the NL, and right now they're pretty healthy (the absence of Seager being the obvious exception)
Josh
2:12
Jay as you know Rockies are facing the Brewers and a RHP in Chacin today
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
Whoops, did I biff that one. ouch. Too much baseball in too few days.
2:13
Let's try that again: "Rockies starting Parra, Dahl on bench. WHY?!?"

Because Dahl isn't all that good? https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-few-quick-thoughts-about-the-rockies...
stever20
2:14
Buehler didn't have a full season either though- he made 23 starts- or missing about 1/4 of the season.  Soto played 116 games and Acuna played in 111 games.
Mister Puppy
2:14
Alright fellow neutral observers: who we pulling for? I really like the Astros, but it would be cool for Cleveland to get back to the WS
Sean Dolinar
2:14
Cleveland...A repeat would be boring. Also let's do a poll!
Neutral Observers: Who do you want to win this ALDS?
Astros (28.5% | 59 votes)
 
Indians (71.5% | 148 votes)
 
Total Votes: 207
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
That was part of my point, in case it wasn't clear. But what Soto did was historical. That said, I think Buehler has the capability of beingn part of Cy Young discussions once he ramps up to a full workload.
2:15
wait, no way for neutral observers to root for Switzerland in that poll?
GERB
2:15
Verlander has been historically pretty mediocre against the Indians... Does this matter at all for todays game? Or just a coincidence
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
I tend to think it doesn't matter, particularly as they're not In Cleveland. It's not like the ballpark is particularly unfavorable to him, and while I haven't looked, I'm not sure many of the Indians have long histories against him.

Wait, they are playing the Indians, right? Just checking myself.
michael16
2:17
When Kershaw made the "I don't have anything to prove" comment, everyone freaked out.  But isn't he completely right?  Yes, he is not the same Clayton Kershaw in the postseason and doesn't have a ring, but he has gotten extremely unlucky with relievers giving up his runs. And i also feel that we forget his great games.  Games 1 and 7 v Houston, has shut down the Cubs, won elimination games, etc.
Walter Benjamin
2:17
Is this the best day of the year for watching baseball?
Sean Dolinar
2:17
I think so. Postseason baseball is amazing.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
Re Kershaw: and the save vs. Washington in the 2016 division series. So much focus on the few boxes he hasn't checked rather than the ones he has, and the extent to which his teammates haven't always risen to the occasion.
2:19
Agree with Sean, this might be the best day of the year for baseball.

Alas I won't be able to marinate in all four games today, just the afternoon ones. I am obliged to attend a wake for a college friend tonight, which just flat out sucks.
Walter Benjamin
2:20
When will wrc+ or a similar stat appear on tv screens? When will it push out BA? 3 years for the former, 20 for the latter? Tired of seeing AVG. behind the names in the lineup, especially with teams like the Rockies
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
Well, we can hope that the nerdcasts like the one Mike Petriello was involved with for the NL Wild Card game the other day catch on. barring that, maybe we'll at least get better stats on the second-screen experience.
Sean Dolinar
2:23
OPS might get there sooner, though.
Randal Grichuk
2:23
Is kipnis really their best option in center?
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