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Eno Sarris Baseball Chat
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Archie
12:20
Who has the higher ceiling between Austin Meadows & Manuel Margot? Higher floor?
Eno Sarris
12:20
I'll give Meadows higher ceiling because I think that approach and body can lead to better power than Margot. But Margot might have higher floor if Meadows has to move off center and can't hit for the power we project him into.
Owen S.
12:21
Been a Fgraphs reader for a long time and have always preferred FIP WAR to RA WAR. Recently, however, I've been starting to question myself. While I still believe that FIP WAR is usually better at illustrating a pitcher's true talent level, and is thus more predictive than RA WAR, I am starting to wonder why we don't primarily use something more descriptive. After all, we use descriptive stats like wOBA and wRC+ for hitters, when instead we could create a more predictive version that normalizes things like LD% and BABIP, factors somewhat out of a hitter's control. So why the double standard? Also, WAR is supposed to be an account of what happened, no? Not an account of what should have happened.
Eno Sarris
12:23
I agree, so I often sort by RA9 WAR for award discussions, at least initially. But! The thing about pitching is that 'what actually happened' includes wondering 'who should get credit for what actually happened.' it's not as much about 'normalizing' for predictive use when talking about the past for pitchers, it's about making sure we give the pitchers the right credit for doing what they do. Which is super hard, and I don't believe anyone has figured it out all the way.
12:24
DJ
12:24
"X number of years is a terrible investment because the backend of the deal will be a disaster"
Eno Sarris
12:25
It's just default analysis that people break out on every single long deal. We know! It's the price of business. Teams try to get as much surplus value on the front end to pay for the extra years and money at the back end that it takes to sign the pitcher.
Mike
12:25
What's your perspective on Shelby Miller? I feel like I've read everything from innings eater past performance to pending breakout ace.
Eno Sarris
12:26
I thought he could do what he did last year if he just threw more high fastballs, ditched the change, and threw more cutters. So he did all that and was better. I think he can mid-threes with a league average strikeout rate. That velocity should help him suppress HR/9 according to research, so I'll take the under on his projected HR/9.
Guest
12:26
How did you adjust from moving from the East Coast to West Coast? I moved from Boston to San Diego...it feels weird.
Eno Sarris
12:27
It's strange waking up and getting to work and like 2/3 of the country is post lunch. But I do like watching baseball at 10 and 4.
Hack Wilson
12:27
First time otto leaguer. Keep a $13 Ryu and/or $8 Wood with a staff of Archer, Lester, Thor, Salazar, Wacha? Plenty of cap space.
Eno Sarris
12:28
At least Wood is healthy and has a useable projection. Ryu just started long-tossing, that one you'll have to wait as long as possible to get more news on his shoulder.
Tom
12:29
Would Joe Kelly be an immediately dominant relief pitcher?
Eno Sarris
12:29
The problem is that he has no command of his only okay secondary pitches, so he'd still be predictable and all about that gas. But he'd be a lot better than he's been as a starter, yes.
Bob Loblaw
12:30
Do anyone *need* Heyward as much as the Cardinals? They cannot hope to repeat in MLB's best division w/ an outfield of two decent sophomores and an aging Holliday.
Eno Sarris
12:30
I suspect this is where the Price money will go now.
Hooha
12:30
How do the Nationals rebound after last year's calamity?
Eno Sarris
12:30
Still a good lineup for the most part, with some interesting young players now ready to perhaps help more than their projections (Taylor and Turner). Still a really good rotation with Joe Ross coming now. Those deals they made for youth are going to help them now.
Hooha
12:31
Loving Islay region Scotches (Lagavulin, Laphraig, etc). Is there any other scotches or whiskeys that you would recommend giving a try?
Eno Sarris
12:31
Caol Isla is the only Islay that I've had that beats those two.
JV
12:31
Are you at all nervous about Huston Street heading into this season?
Eno Sarris
12:31
Always. Major health risk.
Matt
12:32
Know of any homebrewing major leaguers? Or beer geeks?
Eno Sarris
12:33
Corey Knebel on the Brewers home brews! Sean Doolittle loves Bay Area craft beer. Adam Lind says he loves beer but not really IPAs.
Snarfle
12:33
I think the tragedy you are referring to was in Norway, but either way, I doubt they've had anything similar since then.
Eno Sarris
12:33
Apologies. Did not sleep much last night.
Jason Heyward
12:33
Is there any chance at all that I play for the Mets?
Eno Sarris
12:34
Doubt it but a boy can dream.
Jack
12:34
What type of return can the A's expect for Lawrie?
Eno Sarris
12:36
Depends on what the other team thinks of public defensive numbers. He's an average guy on offense, with a little hope for power growth in different park or just because he's still only 25. If he can be average (and he looked a lot better at second base to my eye) with glove, he could be a two-to-three win player under team control. Should get something interesting back, if not a team's top prospect.
Pete
12:36
Should the Padres be interested in Alvarez or maybe Carter? I know, I know...Myers is moving to first probably (maybe keep him in LF until Renfroe is ready and then CF (eek)). But I would love to add legit 30 HR power to their infield. Does Alvarez or Carter make any sense, or am I fooling myself?
Eno Sarris
12:37
Pirates fans tell me there's no hope for Alvarez with the glove, but obviously the Padres think differently about defense than many teams. I think he does make some sense for them.
Nelson
12:37
Do you like Aaron Alther as a deep league sleeper? Maybe .250 15/15?
Eno Sarris
12:38
He's projected into that sort of work, but I'm nervous about a righty guy with a fringe bat. Could end up on wrong end of platoon.
Jake
12:38
Do you think we start to see salaries for mid to upper level guys in organizations (scouting directors, coaches, baseball ops head) explode in the next five years? There's more than a lot of research suggesting low salaries for these guys are the lowest hanging competitive edge fruit.
Eno Sarris
12:39
I've had a front office person tell me this is the best place to invest, so I agree that it's a possible place to make a difference in the development process. But 'explode' is a strong term for a group of people that don't make a ton of money.
Anonymous
12:39
One time I got stoned and thought about how it would be funny if there was a bad player who was the opposite kind of fish from Mike Trout and later I realized it is Mike Carp.
Bork
12:39
David Price will opt out in 3 years and join Alex Anthopolus and the Montreal Expos.
Snarfle
12:40
Here's what going to the mall is like. Arrival: Okay, I'm going to get one of those big packs of socks and that thing for the kitchen. 0:10: Hey look at all these places we could get lunch! I suddenly have the desire for a large, flavored coffee drink! 0:33: You know, I could use another somewhat nice shirt. 1:12: Lunch. 1:44: My legs feel weary, so maybe--wait that store has a slinky in its front window. 2:15: Where am I? Did we lose someone? Why did we come here? 2:47: Capi...capit...capitalism! That's the word! Wait, why I was saying that? Does America still have word sentences?
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