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Griff
12:27
Samad Taylor: thoughts?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
Lol, I watched him a bunch over the winter in Australia and though he barely looked like a prospect and now he's absolutely crushing it. I talked about him with a scout this week and we both were totally flummoxed by what's going on. He definitely needs re-evaluation but, based on my winter look, I'm skeptical.
Johann Sebastian Vogelbach
12:28
Is Josh Lowe's stock rising or holding so far this year? Love the average (cant imagine its sustainable) but its been great to see. Is he creeping close to the 55FV range at all?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
I think we'll just leave him near the top of the 50s. He's going to K a lot in the big leagues and might have some leaner years because of that. Remember FV is trying to generalize performance during pre free agency years, so the ebb and flow of a player like that regresses him to the mean. He might have a 5 WAR season in him, though.
Tim
12:29
Eric, A chat or two back, you mentioned Manuel Mercedes was “blowing the doors off”. Ok to ask you to expand a little on that?  Thanks
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
Yep, wrote a full report here and added my video. Daily Prospect Notes: 6/3/21 | FanGraphs Baseball
Scout I spoke with at the field yesterday said he was the best arm he saw out here during his 10-day stay.
Shiva
12:30
Surprising that Caleb Kilian isn't on the Giants BOARD. He's able to throw a variety of fastballs and has limited walks and HRs in his minor league tenure. What's your evaluation?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
Made a phone call on him this week and revisited my notes from the Fall, too. I had 91-93 with carry, shapely low-70s curveball too slow to have real impact, short slider with distinct shape but not a lot of movement, fringe change. His pitch data from this year indicated the same thing. I don't know how he's dominating like this because neither the eyeball eval nor the pitch data piece suggests he should be. I think I'd rather lean on those than just his results.
Fred
12:33
Is there any indication the O’s would take Leiter or Davis or are they dead set on cutting a deal no matter who is available at pick 5?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
We think there's a chance that they'd just take someone who fell to them if a top 3 player on their board got there.
Purple Mays Haze
12:33
In the minor leagues, if a pitcher is "enhancing" his arsenal with tacky substances, does the parent club "know"? What's the chance that an MLB club mistakenly thinks their pitching prospect is doing better than they "actually are"?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
Good question. I'd bet the answer is pretty variable, and it depends on who in the org you talk to. I bet a GM is less likely to know if a prospect, even a top one, has been using. The pitching coordinators and coaches are the most likely
Kate
12:35
Does Greg Jones need to cut the K rate in order to keep moving up the org ladder?  Or is this something where he needs to be at a more challenging level to be forced to make an adjustment like that?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
I think the latter. He had some support when we updated the 100, actually.
Jeff
12:35
How does Elijah Green compare to Harper at similar stages in development? Is Elijah more or less likely to go 1.1 than Harper was a year before his draft?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
Harper was as close as we'll find to power hitting christ. Green is very exciting but Harper was a slam dunk generational type, there's definitely a gap there.
Reginald Jackson
12:36
Stephen Ridings has been dominant at AA. With the triple digit fastball, is this a guy who could be a 35+ or “other prospect of note” if the control gains (1.06 BB/9) last through the summer?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
yep, he's one I have yet to ask around on. Saw he's dominating.
FatGreenPuppet
12:37
I enjoyed your Twitch discussion with Kevin in the archive and would really like to watch a two hour Twitch mock draft discussion.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
I think we'll eventually record most of the longer calls we make and maybe release them as part of patreon perks for KG's pod or something? I think you'll eventually get something close to what you desire.
Jim
12:38
Hey Eric, thanks for all the work you all do, super fun to read about this stuff. Saw that Roasny Contreras got a revision on the latest board, any comments as to how "real" this looks to you, or what might be different with him this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
Velo has exploded without taking away from the strikes, he's held it since he arrived in camp. That's basically it.
Nashville
12:39
Were you cringing as much as the rest of us watching Vandy push Jack Leiter over 120 pitchers? How do we continue to let college coaches abuse kids like this? Especially right before the draft.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
Nah, he was on like 8 days rest.
Henry
12:39
Is Soderstrom untouchable? Would the A’s move him to acquire maybe Story + Gray?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
I'd try really hard not to move him. You'd have to be very confident you could immediately optimize Gray to even consider that, I think.
Erik
12:40
How much does defense at 1B matter? If you take two 1B prospects who would be 50s with average defense but boost one guy's defense to 80 while the other guy's drops to 20, how much does that affect their FV?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
Ooooh, that's tough. My general feelings around 1B defense is that it's more important than the general consensus, but people (especially analyst types) tend to think the opposite. I'd round the 20 defender down to the 45s, that guy sounds like a DH. The 80 defender I think just stays in the 50s, like I'd still just 50 Evan White I think.
Rich
12:43
Have you heard/seen anything different on Julio Rodriguez? I know the results have been great - but has he improved his process at all since AZL/winter ball?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
Nope, same stuff. Which is fine, think we have him in a good spot.
Kate
12:44
For Cavalli, are you more concerned about the command or the injury risk?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
injury
Resolution
12:44
Do you feel the industry has generally been moving away from pitcher height as meaningful? I get that taller pitchers release the ball closer to home but there’s a lot of “pitcher X [never been injured] is 5’11” and considered an injury/reliever risk” opposite “pitcher Y at 6’5” should be a workhorse starter in the rotation [as soon as he returns from major arm injury]” in scouting reports despite all pitchers just getting injured.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
It doesn't feel like the industry is but I know I am. Shorter pitchers are more likely create flat, power pitcher's angle on their fastballs, their shorter levers mean less stress on their elbow (theoretically, since the formula for torque includes distance from the fulcrum), and they tend to be more athletic (though that's probably selection bias).
All that is to say, give me Ronny Henriquez long before Noah Murdock.
Jill Bames
12:47
Who will be five best position players of the 2020s by WAR, when all is said and done? Acuna, Tatis, Vlad Jr, Franco, Soto? Or do you think someone else will sneak in, even Trout?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
I'd put Will Smith in as a dark horse name, just because his playable power for that position is so rare. Verdugo maybe a sleeper, too.
barrust
12:49
What are your thoughts on catchers who play multiple positions. I am thinking Willians Astudillo, Brett Sullivan, and Ford Proctor types. Does this help allow a team to carry a third catcher since they can get at bats in other places?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
I'm all for it, esp once we have universal DH and the catcher becomes the player most likely to be pinch hit for.
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