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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:01
Good morning from Tempe, AZ
some quick plugs...
12:02
the next three draft class rankings have been updated and expanded: 2022 Draft Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs
International Players list will be updated Monday, then team lists start Wednesday (Angels)
JC
12:02
Is Jeremy Peña ready to start for the Astros opening day?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Yes, quality of contact in DR right now is not as good as last but still think there's enough SLG there to make him a 50 SS. Gonna be a great defender right away, hit a few extra pull-shots into the Crawford Boxes because of how his swing works.
JD
12:03
I suspect this is a common question:  are there any major pop-up prospects that you guys became aware of after the last 2021 update (e.g. Elly on the 100) but before you post the first 2022 lists?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
hmmmm, there are a bunch of guys who ended the year as 45s who I'm pretty sure I'll 50 this offseason (Stott, Winder, probably Foscue) but I can't think of a hueg pop-up guy off the top of my head
12:06
If there is one he probably plays for a FL-based club and I've yet to learn enough about him to say so right now
TBD
12:06
Has your opinion changed about Asa Lacy after his first year in professional ball?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
Not really, I think he ends up in a place like Skubal, Snell, etc., these other lefties who struggle to work efficiently but still miss a ton of bats and have impact rate stats. If he ever finds consistency then he's a stud.
Dave
12:07
Is Nelson Velazquez on the cusp of being a top 100 guy after the last couple of months?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
no
TBD
12:07
What are Pedro Leon's chances of reaching the bigs?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
pretty high, mostly because of the rare defensive flex he has as a MIF/CF. Don't know if his swing enables him to catch topside fastballs, probably a 4 bat with good power for his size, still in the 45 FV area for me after Fall League look
Bubba
12:08
Did we ever definitively learn what happened with Rocker?  Would the situation with the Mets make other teams cautious in considering him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
I'm not sure exactly what was seen on the MRI or whatever, and anything you'd hear from either side is compromised. The Mets want to justify their decision, Rocker's camp wants to reinforce confidence that he's healthy. I think whoever takes him next year knows they're getting a volatile prospect, but they already knew that before the Mets fiasco because Rocker's stuff has been up and down and up and down again several times since HS.
J
12:10
I don’t recall Pierce Coppola being a notable 21 draft name (compared to the others in the 24 board) did he blow up in fall ball?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
Correct, it's in his report on The Board (click the little clipboard)
PCH
12:11
When you evaluate prospects how much do you consider size in your FV? Seems like an old school valuation metric but I can't seem to get over the larger players seeming to break down more or is that just a type of selection bias on my part?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
Size factors into the evaluation but not directly into the *valuation*. People of all shapes and sizes can play our game well, so I don't really prefer guys be big or small. I'll say that I break from most traditional scouts thoughts when it comes to short hitters. Like I had a national crosschecker kinda laugh at me for having a 5-8 2B as the top player on my 2022 Board right now, but like, don't you wanna be on Jose Ramirez when he comes through? You're cool missing because he's short and pudgy? Seemed shortsighted to me.
More on size: athleticism is more important. I tend to be more confident in short-levered hitters actually hitting.
Wesley
12:14
The Mets signings create some questions about how they'll find room for prospects while in win-now mode. Do you think they'd clear room for Baty if he hits in AA/AAA? If his power takes a step, can he transition to the Show quickly or could the approach require a little patience?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
I'm actually leaving my Fall League look at Baty with more skepticism than I entered it. Really struggling to get the bat head out there and hit velo. I  don't think they have to add Baty for another year, they should just step back and let 2022 happen for him, if he kicks down the down, so be it
Tucker
12:16
Ryan Rolison has pitched well in LIDOM, is the arrow pointing back up for him? Does he have a chance to be a quality 5th starter next year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
He's looked okay. Don't think it's arrow up in a big way, he's a perfectly fine 4/5 starter.
Justin
12:16
How surprised are you that Cleveland chose to add Jhonkensy Noel to its 40 man roster, when he may burn at least 2 options before he might even be ready for the majors? (Assuming all this holds in the new CBA). Seems unlikely his profile ever gets taken in the R5.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
I think your premise for questioning it is valid, but scouts/FO folks i spoke with ahead of the protection deadline made it sound like he'd be popped if left unprotected
Ray
12:17
Did either Miguel Vargas or Andy Pages FV jump with their performances in 2021?
Vargas answered the power question and Pages answered the question on plate discipline.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
There have been pro-Vargas 50 FV arguments from my sources in the past. IDK, max 105 exit velo (which is indicative of like 40 raw power) from a guy who projects to play 1B? Love his feel for contact, think he's a big leaguer for sure, just maybe not a 2-3 WAR 1B every year with that kind of power.
Pages i'll just leave a 50 on, there's still K risk there.
Jose Ramos may be a 50 FV, that's a pop-up name for the guy who asked the earlier question.
Nico
12:19
How will the loss of draft picks impact the Rangers at 3?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
Maybe they're a little less inclined to get creative there since cutting an underslot deal doesn't mean you can use the pool space to scoop up several overslot guys later.
Guest
12:20
Hey Eric! Did Downs do enough in his AFL stint to help turn the opinion on him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
I'd caution against using AFL stats to judge anything, his swing is his swing and I'm not sure it'll actually play. He's a guy who I'll source very specific TrackMan data for this offseason. How does this guy do against fastballs 93+?
Justin
12:21
To your knowledge, did teams have any indication that the R5 was going to be "postponed indefinitely" before making 40 man roster decisions? If there's no R5 draft, seems like some teams might have made decisions differently. Surely there had to be some communication from the league on this?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
Yeah, teams knew it was likely to be delayed (my sources think it'll happen sometime in January, CBA dependent) but nobody ever thought, nor did they behave in a way that indicated they thought it'd be "cancelled", and "postponed indefinitely" is a more vague way of saying they just don't know when it'll happen and they're leaving the room for it to be cancelled if things go horribly awry with negotiations.
It would have been a horrible screwup to have not communicated that to teams. No Rule 5? Why bother protecting anyone then? It would have been a huge story.
Ziggy
12:23
Elijah Green isn't Jesus Christ...who would've thunk it. Tools don't always make the ballplayer
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