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Bill DeWallet
12:26
Masyn Winn changed his swing this spring, and he's been on a tear terrorizing pitchers ever since. Is he a top 50 next year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
will have to show more power for that sort of thing
Bill DeWallet
12:26
Why does FG give Jordan walker a 25/50 on hit?  Power aside, he's shown + bat to ball skills this year
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
I just haven't been able to update the hit tools for the guys who are close to the big leagues. It'll update when I do the Cards list. I standardized present hit and power grades for low-level hitters, 25 would mean an advanced teenage hitter. Once guys are at AA, I change it to whatever I think their actual present hit tool is, which for Walker would be a 40 (still more than average in-zone whiffs happening there)
Brian LaFebvre
12:28
Do you think the Phillies will continue their recent trend of drafting highly touted prep RHPs in the 1st? Have they figured something out or just lucky so far?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
I think their approach has been more opportunistic than it is focused on getting that sort of player.
Nat
12:29
Have you thought about quantitatively evaluating body-type descriptors for prospects (e.g. "projectable frame," "soft-bodied," "low center of gravity")? To see if these terms correlate with later performance, or moves in to lower or higher FV tiers, or anything else? I feel like you've been doing this long enough that there might be some interesting findings just looking back to your work. Or maybe looking at the other public prospect evaluators.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
I have and actually wanted to change the "Frame" column on the board to "ectomorph", "endomorph", "mesomorph" classifications during this list cycle but got pushback from others at the site (some of which aren't here anymore). So you just have the lever length and athleticism descriptors for now
Ben Schneider
12:30
How much stake do teams put into the combine?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
It's still so new, you not only need multiple years of data from the event, but years of the players' performing afterward to see what might correlate/be meaningful
12:32
it's just nice to see this tier of prospect all take BP, infield, and air it out for an inning at a time. Probably seen half a dozen guys who I'd give mid-six figures to
D backs fan
12:32
Buddy Kennedy. Statline in Reno seems just ok, but I see he has the blue arrow and moved from 35+ to a 40 and is now getting called up. What changed from off-season on him and what is the expectation?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
Don't think anything has changed with Buddy, more just me realizing this guy's done nothing but hit his whole life and buying that he'll find a way to be a big leaguer even though he may not  have a position.
Brian LaFebvre
12:33
What would it take for you to move Painter into the top 100? Phillies moved him up to High A pretty quickly.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
I think everyone's evaluation of Painter, their assessment of his ceiling, is about the same, but our "valuation" of low-level pitching is different. Been burned too many times (Puk, Whitley, Reyes, Alvarez, Martes, and on and on forever) to keep stuffing pitchers who are playing russian roulette with their arms once a week for the next half decade. Folks can get a better idea of where Painter falls among his peers by doing age-related searches on The Board. Like this:
12:36
SO, i think he's one of the 3 or 4 vest teenage arms in pro ball, i just value that group lower than most (i guess) because i'm adjusting to having been incorrect about this stuff in the past
Mike
12:37
Obviously it's just two early complex league games, but given that Jarlin Susana is already 18, he's probably headed to Lake E at some point this summer, right?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
Yes
DF
12:37
Casey Schmitt and/or Masin Wynn likely Top 100 guys for you now? Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
Wynn was added this week, did some work on Schmitt too and got more of a mixed bag from scouts/analysts
Doug Melvin
12:38
Been cramming draft content trying to get a read on what the overall feel is on the pitchers. Are a lot of these injured college arms going to be going in the 2nd round range? Seems fairly possible that a team might get rather lucky rolling the dice on one of these arms later on the draft possibly in the late 2nd? or do you think they mostly all go by the late comp rounds to early 2nd?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
I bet Lesko and Pallette go in the first
Guest
12:38
I know defense is a big question, but do you think Oneil Cruz's bat is ready to contribute in the majors?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
I don't know if it's ready but I believe he has nothing left to adjust to in the minors (offensively)
Jon G
12:39
Kyle Boddy has noted that by Driveline's xERA measurements, the Cubs have dramatically turned around the success of their minor league pitching. As the season stands now, does that success correlate to more of their guys coming onto your prospect radar?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
Yeah, really entering 2021 many guys were throwing much harder
Kevin
12:39
George Valera continues to rake. Is he still not top 100 material?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
he's on there, dude
Willy
12:40
Are draft boards going to be pretty set until July? Is it possible the draft combine pushes some guys into the first round? Can't imagine that a lot will change in the next month.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
Probably not up high except for maybe Whisenhunt, more changes from guys playing summer ball than the combine
Factory of Sadness
12:41
Trying to figure out player development is a neverending puzzle, of course, and y'all do it generally very well. But I'm curious as to how Oscar Gonzalez seems to have been overlooked by basically everybody outside the Guardians organization. There's still time for him to regress, of course, and it looks like it's already happening a little, but was he ineligible for the prospects list?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
Pretty sure he was eligible and I just thought his approach is so bad that I didn't include him at all. Big power, arm tho.
Fangraphs Fan
12:42
Any chance you can do these chats weekly? I'm sure I can speak for most people reading this that we really enjoy them.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
my goal has been to either do a pod segment, a yeoman's work, a stream, or a chat every week, but as I've lost the other 3 people working on prospect stuff with me I've had a hard time finding the bandwidth to do all that stuff. I appreciate that you like these and that folks understand why it's been a struggle for the last few months.
Josh
12:44
Should people be paying more attention to Andres Gimenez? He's quietly been one of the best all around players this year, when he's been in the lineup
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
Yes, surprised by the power. Had him in as a very low-variance 50 and looks like he might be better.
Slurms McKenzie
12:44
Is Jacob Berry worthy of a top-10 pick? Seems to be a lot of slipping in numerous sources because the hit doesn't outweigh the lack of other tools in their opinion.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
He'd go top 10 most years but there are so many good college bats who can actually play defense that he might slip out.
Scrapper
12:46
As a prospect guru, what biases do you think you have (either in favor or against a particular type of prospect)?
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