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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
Hi everyone, hope you've had a good week. Please check out my East division 40-man deadline day thoughts if you have not, more is on the way next week, and then we'll get into prospect lists.
Dan
12:04
Considering your top 100 ranks, do you see Joey Ortiz having a greater 2023 impact than Jordan Westburg?  Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Not necessarily. If Jorge Mateo keeps playing well but Ramon Urias does not while Westburg keeps raking in the minors, then I could see a scenario where Westburg plays and not Ortiz.
12:07
Ortiz skill foundation is partially his defense (the other is all the contact), and with the shift banned that becomes more important. His 50 FV is a bet on his long-term fit as an average everyday shortstop, Westburg certainly has more power than him, and his FV may change this offseason as my thoughts on what to do with these bat-first, shift-aided infield types solidifies.
Matt
12:08
Do you buy Jake McCarthy as an every day regular? I have a hard time believing his batted ball data will allow him to sustain his performance from last year
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
I agree, even though he's made some changes I think you have to lean on the xSLG, etc. to gauge how real the power output is. Probably a 4th OF type now, a half grade better than he was evaluated as a prospect.
Jon
12:10
Any thoughts on new Marlin Franklin Sanchez?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
Yep, good get for them. 95-97 with a hard slider (85-88) in my Fall League look, though slider quality was pretty variable. Great pitcher's frame. That org has needed more arm strength in the bullpen, they got it. Probably an up/down type initially, has the arm strength to establish a more prominent role over time.
I also really like Elieser Hernandez, btw, and think he's going to be a good MIRP for the Mets.
Mike
12:13
Hey Eric - are you planning to update the international players tab on the Board? Wondering about other higher profile players signing in January (and specifically any signing with the Red Sox). Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
Yes, I have a handful more bonus amounts I want to source and I have some players getting between 1 and 2 mil that I want to sift through again before publication, but updated draft and international lists will again kick off the list marathon.
Trayce
12:14
Thoughts on Nolan Jones for Juan Brito trade?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
Will have longer thoughts up on next week as al the transaction analysis from that day wraps, in short: I still like Nolan Jones and think he'll be good for the Rockies, while acknowledging the hit tool risk exists. I think it's interesting (and makes my opinion on this issue feel less good) that Cleveland seems to have the Benson/Oscar/Brennan group evaluated ahead of Jones. Or maybe they just really like Juan Brito (I know I do) and felt it was fine to part with Nolan.
Was one of my favorite complex hitters in '21, stuffed him.
Mike
12:18
Were you able to catch Nick Yorke at all in the AFL? Thoughts on his performance after a down year this season?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
Yes, I still don't love the infield athleticism and defensive projection part of Yorke's game, but his timing as a hitter is so damn good. I was compelled to slide him on the 100 after the year he had but he shouldn't fall off the 100 completely, I believe in the bat.
Matt
12:19
The Angels have been abnormally aggressive with their post-draft minor league assignments. Is this due to their win-now urgency at the big league level, a model inflation tactic, or some other reason?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
I think it's the former.
Bob
12:20
You’ve run Endy Rodriguez pretty high up the top 100. What type of player do you think he’ll be? Full time catcher? Rover? Full time elsewhere?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
I think it's primary catcher, they only gave him 2B run after promotion to Double-A, no more OF after the bump. I want him to rove, though.
12:23
Any time you have these plus athlete catchers with plus bat-to-ball, I'm all in. It's so hard to find offensive impact at that position.
In There Like Fred Astaire's Swimwear
12:23
What's your take on Josh Lowe? He busted in MLB but then went back to AAA and destroyed the ball. Is his K rate such that he'll never be more than he is ine majors? Or do you think he can still reach his ceiling?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
I'm very scared. He's not a good CF so there's no floor if he doesn't hit. Struck me as someone for whom big league pitching was too much, he looked so overmatched.
TJJ
12:24
hey, eric! have you had a chance to see samuel zavala play? was four years young for the level and seemed to hold his own in the california league. pitch recognition maybe not there yet, but a homer per twenty plate appearances was a nice surprise. do the pads have something? thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
Yes, saw him mostly during minor league spring training and extended ST before they sent him out. Not a ton of physical projection but has advanced feel for contact, physical enough to do doubles damage right now, sprays it all over. Third in the system entering the offseason: 2022 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs
Click the clipboard there and you'll get more info.
Taylor
12:25
How did Deyvison De Los Santos look in the fall league?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
70 power, 20 baseball feel. Tons of procedural errors on defense, bad footwork at first base, zero approach at the plate, just not a good baseball player right now, though he's incredibly talented.
Sodo Mojo
12:27
Where do you think Cooper Hummel fits in the Mariners next years? Insurance incase Murphy or Raleigh can't get back to health?  Last guy on the bench to displace Torrens? Something else?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
You try like hell to make him a part-time catcher, but mostly I think he just has a better chance of sustaining viable offense than Haggerty and Trammell in that extra OF role. If you get the part time catcher aspect as a bonus, great.
Sharp
12:29
Before the 2022 season you said Elly De La Cruz was a boom or bust guy. Did his 2022 season instill more confidence in you? The projections are looking good for him. I know the strikeouts are quite high but boy that power/speed/switch hitter skillet set is looking pretty sweet.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
Love him, he's a top 10 prospect now. Defense in LIDOM has been bad, and yes there are approach aspects that make him scary. Of all the minor leaguers though, he's on a short of guys who can be a 7 or better.
Dave
12:30
Chance that Maddux bruns starts?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
I don't think he's Sandy or anything, but as a five and dive type? 60%? His stuff is so nasty they have to try for as long as possible.
AAAA Marvin
12:31
Eric, thanks for the chat! Just how concerning was 2022 for TBR SS Greg Jones? Still listed as a 50FV, but this is a 24 y/o who struck out at a 36% clip in AA. Is the best realistic scenario that the speed gets him onto a roster as the 26th man?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
Jones has been a, "this guy's tools are so huge but he's raw" type of player for a while now, and there are people around baseball who simply think it won't ever come together for him, which I think at this point is a reasonable opinion to have. But I think the impact he would have if things do click is big enough that you just protect yourself for a year.
I don't expect him to be a big leaguer in 2023, purely a dev year on the 40-man
Ryan
12:34
Hi Eric! Of all the major prospects sites, you seem to be the low man on Jordan Lawlar. I'm just curious why you are so reserved on his future outlook.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
When I last updated the 100 I mentioned none of the Fall Leaguers would move since I was just about to see them all for six weeks. He was among them. He's really good. If I was reserved initially it was because I hadn't seen him handle pitches in on his hands, which he did in the AFL.
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