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Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
I do. He's such a good athlete and for years now has held his velo and thrown strikes despite some of the noise and violence in his delivery. I buy it.
Insert Witty Name Here
12:27
What could or are teams doing to evaluate HS pitchers so they don’t miss out on an Andrew Painter type?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
Meh, as good as he looks, let's remember how volatile pitching is as a thing. At one point Forrest Whitley and Sixto Sanchez and MacKenzie Gore and Alex Reyes and A.J. Puk and on and on were in the same position. Painter's career has just gotten going, he's not a huge "hit" already. He might be, certainly looks incredible, it's just that weird things tend to happen to these dudes, entropy.
12:29
To more directly answer the question, I'd take opportunistic gambles on HS pitching, which I think PHI has done in both Painter and Abel. They each fell too far because of their demo, PHI snatched them up and it feels good at this stage.
Keefths
12:29
How much of a stud is Hunter Brown going to be ?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
I have him 50'd and am sticking to it.
Nate
12:30
I’m not sure how much attention you paid to Jeremy Pena in the postseason…but considering how well he hit from about September on after he cut out his little leg kick, do you think that can be a more accurate gauge of what he can be now offensively? Or think he’ll crash back down to his projections again? Because they seem a bit…low. Seems like he’s bound to improve just by getting more experience against upper level pitching now too
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
I see what you're saying but also know that this guy has had a hard time laying off sliders for basically his whole life. He's a real dude, obviously, but I don't think he's a pound-for-pound replacement for Correa or anything like that. The projections see his walk rate (and associated metrics) and project regression, which is what my instincts would be, as well.
12:33
That you see a swing tweak there is definitely evidence that he's made an adjustment that might remedy some of that stuff, though. Those are things the projection systems don't see.
Carl
12:33
A lack of power might limit his ceiling, but even with that in mind it feels like Sal Frelick gets overlooked more than what makes sense to me. Those contact skills and that plate discipline, combined with positional/defensive/baserunning  valueand closeness to the majors surely makes for quite a valuable prospect, no?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
I agree and he's my type of guy, but if you look at the CF leaderboard, it's rare to find someone who isn't hitting for at least moderate home run power.
Guys like Nimmo and Mullins (though Mullins' big WAR year so far had lots of power) are fair precedents for what the high-end outcome looks like for somebody like Frelick.
12:35
And Nimmo has been a 45 for half his seasons: Brandon Nimmo - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball
J
12:35
Do you think gavin lux playable at shortstop? What about muncy at 2nd with thr new shift rules?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
No to both, imo
Guest
12:35
If Dominguez ends up a 5, does that mean he underperformed his bonus?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
Not from an ROI standpoint, maybe from a "these Int'l players got $5 mil" standpoint. Six years of team control of a 50 is worth like $100 mil.
Guest
12:37
Would an international draft make your job easier or harder?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
Good question, I haven't thought about that. I've learned enough about how to do it in its current format that initially it would probably be harder to adjust to a whole new thing, but if MLB takes more control over showcasing players (especially if it happens in the states) then I'd end up seeing more of that prospect contingent in person, which would be helpful.
Guy
12:39
What's the deal with Encarnaction-Strand?  He's hit everywhere he's played but most evaluators still say it's a below average tool.  Are scouts underrating him, or has he just been lucky and/or beating up on younger/less talented pitching along the way?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
77% in-zone contact rate in 2022, puts him at the very bottom of this group: Major League Leaderboards » 2022 » Third Basemen » Plate Discipline Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball
12:40
There's enough pop that I think he's a role player but not an everyday guy.
Like Pat Wisdom is a pretty good comp there.
Keefths
12:40
I just finished reading Future Value. Great book. What's my next baseball read ?
Eric A Longenhagen
barrust
12:41
I find it hard to believe that the A's took the best offer (based on FV) for Murphy. What do you think happened? Have you heard of better offers that were on the table?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
If the rumor Ben fed me on this week's FanGraphs audio is true (St. Louis, Nootbaar, etc.) I'd have preferred that one. But otherwise I have no idea.
RTJ
12:42
forgive me if you have written about this before. What am I supposed to think about Torkelson's outlook in 2023? If you were the Tigers, would you want to start him in AAA?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
He's a tough one. Both he and Kelenic seem to have the same problem: they lifted so much they became stiff in the lower half and can no longer bend to reach low breaking balls. Purely my opinion. Both seem to be hungry, competitive dudes so maybe they'll make adjustments. I'd see how he hits during the spring before assignment. Probably just want him up if you made me choose right now.
Jake
12:44
With the new bases/pitch clock/and pickoff rules how do you assess stolen base potential of prospects?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
I don't especially care about SBs because they've become such a small part of the big league game. You should always take the under on minor league steals when projecting them to MLB, the quality of catching and pitchers' ability to control the run game in most cases is on a way different level than in the minors.
Pirates Hurdles
12:45
One other Bucco question, I see Matt Fraizer still at 45+ after a horrible year in AA. Is that just an oversight in updating or is there something still there?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
He's due for an offseason adjustment
JJ
12:46
Why the 45+ and not the full 50 on Salas? Age? Sounds like he's the real deal.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
The demo is just so risky
Insert Witty Name Here
12:47
You getting help this year with the lists? I remember last year you lost some good people and a lot was put on your fingers. Hopefully you’re in a good headspace and just know that you’re a legend in our baseball community.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
Tess has had discussions with a couple of teams about full-time jobs. They should hire her, but if they don't it'll be Tess and I. It'll be good. Lotta writing but whatever, I've done it before.
Mike
12:48
Ethan Salas note has PG experience in it, do they run events internationally and is that common experience, or does he live or travel to the US and is unique among J2 guys with that experience?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
Sometimes int'l players come to the states and play in their events, they do nothing internationally as far as I know. The Bahamians and often players with family already in the MLB system (Ethan's brother is Jose with Miami, and there's a third Salas coming) tend to be the ones who play at PG events, usually in Florida.
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