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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
2:03
What's up, everybody? Baseball chat engage
Mike
2:03
Your Bryse Wilson-Michael Fulmer comp has me really intrigued. What is that based on? Velocity and GB rate? I was impressed with Wilson's first start.
Eric A Longenhagen
2:05
The body, the pitch mix and quality of the stuff, the limitations with pitch utility and repertoire depth. Lotta similarities.
Dan
2:06
Brailyn Marquez. Thoughts?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:09
19y/o Cubs lefty in short season. Thoughts are same as last year. Low-to-mid 90s, will show a 55 curveball and knows how to work it to both-handed hitters. I bet the changeup comes, he has good feel. Body went backwards from last summer to this year but it hasn't affected performance.
Chris
2:09
Any clue what has happened to Mickey Moniak as of recently?
Eric A Longenhagen
BryanH
2:10
Is Joey Curletta a legit breakout guy, a product of the Texas League, or just old for AA?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:13
I thought he was sentenced to play in the Cal League forever. He's a R/R DH with plus raw, and I am indeed skeptical of the rest due to age relative to level (he's 24)
RS
2:14
Logan Webb seems to have mid rotation or better type stuff, but no buzz, why?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:16
Had him 94-97 in the spring, plays a little below the velo. 55 slider. Delivery/command/injury history all add to bullpen risk.
2:17
BTW that's a 21y/o righty in the Giants system, only threw 21 innings in 2017, missed a bat per inning in the Cal League this year and was recently promoted to Double-A/
Anyway, I think we have him in the right spot here: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018updated&type=1&pos...
Tommy N.
2:18
Do short striders like Ryan Weathers have lower perceived velocity?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:18
Yes
Bread Gardner
2:19
What methodology do you use to come up with a player's FanGraphs PV/FV ratings (i.e. the ones we see on the player pages)?  Do the ratings change over time?  If they do, how so?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:26
It takes an entire article to properly answer this but, in short, we map the distribution of individual player WAR to the 20-80 scale. If we project a prospect to be an average big league regular (a 50, like 2.5 annual WAR or so) they're a 50. But if we have two players who project to be the exact same player and one is ready for the Majors and the other is in rookie ball, we have to account for that difference in time and certainty and so we dilute the latter guy's FV to capture failed dev, injury, and any number of other things that might pop up while that prospect crawls to the Majors.
2:27
We update what's on the prospect player pages once a year. If you see tool grades for big leaguers like this https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15998&position=1B/OF
2:28
that's what the tool grades and projection were when the player was a prospect, not what we think they are now
Though we might eventually do that for big leaguers where we update tool grades for them regularly
Kyle
2:28
Tyler Freeman is tearing it up in the short season A ball. What have you heard about him?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:30
This was one of Cleveland's three super young 2017 HS draftees, the most polished but least toolsy of the group. He's a potential 6 bat without power. Have him projected to 2B, not SS.
Eric
2:30
Do Blaze Alexander's tools match the production?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:31
The amateur side (and Kiley and I) were skeptical of the bat but the pro side think there's patience and power and he stays at short, so they don't care if it's a 40 bat, maybe below.
2:32
The tool profile looks like JJ Hardy (power, elite arm strength) but they don't play like one another, aesthetically.
Brandon J
2:33
In early May, you put a 55 FV on Walker Buehler and put his command at 45/50. Do you think those grades are still accurate?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:34
The 55 looks bang on. Walk rate has been better than average in the big leagues, average when you incorporate his minor league numbers. So...yes?
Mountie Votto
2:34
Jose Siri has been walking nearly 9% of the time so far this year. Is the improvement sustainable or just noise?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:35
I tend to think upticks of this magnitude will regress.
Bo
2:37
Any potential September call-ups that could affect a playoff race?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:37
I think Kiley and I are gonna podcast about this specific thing and AFL rosters once callups happen and rosters are released
Moose_Bolton
2:38
What was the last great non-baseball book you read?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:38
As I Lay Dying, which was great but not the least bit enjoyable.
Ricky
2:40
Is Peter Alonso good enough offensively to make a case to be a top 25 prospect?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:42
Well lets think about that. We have 21 60 FV or better prospects  (players we think are 3WAR studs or better, basically) on the board so what kind of offensive profile does a poor defensive 1B need to have to generate 3 WAR?
I'm kinda skeptical of Alonso being a top 3-5 1B
2:44
Which is basically what you're asking.
David
2:44
Been to AZ for Spring Training the past couple years (it's fantastic), but I'll be going to the AZ Fall League for the first time this year.  Any advice on differences between how to approach the two?  Is there any need to buy Fall League tix in advance?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:45
There's no need to buy Fall League tix in advance if you're worried about them selling out. They will not. But buying a season pass might be cheaper than buying individual tix for the games you wanna go to and getting tix ahead of time means you skip the daily line of walk ups.
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