JotCast | Eric Longenhagen Chat

Eric Longenhagen Chat

Eric A Longenhagen

2:02

Good morning from Tempe where we're approaching the Fall League halfway point. Let's chat for a bit.

NotGraphs Revivalist

2:03

What kind of prospect package would ATL or SD need to put together for Syndergaard?

Eric A Longenhagen

2:03

I'd be surprised if the the Mets move a big fish this winter. The new regime is going to be operating with incomplete information, there's real risk of making a bad deal.

Tommy N.

2:04

Padres ownership seems to want to make a splash this offseason. It would be unwise to start trading top prospects with where the Padres are at in the rebuild process, right?

Eric A Longenhagen

2:04

They have to start consolidating talent at some point and I do think we'll see some action this offseason, even if it's just on the fringe of the 40-man.

Ace

2:04

When evaluating pitching prospects, what mechanical aspects of a pitcher's delivery point to SP vs RP? Is it a certain arm slot, arm path, stride length, violent delivery, etc. Thanks

Eric A Longenhagen

2:06

Meh, as long as enough pitches play/the pitcher has a way of getting both handed hitters out and they can execute pitches, I don't care what the delivery looks like. Some violent deliveries take away from command in such a way that guys can't start, though.

Joe

2:06

What can we expect from Manny Margot going forward? Rough year, anything positive?

Eric A Longenhagen

2:08

Unless there's a swing change, he's probably a .380 slugger. He's probably just a 45 if that's the case. Has the physical talent to be better than that.

Andy

2:08

Eric. I may be way off here, but it seems like there's a lot more stolen bases in AFL than MLB. Are the catchers more susceptible? No rapport/chemistry between p&c? Or are the position players here more reliant on speed than at the MLB level?

Eric A Longenhagen

2:09

Because results don't matter here, I think players are encouraged to run down here. Which I like.

Anthony

2:09

Owen White have 2/3 starter projection?

Eric A Longenhagen

2:09

That's too rich for me, that's like a 4 WAR guy. #3, maybe. He's quite good, though.

ChatzMcGee

2:10

Does Kyle Wright throw a sinker? Pitchf/x classifies it as a 4-seamer but it has very poor vertical movement, is it just a flat fastball? Is that a problem?

Eric A Longenhagen

2:10

Yeah its effectiveness is more about the velo than its shape. I think it could limit how many bats he misses but still think he's a good big league starter.

Anthony

2:10

What do you make of Hunter Harvey at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen

2:11

He's a 45 for us: Big stuff, constantly injured, could pop and be really good while he's healthy, in whatever role.

Jon

2:12

heading out there next week. any SP's not named whitley, JBB, Duplaniter, muller etc to keep an eye on?

Eric A Longenhagen

2:14

I'd check out Yamamoto and Krook. They're both throwing in the upper-80s right now but it still might work. Krook's fastball has big bottom, Yamamoto can really spin it. Miguel Diaz has monster stuff and is down here, Nate Pearson you didn't list but probably know.

Jonathan

2:14

Everyone in NY is making a big deal of Alonso's statcast NY Met speed record double yesterday, but can you put it into context against the entire league and history of statcast? How elite is it? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen

2:15

I didn't see his exit velos yesterday but you can slap 80 raw on him if you want. Exit velos in the 115+ range are nutty.

Robby

2:15

What is your take on Chris Paddack? They say he has a great change, but he lacks a true 3rd pitch. Can he be a real productive starter in MLB with 2 really good pitches and great control or does he have a servicable/good 3rd pitch in him that can take him to another level?

Eric A Longenhagen

2:16

First I'd ask who is 'they' and then I'd refer to Luis Castillo's 2017 as evidence that a two-pitch guy can succeed, and Castillo has worse control and worse fastball plane than Paddack.

Robby

2:16

Which prospects seem to be off limits for Padres to trade? Are there any prospects they seem less or more bullish on than Fangraphs

Eric A Longenhagen

2:17

I can't speak for SD but I doubt they'd move the guys who didn't perform, statistically, last year. They'd be selling low on those guys in a way and there's no reason to do that. Josh Naylor, Austin Allen types are who I could see them moving.

Jim Bob Cooter

2:17

Arquimedes Gamboa is a guy whose production has never seemed to match his tools, but he's also always been young for his league. Have you gotten eyes on him at the AFL and if so how has he looked?

Eric A Longenhagen

2:17

I'm not really on him.

Trent

2:18

MLB.com recently dropped Will Smith from their top 100, largely because of his struggles in a brief AAA stint this year. Are you still bullish on his future? (For reference, he's 29 on the Board right now)

Eric A Longenhagen

2:18

The average big league catcher in 2018: .230/.304/.372

2:19

Yeah, I'm still on Smith. And Keibert has been a joy to watch hit for the last three weeks.

Robert

2:19

Anything you can tell us about Shawn Knowles from the Angels system? Thank you!

Eric A Longenhagen

2:20

De'shawn Knowles? He's good. Small but physical, plus-plus run, has sneaky pop for his size. Like him.

AJ Pollock

2:20

Considering my injury history, is it all that unwise to accept the $17.9MM qualifying offer (if I get it)? There’s risk obviously if I get hurt again, but how much money woikd

Eric A Longenhagen

2:20

There's an argument for that and I think it's a good fit for ARI if they wanna make one more run at this thing.

David

2:21

Hi Eric, What do you think of the next crop of hitters that were on the Kingsport Mets this year? Are you bullish? How would you rank them by highest ceiling between Kelenic, Mauricio, Santana, Vientos and Newton?

Eric A Longenhagen

2:21

I'd have Mauricio at the front of the list, Santana at the back.

Jerry

2:21

Heard anything on Kyle Zimmer lately? If he (miraculously) stays healthy, what's the outlook on him?

Eric A Longenhagen

2:22

Only what Kyle has been tweeting.

Robert

2:22

Can you explain what are a couple things you look for when giving a power grade for a prospect other than his body? Thank you.