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Eric A Longenhagen
2:51
That's a great question. Craig is writing something right now about this kind of thing. I bet someone would do $200 over 8-10 years.
Pad Squad
2:51
Follow-up: Which guys will be 4 WAR on the Padres besides Tatis, Jr?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:55
Gore, Paddack and Patino could be, Ornelas or Arias could be. Any of Baez, Morejon or Baez could be. Something weird will happen, like Tucupita Marcano developing an 8 bat or Esteury Ruiz becoming Alfonso Soriano or something, and another guy will get there. They have a lot of talent. None of them is likely to be that, individually, but this is where depth is your friend. Not all of the Royals 2011 farm system became stars, but enough of them did and they won the things.
Jonathan
2:55
I've been fiddling with machine learning as a means of classifying prospect value based on scouting reports.  One thing I found that surprised me was that prospect (or more generally player) value could be effectively described using a distribution instead of a flat value.  Are teams looking into describing players with curves instead of point values?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:55
Some, and so, eventually, will we.
Cito's Mustache
2:55
What do you think of the Jays' 10th round pick Cal Stevenson? Handled rookie ball with ease. Fast rising sleeper in a strong system?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:57
Saw him a lot at U of A. Plus speed, has contact skills, but was probably just beating up on low-level competition during the summer. There's a chance his hand injury clouded his true skill during the spring and that he's actually good, so you're right to keep an eye on him.
Joser
2:57
How much noise is there prior to J2 signings? Everyone seems to have been caught off guard by how good Wander Franco is, and how bad Kevin Maitan turned out to be. Is it about all the stuff that happens to a teenager's body between 14-16, or are scouts purposefully over-inflating certain guys and keeping their favorites quiet?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:58
You're right about the physical volatility of adolescence. That's a huge part of why some of the high profile teens don't work out. There's not a lot of misdirection from scouts on these players because most of them have deals that aren't changing by the time we're writing about them, so no need to hide opinions.
Nick
2:59
Trey Supak doesn’t appear on the Brewers prospect list. I assume that means you aren’t buying him as a MLB SP?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:59
Supak is okay, could see him as an up/down guy I guess.
Colby
3:00
Are the tigers missing an impact bat in their farm system or does Paredes cover that. Should it be a priority or just keep piling arms and deal from strength?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:00
I think you have the right guy as far as hitting is concerned. I think one of Alcantara/Castro will turn into a really good, well-rounded player and that Wenceel has a shot to develop into a special player.
Nate
3:01
Does Cionel Perez have a future in the rotation? Or would he need to be traded, considering Houston's bevy of arms?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:01
Rotation piece for me.
Cards Fan
3:01
As a Cards fan I am really excited about Elehuris Montero.  What are your thoughts on him?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:02
Big power, plus arm, moves okay at third base but lots of orgs have him projected at 1B. Some also think his pitch selection is not great. Those orgs don't like him. If you think he stays at 3B, you really like him.
Robby
3:02
Who are some prospects you feel underrated are about to blowup?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:05
The guys off the top of my head are all Fall Leaguers. Ryan McKenna is real. Tyler Nevin rakes. The Bahamian SS's have been great.
Mike
3:05
former prospect question. Jeff Hoffman, what's his current outlook?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:05
(starts hyperventilating)
Harry
3:05
Is there any path to success for Dom Smith that doesn't involve a trade?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:06
Maybe, but I think the trade scenario is more likely than him sticking around and panning out.
JerkFace
3:06
Who was your favorite prospect who had not developed properly due to odd decisions by the team?.
Eric A Longenhagen
3:06
Again, the topical name is a Fall Leaguer. I'm not on board with Monte Harrison's swing right now.
Exile in St. Louis
3:07
You named Abraham Toro as a riser in the AFL. What is he showing that impresses scouts? How does he project? Is the defense ahead of the bat? Does he look like he can stick at 3rd? Would you stick a 40 FV on him? Astros fans have long nabbed him as a sleeper. Thanks.
Eric A Longenhagen
He does a little bit of everything. 70 arm, 50 run, 50 pop, he plays really hard.
Henry
3:08
What have you seen out of Jordan Sheffield in relief in the AFL?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:08
94-95, plus change in the upper-80s
abe froman
3:08
what do you think of malcom nunez (cardinals, 3b)? was he just beating up on inferior competition?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:08
Cardinals list drops first (wink, wink)
Dylan B
3:08
Who do you think is gonna be the highest ranked prospect to be traded this offseason?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:09
Hmmm....
Austin Riley? That seems reasonable.
Mac
3:10
Thoughts on Bryce Bush? Looks like a pretty good 32nd  round pick.
Eric A Longenhagen
3:11
Yes, there's power. 1B-ony for me. Very high-risk but the kind of flier I like in rnd 32. He's already a good 32nd rounder if we're having real discussions about him like this.
Kyle
3:11
Does Peter Lambert have No. 3 starter upside, or is he more of a safe 4/5 guy?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:11
For me, the latter.
Lyle
3:11
How would you compare Brandon Marsh and Khalil Lee's upsides?
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