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Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
Hey, sorry you guys had to wait. Wrapped a call about the international stuff just now, let' get to it...
12:09
Only big thing to point to is that we put spin rate for most of the 2019 draft picks on The Board: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...
CJ
12:09
Michael Baumann has been really good in Double A, including a no hitter last night. What is his ceiling?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
He's working really heavily with his fastball and a harder cutter (new pitch this year) while other pitches take a back seat. There may be a repertoire depth issue that makes it hard for him to be a traditional starter, but he looks like a good big league arm of some kind now. He's broken out, certainly, I just wouldn't expect him to be a star rotation piece.
CJ
12:11
Any DSL guys that you are excited about that may not be well known?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
There's relatively no lag on when we know about someone and stick them on The Board, so almost everyone we have info on is on there. I have two more Blue Jays DSL names I need to ask around on (Montero and D'Ozoria). I guess Alvin Guzman is one we have stuffed really good
Jacob
12:13
Gotten a chance to see Jon Bowlan lately?  Is there a big jump in stuff that's led to the numbers he's putting up?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
So, his stuff popped late in college, right before the draft. Then it was down post draft. It's back up again. 91-95, touching 97.
Josh Nelson
12:16
Hey Eric. Ben Badler wrote about MLB's pursuit of having a 20-round International Draft, maybe as soon as 2020. How do you think this would impact players, and is this a better direction for the league from their current signing format?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
So, the early details/reactions we have on this are largely frlmo the scouting community and they are very negative. The structure of the draft (hard slotting, tradeable picks to name two) can be screwed with quite a bit by motivated teams and there's distaste for how soon it might be implmented given that some dealsare already done (which is admittedly kind of funny). So yeah, it was an eventful int'l director meeting in Miami
ZZ Bottom
12:22
Give me a couple of under-the-radar guys you like in the AZL
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
I put the Rangers guys on The Board. Heriberto Hernandez, Ovalles, Florentino. Keyber looks better Jorge Juan, big righty from Oakland, was 90-94 last time I saw him after he was 88-92 during extended. He's a rare physical presence, he's young, the arm is getting better. He's interesting. Fabian Pertuz with the Cubs has a swing suited for catching fastballs up in th zone. His 2018 statline was not an accurate representation of his tools but he's kinda sleepery
fangraphs reader
12:26
Do you think any of Enoli Paredes, Brandon Bailey, or Cristian Javier could factor into the Astros bullpen down the stretch, since they'll all be Rule 5 eligible this offseason?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
I do. I don't know which of those three the org prefers and so I don't know which of them is most likely to get the first big league look should they need someone, but your logic is sound and those guys all have big stuff.
John
12:28
On the Nats' system: Can you share a few "likes" and "dislikes" that might surprise us?  Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
I think Sterling Sharp has done enough to expect him to be a backend piece, and a rare sort of one. Sinker/command guy. There's a lot of bullpen depth. Bourque, Mills, Pena, Guillibeau. Dislike? Just the system's depth in general
Pete
12:33
Julio Rodriguez seems to be handling his aggressive low-A assignment with aplomb. Any chance he moves into the 55 FV range by the end of the season?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
yes
fangraphs reader
12:33
Do you buy that Marisnick didn't intend to hit Lucroy?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
I buy he didn't intend to injure him and that he made a bad, split-second decision
Kendall Rogers
12:35
Any update on FG hosting college stats?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
Unfortunately, no. It's still a thing that I anticipate will happen eventually, though.
fangraphs reader
12:36
How likely is it that the Astros had the Dodgers sign Yordan Alvarez to get around international restrictions so they could trade for him 6 weeks later?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
there are people in baseball who believe this is what happened, but peole say all kinds of stuff about Houston and not all of it is true. Also, if this is what happened, I'm fine with it. As long as the player knew he'd eventually be an Astro and wasn't being lied to when signing with LAD
Mariners Fan
12:39
The Mariners haven't had an exciting catching prospect in a very long time. Do you think Cal Raliegh is that prospect and with his recent promotion to AA do you think we could see him in Seattle late next year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
I would disagree and say Alex Jackson and Mike Zunino were exciting prospects. I think we're appropriately high on Raleigh as a 40+, and he'll probably be a 45 FV in the offseason if he keeps afloat at Double-A. I don't see why Seattle would be motivated to push him quickly next year unless the big league team is unexpectedly competitive.
Mayb next September?
Brian
12:41
What are the odds that Marco Luciano follows a similar minor league path to Wander Franco and becomes a consensus top overall prospect? Could he have as high a ceiling?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
For most prospects this is not even a possiiblity because they're not talented enough, but that's not the case with Luciano. Unless he has some kind of huge red flag like strikeouts, or something else that reveals itself over a bigger sample, he has the kind of talent to be the top overall prospect.
Walewander
12:42
Why has Mitch Keller been moved down? The major league starts have been rough, but the results at AAA have been very good.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
Fastball command is still below where it was for most of his early career. Two seasons of walk rates like this now. It's not like we buried him.
Clodd
12:44
What's the best way to glean information on DSL/AZL numbers? How do you typically draw conclusions on guys who are otherwise hard to see play?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
I don't put much stock into DSL/AZL/GCL performance. Seeing Extended, AZL and Instrux helps me get the looks I need at those types.
Neal H
12:45
Who says no:  Felipe Vazquez for Gavin Lux, Will Smith and Josiah Gray?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
LAD
Slothrop
12:46
Say you're a high school player with MLB dreams who's been told by an oracle that you will have 3 mediocre HS seasons and one all-time great season. You can choose to have that one good season any time between fresh-senior year. Which year would be the best to choose
Eric A Longenhagen
12:47
Junior year. You play well enough to make summer showcases and crush those, too. If you crush as a senior it may be too late for teams to be comfortable taking and paying you.
Beeno
12:47
At what point does performance start to matter for a guy like Joey Cantillo?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
It's already mattered in that it got us asking questions about him, which led to us learning why he's having success: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-find-some-clayton-kershaws-to-scale/
12:49
But he's also still throwing like 87-91, so we can't get too nuts about it until that kind of velo is beating upper level hitters
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