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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
Good morning from brisk Tempe and Happy New Year, everyone. Hope you had a nice holiday. The 2020 scouting schedule begins in a few weeks here in AZ, so I'm very excited. Let's talk about some stuff...
I don't know
12:35
Help a debate. Is Yoshi Tsutsugo a prospect?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
He's a *rookie* and you could argue we should slot him on the Rays list somewhere because of that. He's going to be tough to FV since FV is mapped to one's WAR during the years of team control, which for most everyone we evaluate means six-ish years. If we do that for Yoshi, that certainly encompasses his decline phase, unless perhaps we just do the length of his contract. We haven't totally settled on it yet but there are problems with dropping him on a list.
Dusty
12:38
New year, new opportunity to hear your thoughts on Wander Javier and his upside?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
Upside is still the same (there's power, body projection, INF athletic profile, etc.) but the likelihood he gets there feels lower since now we've seen a bunch of at-bats and there's a clear swing and miss problem right now.
Lava
12:41
Who is more likely to become a true ace: Daniel Lynch or Tarik Skubal? What are the odds we see them matching up in the big leagues this season?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
Skubal's heater has big ride/carry and Lynch's does not, so even though Lynch throws a bit harder Skubal has the swing-and-miss fastball, so I'd say Skubak.
12:45
But, of course, the chances either of them is one are tiny.
Jon
12:45
Defense aside, who has the best career (wRC+) as a hitter between Luis Robert and Jo Adell?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
Adell. The LouBob chase/whiff stuff is a real concern for some teams.
Sean
12:46
Does Gavin Lux have enough bat to stick as full time regular in either RF or LF?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
Yes, comfortably.
brad
12:46
which prospect do you like more Jordyn Adams or Alex Faedo?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
Adams
12:47
Had an above average hitting line in the Midwest League in his first full year of baseball. Pretty incredible.
E.Q
12:48
Where did Josh Stephen come from this year? Rough year at Lakewood in 2018, skips a level, then has a career year. Is he a potential lefty platoon bat this season for the Phils?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
Nah, I think a lot of that is Reading. I don't think Stephen has the power to profile, even in a platoon role.
TDK
12:51
How big of a hire is Oz Ocampo for Ben Cherington and the Pirates?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
Yeah, kinda of an atypical shift in role for that guy during his tenure with Houston, going from running international to the big league team's translator. He's got the central casting, Type A, Ivy league background but otherwise has some rare types of work experience for an A GM.
Ozzie
12:55
What’s your take on the Robert extension?
Now We Dance
12:55
Mandatory Luis Robert mention
MarlesChartel
12:55
If you're the White Sox GM, would you offer Robert's extension?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:56
Lots of interest in the Robert stuff in some form or fashion. I talked to Craig about it, so my thoughts are included in his piece on the site.
12:59
We obviously like Robert as a prospect quite a lot despite the whiff risk stuff I mentioned earlier, All I have to add is that this is what the top of the international market looks like when teams are allowed and incentivized to spend. Robert's got $76 million guaranteed before he plays an MLB game. Ohtani got $2.3 million under the new rules.
Blue Jays Fan
1:00
How has Adam Kloffenstein progressed since last year? Had a great season in the NWL
Eric A Longenhagen
1:01
Early TOR notes we have indicate no.
Heyyyy
1:01
thoughts on Johan Oviedo? Is he making progress to becoming a mid rotation starter?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:03
He's somewhat polarizing. Scouts like him more than in-office types. Protypical build, arm strength, but the command track record and the way the heater has played have analysts rounding down. He's in that 40+/45 FV fringe for us right now as we iron out the Cardinals list for next week.
Ryan
1:04
Biggest 2020 contributor to MIN MLB roster: Kirilloff, Graterol, Duran, or Larnach?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:04
I'll say Brusdar in a relief role
Aaron bracho
1:05
I have a very interesting batted ball profile. What’s my ceiling beginning to look like?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:05
Like a Willie Calhoun sort of prospect, a relatively positionless prospect who can really hit.
Xavier
1:06
Saw the Rockies are looking for a RHH athletic CF as a centerpiece for Arenado. Is Bubba Thompson good enough to fit that profile?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:06
Nah, I'm out on the hit tool there
LudeBurger
1:06
You have the dubious honor of being the first FG chat of 2020, of the decade! Congrats!
Eric A Longenhagen
1:07
(balloons cascade down onto messy desk)
Ryan
1:07
How does the offensive profile for Dylan Carlson compare to what we saw (MiLB) and can expect (MLB) from Austin Meadows?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:11
I guess it's relatively similar, but Meadows is a better defender. Carlson's avg exit velos are lower than we expected and I have him in LF only, so he's currently on the 50 FV/55 FV line as we pass around the Cardinals list and early drafts of the hundred. Obviously, Carlson is a switch-hitter, so that's rare and awesome, and he's performing above his age level. If you think the power still projects because he's 20, he's arguably a top 25 prospect in baseball. If you think the cement is dry on the body, he's like 40-55
1:12
that's way different than Meadows as a prospect, but I get what you're saying
Keith
1:12
What are your expectations for Andrew Vaughn this year? Assignment, performance, etc. What would he need to do to exceed them?
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