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Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
Hey, chat. Good morning from Tempe, where it'll be a sunny 72 today and we're a week away from relevant local baseball. Prospect Week is in two Mondays. Let's chat.
Frank
12:05
You on board with Dylan Carlson as top 10 overall prospect? What is his 2020 outllok/Rookie of Year upside?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
Nah. We 55'd him on the Cardinals list (still very strong, typically somewheere in the 20-50 overall range) which is short of that. I think he ends up in left field and that the cement is dry on the power, or at least close to it. Still a very good player.
Rob
12:07
Any hope for angels' fans holding out for one more pitching move?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
I think that the Will Wilson deal is an indication they're up against what ownership is willing to do. But I also like Suarez, Canning and Barria and think it'll be fine.
The West is Wild
12:09
Hey Eric, quick question. When a player is listed with 50-60 tools across the board but gets given an overall grade of 40 or 45, what informs that final number? I'd suppose it's something physical or something to do with projection. Take Orioles prospect Brandon Bailey for example. 50-60 grades, 40 future value. What jives?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
Bailey's FV is limited by his role. I think he's a reliever who's good enough not to be optioned constantly. Right now, bi,g league relievers whose option years are going to be used to keep the bullpen fresh are 35+ FVs, a tier above that (where I have Bailey) are 40 FVs and anything better than that is high leverage or lots of innings, etc.
12:13
So it's cool he has all those pitches, but he's definitely just a reliever and I think Reliever X who has only two pitches but one of them is a 70 has a better chance of being that 40+ or above type of reliever.
Sinjin
12:13
Does the potential comp pick for a team trading for Betts factor at all into the trade proposals or is it so far in the future to have no real value.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
Comp picks have value. I'd point you to Craig's work here:https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/
12:15
Ben addressed it in the Rays/Cards Libby deal here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rays-and-cardinals-go-back-to-the-well/
This upcoming draft is strong, teams have desired comps picks more in trades this year than is typical.
ke'bryan mays hayes
12:16
There were reports that Cole Tucker is working out with Cody Bellinger & focusing on getting more loft on his swing this offseason - do you think that poses a risk to his hit tool?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
The thing that made Tucker so interesting as a prospect is that he was a great defender with the frame/athleticism combo that might suddenly have big power. So, I'm excited he's trying new stuff. I think it's worth the risk.
Thank you for the chat!
12:19
Do you promote Bohm early in the season? Trade him for pitching/impact player?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
Coming out of Fall League, most of the industry seemed to think this guy is a 1B. I was a little more generous, I think he can play a 40/45 3B. Yandy Diaz stared playoff games at 3B.
So there's maybe redundancy with Hoskins that makes him more likely to be traded
12:23
But also, teams that think he's a 1B are gonna like him less, and what if those teams are the teams trading pitching?
Vic
12:23
The Reds SS by the name of Jose Israel Garcia.....Am I derelict to have only heard about him beginning about a month ago?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
Uh, kinda sorta. He was a top 100 guy for us coming out of Cuba, then had a horrible first full season, rebounded in 2019. College-aged, elite frame, plus athlete, plus glove at SS, 55 raw, probably a 4 bat. Top 100 prospect for me.
Joe
12:25
Just how high is Vidal Brujan's upside?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
I'm still all in, I think he's an All Star. Top of the scale athlete, he's short but he's strong. Have him at 2B because of the arm but I think he's plus there and does damage.
Luis Urias' Mother
12:28
Any examples of hamate bone surgery affecting the development of a young infielder drastically?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
Short term (several months), yes. Players with hand/wrist fractures and surgeries therefrom have described and experienced lapses in power production after returning. I guess that Mark Mathias trade may prove relevant?
Larry
12:30
Who are examples of top prospects with exit velocities as poor as Nick Madrigal?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
let's see...
12:32
I have Madrigal's avg exit velo as 84.4mph. Big league hitters around that mark include...
12:34
12:35
It's elite contact ability and GG-caliber defense at 2B. I think that's very good.
Edd Theman
12:36
I’ve heard people say that some hitters have long or high-maintenance swings, and need to play everyday to keep them up to speed. Is there a similar belief with pitchers? Like, long vs. short arm action?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
Yes, and I tend to agree with it. Though I'll concede lots of long arm action dudes succeed and make adjustments when they have to. People were scared of Madison Bumgarner's arm action, and you could argue they were correct consider what happened to his velo, but the secondary stuff anad command were so good that it didn't matter.
Frend
12:38
new Untitled McDongenhagen Project for prospect week?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
I'll be on FG Audio that week, unsure what will become of UMP.
J
12:39
Last year the Tigers and Rockies went extremely college heavy in the draft-do you think that was an explicit strategy or just a product of the class/how their board played out?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
Board/best available early on, more strategic on day two.
Guest
12:41
Is there a way to add ETA to Majors in the Table Breakdowns that accompany each player in the Top Prospect Lists by team? For example next to FV or something
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
They're in the table atop all the lists and on The Board. Any specific reason you'd like them in the player headers?
fulltimesavage
12:43
Given the disparity in payrolls between teams like the Pirates/Rays/Marlins and the Yankees/Dodgers/Red Sox, etc. should the MLB institute a salary floor?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
MLB won't self-impose one, it'll have to be something the union wins during CBA talks. It'd be a good thing.
Mike
12:46
Daz Cameron had a bad 2019, but your report makes it sound like even his athleticism and tools backed up. Is that accurate? Or maybe he's just never made gains in some of those areas like some predicted?
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