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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Good morning, chat.
12:04
There's watchable Major League Baseball on today, which is lovely. I'll be back on the team list grind starting next week (Philly and other Tampa cluster teams are up) but for now let's chat all things baseba..
Toshi
12:04
Hi Eric,

Thank you for the chat. While ago, you mentioned during a chat that the Mariners got much better at developing pitchers. Is that because of (1) hiring new people who are good at it, (2) started embracing new philosophy or technology, (3) got better at drafting, or (4) something else? Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
1 and 2. I was in Peoria to watch George Kirby and Sam Carlson throw bullpens earlier this week and they have a rapsodo and edgertronic going in the 'pen. The dev staff changes have worked out (mostly, one very prominent example did not)
Matt
12:05
Where would oscar colas rate by fv from what you’ve heard/seen? And any rumors on who lead(s)?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
35, he'll be on the list of whoever signs him in the honorable mentions. Had a director comp him to a lot of the DH-only type 4A guys
Henry
12:06
How teachable is plate discipline?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Debatable. The statistical studies I've read (all from the pre-revolution days of dev) indicate it doesn't change much throughout a player's minor and major league career but there are some clear exceptions (Votto became incredible) and some folks with successful dev teams have told me it can be taught to some degree. I think trying to get hitters to swing at certain pitches (where they do damage in the zone) can be taught but maybe breaking ball recognition or neutral ball/strike recognition might be harder
Dave
12:09
One of the reasons that Lindor and Ramirez were able to tap into their power was by trying to hit the ball out in front of the plate.  Youve mentioned, positively, of some hitters letting the travel deep into the zone. How do these dichotomies play off of each other?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
You can let the ball travel deep and still pull it. It's about hand/bat speed that enables a later decision to swing or not, not about pull/oppo
Jeff
12:11
Mick Abel will be the best HS RHSP prospects since ______?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
Stuff was down late last year. Been high on him since he was a soph, but teenage pitching is really scary. He could come out this spring and be amazing or he could break.
Just a Guy
12:12
ZiPS seems pretty down on Shed Long.. Idk if he still counts as a prospect or post but what do you think he turns into ?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
He graduated last year. I think he's a bat-first guy you hide on defense and that he becomes a 2-ish WAR type of that ilk. 2B/3B/LF/DH, not great anywhere but hits with power.
Dongo Lewis
12:14
How does an intensified focus on player development affect scouting? My gut tells me model and data driven teams devalued scouting, but if you have a great player development staff, doesn't scouting become more important? Seems like prospects with good frames and good makeup become more valuable and those seem like classic "scouting" attributes more than spin axis and exit velos.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
I think "ways of identifying players to whom you can apply sound dev concepts" matters more and how teams think they can best do that (scouting or finer data analysis) varies
Fred
12:15
Hypothetical question. What are the odds a prospect  ranked 5-10 on a team list becomes an above average regular?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
depends on the FV. 5 to 10 on this list https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-21-prospects-washington-nationals/
is pretty low
much better
12:17
which is (another reason) why FV is more useful than just ordinal rankings
Bruno
12:17
Have you dug into to rumors of Nick Gonzales looking like a legit shortstop last week?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
Most scouts barely think he can play 2B
Duff
12:17
You're completed some big projects last couple years: The BOARD & Prospect Week. What do you have planned next? Any planned movement to work for an organization?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
I get offers from a few orgs every year but I like my job a lot, and a successful FG tenure is one where I leave the site in a way that the work continues at its current level. I've got more ideas for the site, I've got a book to promote, lots to do
James
12:21
If a team has old, unimpressive facilities in the D.R., it seems like it would be a smart investment to build nice, new ones. But would that be a smart investment in 2020? I mean, if there's an international draft in a few years, have you just kind of missed the boat on this?
(Also, is there going to be info on the international market and how that all works in your and Kiley's book?)
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
I think the answer to that becomes more clear once minor league contraction details are ironed out and enacted. If you have a limited number of domestic spots but can still have a lot of guys on the DR complex, then it's still a great investment.
12:23
yes, there is a huge Int'l section in the book
ETA maven
12:23
Hi Eric, How would you rank the following AL SP prospects by projected 2020 IP volume: Whitley, Pearson, Mize, Manning, Skubal, Schmidt?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
I guess Schmidt at the top with all NYY injury stuff in mind. Then Pearson, then throw a dart at the Tigers guys.
Mark Yost
12:25
Ethan Small is apparently working on a slider this spring, say this offering sticks and is league average. Would this be a big bump in his value to say a 45+?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
Yep. With the breaking ball he has the repertoire of a 45 but the strike-throwing and the way the fastball plays because above it's velocity makes him weird in a special way that gives him a shot to be more than that, so he gets the +.
And honestly if he finishes the year at Double-A or above and pitches well in a thick sample, he might just be a 50.
Jeff
12:26
Are you praying to Jah or Gaia or whoever for no disaster on every pitch Rocker throws for the NCAA? It's not that he isn't a badass so much as I do not trust the NCAA, even with Vandy's track record of getting top arms to the pros healthy or Walker Buehler
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
Him and Leiter both. All pitchers, really.
Dongo Lewis
12:27
Does minor league contraction make your life harder or easier? More players concentrated in complexes but less competitive atmosphere
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
TBD, probably easier.
James
12:28
Will a high school kid who is being scouted seriously (top half of the first round) have conversations with scouts? Do team scouts set up meetings to interview the kids? Do they just sort of accidentally/on-purpose bump into them?
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