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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
Good morning from Tempe
12:36
It's been a weird few days. Most of the questions in the queue are related to the impact of the global pandemic on baseball. Many of them don't have answers yet, but deserve thought and discussion. The pace of today's chat may be slower because it'll likely be about weighty stuff that requires more thought than how hard Georgia Tech's Tuesday guy throws (vary hard, btw).
Mitch
12:36
I have travel plans to go to AZ on Monday. The main reason is to go to the Cubs' backfields. I can safely assume that those are gonna be closed to the public, right?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
Here's one I don't know. I'm not sure what teams plan to do about minor league spring training games. They aren't typically what would be considered problem areas but now that there's no other baseball to watch and people are either here or coming here, they're more likely to draw bigger crowds and become risky. I think the pace at which all of this is developing means that cessation of minor league games altogether is probably coming. Players travel from all over the world to train here.
Justin
12:42
How do you think the disruption and cancellation of seasons and tournaments like the CWS will affect the draft, especially at the top?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
There are a couple of variables, and this is just my thinking and talking with folks in baseball to this point. 1. There either is or isn't any amateur baseball to watch the rest of the year. 2. They either move or don't move the date of the draft (which may depend on what happens with 1.) 3. What the NCAA does about player eligibility and scholarship numbers may impact who wants to declare.
12:51
Teams are going to scout if there's baseball to see. Already people who are upset about what has happened (which I understand, though some of these people are being less cautious than my instincts are telling me to be in this scenario) are trying to organize informal play of some kind.
PatEdMartin
12:52
If collegiate summer leagues are still allowed to go nearly as scheduled, is this going to be the most loaded pitching we've seen in summer leagues in a while?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:52
The answer to this depends on Variable 3, above.
Bill
12:53
Have you heard anything about what minor league players will be doing to work out and stay in shape during the layoff?  Are teams doing anything to help from a distance?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
The teams that have commented thus far, more relating to big leaguers, have expressed a desire to keep players here where the club can control sanitation of their environment. To me, that makes more sense than shipping everyone back on planes spread out all over the world.
12:55
And also avoids complications that may arise in people's home cities/towns/countries that may make it hard for them to come back.
Ken Giles Right Hook
12:55
Please no COVID-19 related questions. Super bummed out and sick of reading about it
Eric A Longenhagen
12:58
There are straight up prospect questions here, too. And I promise I'll mix those in and try to find a balance (places thumbs and forefingers together). But this is our reality now, my dude. It sucks, I agree. We've all gotta join hands (symbolically {winks}) and deal with this thing as a planet, and we will.
Humpback Chubs
12:58
Heard somewhere Brandon Williamson ecperienced a velo bump in pro ball. Any truth to it? Any chance it sticks during longer outings?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:01
Careful with this one. I really like Williamson and I thought, when his stuff was at its peak within his outing, that it was better than Nick Lodolo's (keep in mind I'm lukewarm on Lodoolo). But the problem was that he'd lose it in the third, fourth inning and it'd be very 40/45-ish. Yes, late last summer and in bullpens this year he's throwing harder (91-94 last summer and in the pen now) but those aren't stamina-testing endeavors the way a full start is. I'm gonna stuff him pretty good on the Mariners list (he'll be a 40+) because I think the stuff really plays, but I'm not convinced he's a traditional starter yet
Guest
1:01
Did you get to watch NMSU-TAMU?  Thoughts on the Gonzales-Lacy matchup?  Seems like Lacy shoved.  Is he nearing 50 FV territory or is the lack of third pitch + potential reliever risk too concerning?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:04
He has three pitches, it's just the delivery is violent and kinda scary. From a pure stuff perspective, Lacy is better than Hancock. Gonzalez went 0-for-6 with three walks on Fri/Sat versus Lacy and Roa, btw. Tough look.
DJ
1:04
In your estimation is the R/R 1B stigma warranted? Are you aware of any defensive studies that show lefty throwers are somehow superior to righties around the bag? Off the cuff, seems like the throw to 2nd (primarily) would be the first reason to say a lefty would have an advantage, but while we expect to see more L/L 1B it often feels like a reason to downgrade a R/R 1B (i.e. Vaughn, Hoskins). Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
1:07
It's an offensive thing, not a defensive one. Lefty throwers can only play 1B or the OF, so all lefty throwers get funneled to those positions and the best hitters among them (plus the righties who can't play the rest of the infield for whatever reason) end up setting an unusually high offensive bar. If you're a righty 1B, you're not only trying to be one of the best 30-45 hitters among that group, but you're doing it while at a platoon disadvantage most of the time because the pitching population is mostly righty.
1:09
So it's just an uphill battle for those guys, you have to be really good. Rhys Hoskins was so hot early on but, over two and a half years, he's basically been a 50, 55 if you prorate 2017, to this point.
Jerome
1:09
How has Nick Allen's hit tool progressed? Obviously he is a major league defender right now, will he be a good enough hitter in 2021 to sniff the bigs?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:11
I think so. He's gotten strong enough to make viable contact but not such good contact that he's going to have an impact bat. His exit velos are a 40 on the scale, he makes a lot of contact. Chance to be a perfectly fine everyday SS because of the glove and what he's become with the stick, but he's probably not a star.
Desperate Times
1:12
Are there any examples of guys with low EV profiles like Dylan Carlson succeeding in the show?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:12
Sure, you just have to take a peek at the leaderboard, there are plenty. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast
Rob
1:12
I'm curious as to your take on what a post-hype guy and former top prospect like Nomar Mazara is at this point in his career. At one level I concede this is a pure fantasy question. At another level, though, I'm wondering if all development isn't linear at what point (ever?) do we say with confidence that this is who that dude is. It feels like a strong point of tension between statistical significance and ongoing player dev. Thinking the deep thoughts since we have no games to obsess over.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:13
I touched on this when I wrote up the deal. I did think he was trending up in a way that seemed most relevant to the Sox. He might just be a platoon corner guy but based on the makeup of their roster, that's a good fit. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/white-sox-acquire-good-fit-in-mazara-range...
Humpback Chubs
1:16
Ethan Small wasn't a pick to click of yours, but would it be reasonable to categorize him as such?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:17
Yes, if you start reading about him developing a better breaking ball then he's arguably a 100 type.
Humpback Chubs
1:17
The Dunning Kruger effect is strong in prospect evaluation, isn't it?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:17
damn, that's cold
1:18
Maybe I just have a natural ability (winks self to death)
Josh
1:18
If you were the Nationals general manager (congrats on your WS), would you rather give the #5 spot in rotation to Joe Ross or Austin Voth? Voth has emerged as the "analyst's choice," while team seems to prefer Ross.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:20
I was not a Voth guy when he was still prospect eligible but I think they made a tweak to his heater. He was a natural cut guy who was probably bettered by a release change (supination/pronation) to create backspin on his fastball.
Here's the 2018 fastball vertical movement. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/austin-voth/15047/game-log?position=...
I think Voth might be real now, and Ross' health track record makes me wanna bullpen him anyway.
Sir Nerdlington
1:21
Will you now be scouting esports prospects? This is the year it takes over, isn't it?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:22
I could see myself getting back into Magic after a 6-moth hiatus.
Narvain
1:23
Are you still gonna be releasing team prospect lists?
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