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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
hey hey hey, everyone... give me like 30 seconds
12:03
okay, chat
12:04
let's do it
CL
12:04
What is the contingency plan for MiLB? Say MLB plays in spring training complexes, would MiLB play on the back fields?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
I haven't read nightengale's piece yet. I think we might see teams have a minor league roster and a half, maybe a roster or two, playing backfield games. You'd ideally have a way to keep reserves sharp in case of injury and I'd bet every team has prospects who aren't part of that consideration who they'd still like to get reps.
12:07
But I don't know for sure, that's speculation. We're probably a while away from that being decided and I'd guess it's more likely we see some kind of widespread minor league play in the fall
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins
12:08
In your opinion, who among the Padres teenaged July2 prospects is most likely to make a Patino like leap? Or do you think none of them have that talent?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
Am I limited to the pitchers? Yeah probably none, though Patino was like 86-90 at one point and just kept throwing harder and harder as he got stronger. I guess it's possible another one of these 5-foot-10 pitchability types in their teens is suddenly throwing in the mid-90s sometime in 2021 but you could throw a dart at their names and have as good a chance at guessing which one as I do.
12:12
Jesus Gonzalez is the guy who has already had a velo bump. He's pretty swole. Efrain Contreras and Luarbert Arias are maxed out, Guarate probably has the best chance to grow into real velo of the group.
12:13
hitter-wise, it's gotta be the infielders with power potential: Santana and Preciado
Jack
12:13
What level (MLB, AAA, AA, etc) would you say the KBO is equivalent to?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
Closest to Double-A from a tools/talent POV, imo.
Mike
12:15
Is there a single non-backend starting pitching prospect in the Giants system, apart from Seth Corry and maybe Hjelle? Most lopsided system to one side of the game in baseball?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
They have a few monster bullpen arms lurking, too. Most systems are full of guys with no 4/5 start ceilings...
TP
12:18
How does the development of a new pitch impact a prospect’s future value? Like, what if a two pitch pitcher develops a third pitch during the off-season? Are there any top prospects whose FV would jump dramatically if they were able to develop a new pitch? Is the potential to learn new pitches incorporated into FV, or is it something that you adjust FV after the fact (i.e. seeing is believing)?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
That info travels at speeds unique to the individual player and writer. I may be at a field watching a guy work with a new pitch, hear the kids who are charting talk about, and see it as it's happening. Or I may not hear about it until I get on the phone with someone in the offseason to talk about an org, top to bottom. I do project on pitch grades. I won't go so far as to say something like "Hey, this guy's changeup is terrible and I think he'll end up with two different breaking balls instead, so he has a 20/55 slider grade on The Board." but I'll assume a change like that is more possibel than before
Mason
12:22
Hardest gun reading you’ve ever seen that looked correct ?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
Ray Black 103
Jared
12:22
Do you think that northern prep players that didn't play much (if at all) this spring have any shot at improving their draft stock if scouts are unable to get additional in person looks?  An example: a video of Mick Abel surfaced on Twitter this week and he looks more physical and the Rapsodo video shows him touching 99.5.  Does that even matter at this point?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
MLB has enabled prospects to upload video to teams via an online portal. I guess it's helpful if you have ways of verifying what you're seeing is real.
Greg
12:24
You credited the Braves last week for their creative haul in the draft. Where do you think it ranked?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
It was a creative approach but that's not a value judgement. I'm not high on their early-round picks, save for maybe...
Larry
12:25
Does Braden Shewmake have every day SS potential? What are the weaknesses?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
I do think Kiley and I were low on Shewmake, pre-draft. He's a bunch of 50s and 55s who can play short, has feel for contact and a huge frame.
nb
12:27
Hey Eric - Hope you're surviving this mess okay.  I love your work and this site (yes, I upgraded from the $20 sub to $50).  I was just wondering about the upcoming schedule for prospect rankings.  This is my favorite analysis and the long Pads column made my Thursday almost seem normal for a few hours.  Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
You'll have a Rangers list and draft update next week, then the next group of org list include CLE, CIN, CWS, LAD, the order of which may vary.
RT
12:29
Over/under 3.5 HS prep arms drafted in 1st round?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
under
12:30
I'd set o/u at 2.5, btw. Abel, Bitsko, and half of Kelley
Jeff
12:30
Will this draft be extremely college heavy thanks to more reliable data to work with and, more importantly, to further strengthen the NCAA internship to MLB pipeline?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
I don't think a group of people sit in a room and say "Let's include the scouting staffs in this conspiracy to outsource dev to NCAA. Tell them to draft more college guys."
12:32
I spoke with someone who thinks teams will do the opposite and draft more HS players
12:33
But the talent in the draft is still college-heavy, and I think wanting to acquire the best talent vetoes a lot of other, lesser motivations.
MSW
12:34
So let's say it's well in to the summer before games can reasonably start, and there's no real way to play more than 50 or so this season. Would MLB consider doing a WBC-style tournament instead of the actual season? Maybe break up the US by region or even state to get more teams in the mix?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
I'm sure a pool play scenario has been raised. They're almost certainly exhausting and scrutinizing every conceivable idea at this point, everyone wants there to be games if they can create a situation where it's safe to have them.
Scotty
12:37
I'm sure you've answered this before somehwere, but how do you determine a pitcher's command ceiling? If they don't have command now, how can you predict they will find it?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
Athleticism is still my most influential variable there
Jeff
12:38
Why do right handed pitchers throw much harder than left handed pitchers?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
righty population is significantly larger than lefty pop, so there are more of them who throw harder.
Cole
12:40
Hudson Head seems like he's ripe for a pick to click type. Are you expecting, or leary of a year of "treading water" as he acclimates further to the most difficult pitching he'll have seen in his life? Thanks as always.
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