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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:01
Howdy, everyone. I've gotta record Effectively Wild a little later so once again I'm holding tight to the hour (book release week and all that), so let's get right to it.
Greg
12:01
What's your plan with J2 rankings? Any plan to delay it since the signing deadline could be pushed back?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
It's low on the priority list right now. I imagine the top of the class which is currently already on The Board will change very little, if at all, with an update. Update will be more about adding names.
J
12:04
Daniel Cabrera seems to be dropping pretty rapidly on a lot of boards. Is it because the underlying batted ball data on him isn’t great, and the threshold to provide offensive value in an OF corner is so high?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
I'd guess the latter but I's add that this class is just very good and he may have been passed while his profile remains the same. I think that question is better suited for someone who has moved him down, though. I like him the same as ever.
J
12:05
How do you evaluate someone like Landon Knack who has a very atypical dev path (only been a full time pitcher for two years, questionable frame), but seems to have made an adjustment to his posture (leaned back) that has led to an uptick in velo and results as a senior? Anecdotally he seems like a guy who could have weirdo upside, but the profile might not scream it initially.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Right so for those who don't know, Knack pitches at Eastern Tennessee State and has 50 strikeouts and 1 walk in 25 innings this year before the shutdown. And you're right about the posture thing, his stride is a little more open now, his arm slot more vertical, velo is in the mid-90s. But he is a senior. He might be the top priority senior in the country this year, but even Jake Mangum signed for $20k last year so I'm not sure what teams will be willing to offer Knack. I'm not sure what kind of TrackMan sample is available on this guy since he's at a smaller school, but he has 40+ FV stuff and results.
J
12:10
I saw some numbers that indicated that Warming Bernabel and Michael James had good exit velos. Are they legit prospects for Colorado or just more polished than their DSL peers?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
let me check what I've got on those two guys....
12:11
Neither was on my Rockies org list (and I flag guys for exit velo)...
12:12
Bernabel I've got averaging 80 off the bat, which is a 20 on the scale
James I have averaging 83, which is a 35.
So, while I certainly have prospects on The Board who only hit it that hard at this time, their exit velos are not good and so I wonder where what you read comes form.
The Islets of Ryan Langerhans
12:13
In a recent article, Law and Eno broke down the 5 tools, and when discussing hit tool, they felt a need to incorporate quality of contact beyond hit/no hit, both from a scouting and analytics perspective. In this way, the hit and power tools seem to overlap. My related theoretical question: does a legit .350 hitter who only hits singles have an 80 grade hit tool?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
There are thousands of words on this in the book. I agree power impacts how the hit tool plays, just look at Jose Iglesias. Selectivity impacts it, too. Same way contact ability and approach impact game power. There's no real way of isolating that stuff if you're only using results to measure them. In the book we take a reductionist approach.
Jason N
12:14
Do you have a book recommendation for a 10 year old?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
Hmmmmm. Let me caution you by saying I'm not a parent and believe I'm ill-suited to be one, so I recommend all of the Larry Flynt biographies.
No, let me think of something actually useful...
12:17
Holes, I remember liking that one
12:18
(totally unrelated to Flynt, I swear, it's fine to google)
J
12:18
You alluded yesterday to some concern over Texas’ pitching development, but given the inconsistent progress of Taveras, Thompson, and Tejeda what do you make of their PD system as a whole? Does Blood only lasting 1 year indicate trouble at the top levels of the org as to best developmental practices?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
I don't know that they've had trouble developing pitchers as much as they've had trouble keeping them healthy. The Blood stuff and Driveline flirtation that crumbled in an ugly way, I agree, indicates a lack of stability. I don't think pointing at those three OFs constitutes evidence, though. Those guys just strike me as high-variance sorts anyway, guys whose K issues (bubba and tejeda's) were likely to make things messy at some point.
Jabroni
12:20
Do you think teams will get a look at players via showcase or personal workouts before the draft?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
players have a portal to which they can post video for all 30 teams to see. I bet that's it.
bk
12:21
Hey Eric! When's the next draft update?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Early next week, next thing I do after Rangers list as promised.
Bob
12:21
I was intrigued by your comment on Gabrial Arias in the SD list. You said SD had thrown many kinds of development strategies at him and it seemed to be working. Could you expand on those strategies and what working looked like? Thanks.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
The most interesting thing I was told they did was use virtual reality to get him seeing a ton of pitches during the offseason.
Father Padre
12:23
Can you explain what an 80 FV really means? The expected value of a top 5 player seems illogical for anyone in the minors.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
It's not something I anticipate doing a lot, but I also think there's a gap between Franco and what our 70 FV guys did in the minors from a performance standpoint (vlad, etc.) that needed to be reflected, and *some* of these guys are going to be truly elite big leaguers, and I think this is one.
Frank Menechino
12:25
If there is a shortened season, could the A’s benefit by not needing to worry about “preserving” Puk and Luzardo for the playoffs over a full 162 games?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
Yes. Montas' workload less of an issue, too.
Matt
12:26
How likely is it that Josh Jung is able to get to his power? With his current swing how many HR does he project for annually?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
If he hit more than 20 annual homers with his current swing I'd be surprised. Could be as simple as changing his angle of attack like what the Sox did with Robert, who also had a tendency to inside out balls before they did it.
Juliana
12:27
Can you expand on the Yerry Rodriguez ranking from your Rangers farm system piece? It’s very different from what I’ve read on him elsewhere earlier this year (he wasn’t discussed much compared to Solak, Tavares, etc) and I’m curious what the difference is. Did you see him a lot this Spring?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
I guess, I think the report in the piece is pretty thorough. Mid-90s with plus spin, has had advanced command in my looks, fastball has bat-missing tail to arm side and his delivery's funk is off-putting for hitters without impacting his ability to locate. Changeup is already good. Curveball has pleasing movement and some present utility (backdoor for strikes) but is slower than most truly effective curveballs. I'm making an abstract projection based on his ability to spin the ball (2700rpm on the curveball, which is plus) that either that curve gets changed to something with more power or he adds a fourth effective pitch like a cutter. The mid-summer shutdown scares me, but at ahe 21, with that stuff, he's not all that different from a lot of college arms we're talking about at or near the top of the draft who are typically 50 FV players.
Cody
12:31
Which pitchers in the draft outside of Lacy/Hancock have the highest ceiling in this draft?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
Crochet's stuff gives him that kind of ceiling (the delivery and 2020 injury are scary tho) and Bitsko, Abel and Winn probably have the biggest ceiling on the prep side.
Hey Eric
12:32
I have a giant excel sheet of prospects that I typically sort by FV. How would you recommend I adjust FV for people who haven't had it updated in a few years (eg Logan Warmoth is a 45 FV still)
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
Warmoth is totally off my list, he's an org guy at this point. The Board is what you're looking for, I think.
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