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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
Good morning, everyone. I've gotta fix a data entry issue on The Board very quickly and I'll be right with you.
12:33
OKay, thanks for bearing with me. Rangers and White Sox bonus amounts should be populated on The Board shortly.
12:35
Hope everyone's as well as can be. Let's escape into some baseball discussion for a while...
white sox logjam
12:35
between Abreu/Vaughn and Collins/Mercedes/Adolfo it seems the white sox have a big time pileup at 1B/DH spots. Which of the latter three do you think other teams would be most interested in for a trade?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
If you think one of Yermin or Collins either can or will soon be able to catch than you probably prefer that one. I think that's Collins. But if you think neither or both then you want the one you feel has the best chance to hit, and I think you can make arguments for either of them at that point.
hurtado
12:38
Mask of the Phantasm only a 50? Are you high?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
Rewatch it. Parts of it didn't hold up for me. A lot of the Animated Series episodes don't (some do, and they're righteous)
Mordecai and Rigby
12:39
So I've been following your 2020 draft list and one pitching prospect I like isn't on there anymore? What happened to RHP Jackson Fristoe and where would he be listed on THE BOARD now? Do you have notes on him? Thanks
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
Yeah, I lopped a bunch of guys off the bottom. At one point had like 3x more players on there than a 5 round draft would require. Fristoe was one. He's on the 35/35+FV line. good frame at 6-foot-34 200, maybe a little less projectable than most of the others prep kids. 92-93 with an average breaking ball in my looks.
he's listed 6-4*
Ian
12:42
Which 2019 J2 guys were making a name for themselves this spring?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
Other than some of the clubs who had the young guys in very early for a sort of instructs, that level of player had barely even arrived for lots of clubs. Robert Puason was definitely in the weight room all winter.
Aaron
12:45
Do you think Max Meyer will drop on draft day like most undersized pitchers that throw hard? If not, what makes him different?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:47
I think if anything makes him drop it'll just be that he's part of a fat tier of really good college pitching. It wouldn't surprise me if he fell because a bunch of teams in a row felt better with someone who has a longer track record of starting and holding their stuff over the course of a season while handling starter's innings, or maybe someone who they feel has a more advanced pitch mix, but I don't think his size and velo are negatives.
Neal
12:48
Hi Eric. I’m drawn toward prospects like Taylor Trammell, who are competitive and work really hard to improve and adjust. Who are some prospects (outside of the top 25-30) you’d bet on maximizing their potential based on their work ethic and baseball aptitude? Stay safe!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
How ya feel, Neal? Okay, off the top of my head here are a bunch of guys with purportedly great makeup:Luis Patino, Bobby Witt, Vidal Brujan, Dylan Carlson, Madrigal...
12:51
Sean Murphy, Trammell, X Edwards, Geraldo Perdomo, Randy Arozarena, Nick Solak...
12:52
That's it for the 50 FV guys
Kier
12:52
Question about two teens in the OAK system, Marcus Smith and Jordan Diaz. Do you think either has enough helium for an FV40+ grade when the A's list comes out?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
I'm not that heavy on Smith, though I do like him and he'll be a 40. Diaz is on the line.Same is probably true for Diaz, though based on how advanced his feel for contact is, he's the one of the two who there might be a statistical case to be made that he's a 40+, I just don't know if that's true yet.
Like, if he has an elite in-zone contact rate or something like that, I'll be more inclined to + him.
Austin
12:54
Hi Eric, thanks for the chat. I get you're a bit low on Reid Detmers (if 15th on your board and a 45FV could mean to be low). Chances for him to become a #2 starter?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:55
#2? Pretty slim, as long as we're defining #2 in the same way.
Red
12:57
Did the mid/late 2010s run environment/ball change affect prospect evaluation for you? By the way, am I crazy for thinking that with all the high octane in today's bullpens, the 2015/2016 run environment would be producing a better product for MLB rn..
Eric A Longenhagen
1:00
I've adjusted some things. The way I'm evaluating fastballs is different now, both with where the velo scale is (guys started throwing harder during that window) and how I look at fastballs overall....
1:01
What happens with the baseball manufacturing process and the way more common use of four outfielders impacts flyball hitter performance are two short term issues that have kept me from formally altering how I think about grading power output, but again it's something I've wondered we might need to do
1:02
I remember that one year we had a ton of no-no's and everyone was worried we were entering a  low-scoring era, ya know?
Pete
1:02
If you were drafting based on hitting ability alone, would Patrick Bailey even be in 1st round consideration? Seems as if all his value is tied to his glove.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:03
I guess? If this is a clever way of backdooring a fantasy question into this chat, let me just say Patrick Bailey probably won't be a great fantasy prospect. But he's a polished switch-hitter who can catch and I think that guy goes round one.
Balex
1:04
You (like the Nationals) had Jackson Rutledge ranked above guys like Priester, Thompson, Kirby, and Walston pre-draft. What's prevented you from bumping him to the same FV45+ tier as those guys, is it more a medical thing or have you become less optimistic about his control maturing? Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
1:06
I had new info on all the guys I moved up (Walston I saw in AZL and thought the changeup and carry on the fastball were undersold before the draft, Thompson I got TM data, Kirby was throwing 94-97 in the bullpen this spring) but nothing new and illuminating like that on Rutledge
Mordecai and Rigby
1:07
Do you think Coby Mayo has any shot at staying at 3B? I like the raw power and the swing looks solid to me. The deep crouch and setup is kinda weird, but it works for him. I'm wondering if he ends up in LF/RF or if has a legit shot at sticking at 3B with some work?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:07
Corner OF for me, don't think he was athletic enough to play 3B, agree he has huge juice
Aaron
1:07
Why is Carmen Mlodzinski considered a 1st rounder. Missed a year with the broken ankle/foot. No real swing and miss pitch. Not much track record either.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:09
Deep repertoire, rare slider velo for a college arm, SC pitching track record in pro ball is good.. I'm skeptical of him relative to the other college pitchers but I see why people like him
Bob (Miami)
1:09
Not sure in what world these two players really need to be compared, but I'm curious who you'd pref between Jerar Encarnacion and Andy Pages. My read so far is that the overall FV says Encarnacion, but the tools say Pages.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:11
I had some support for Pages on the back of the top 100. Dodgers list is up next and yes, he'll either be in that 45 (like Jerar) or 45+ tier. I think Encarnacion's big league timeline is much shorter of those two, but yes Pages is toolsier.
Marvin
1:11
I'm not sure I quite understand how to interpret Picks to Click. Just to choose an example, Josh Jung (FV45+) has to be a better bet to crack the FV50 barrier next year than, say, Ryder Green (FV40), no? I'm sort of imagining Picks to Click means something like "a better shot to become a Top 100 player than you'd expect from their FV alone." Does that sound close?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:12
Think of Picks to Click as gut feel guys I think will break out.
Jeff
1:12
I've been acting like there is a large gap between Mick Abel and Jared Kelly. The gap should be between those two and all the other HS arms?
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