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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
1:14
I have Abel cleanly over Kelley because his frame is better, I think his breaking ball has more ceiling than Kelley's. Abel's change probably won't ever be as good as JK's but it has a better chance of coming close than Jk's breaker does at approaching Abel's
Jamie
1:14
Does a short season help the rookie SPs? Thoughts on Puk, McKay, Pearson impact this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:16
Yeah, it probably means less concern over workload for all of those guys. And the volatility of a shorter, weird season means teams like Toronto have incentive take the training wheels off Pearson and see if they can sneak in a postseason run of some kind.
Tyler
1:16
What sort of prospects do you think are helped (in relative terms) and hurt by the minor league season being canceled? My instinct is maybe that older guys who are closer to the bigs and have already had more professional training kinda have a leg up here, while an 18-year-old sitting at home without access to gyms or coaching is losing more valuable dev time?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:18
Yup, that makes sense to me. The players who are 2021 ETA's on The Board I think are also hurt. Most of them are Rule 5 eligible this winter and needed to prove they deserved a 40-man spot this summer but now won't have that opportunity. Even if you assume teams need to have a minor league team staying sharp on backfields somewhere (I do) that means 14 players on the 40-man plus 10-15 prospects, and that's just not very many.
will smith
1:19
Publications that "forecast" a team's lineup four years into the future: why do they do this? I can't imagine any of them have ever been remotely correct. They exist in a world without trades, free agency, or the vagaries of player development.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:21
Meh. i think it's just a fun thing to do and that doing something like that attracts casual baseball fans to your stuff. I agree it's not really a useful exercise from an analysis standpoint for the reasons you suggest.
Jefferson
1:21
How does Benjamin Bailey's upside compare with some of the 2019 J2 class? I hear so much hype about Maximo Acosta, bayron Lora, etc, but almost nothing about Bailey
Eric A Longenhagen
1:23
I have him a tier behind all those guys. Let me see if I can get Dolinar to make the Search function on the Board enable you to type "2019 J2" and get all the guys. You can kind of sort it to do that now but not as cleanly as I'd like.
Nitpicker!
1:24
In the TEX write-up you referred to Anderson Tejeda (FV45+) being in the same "tier" as Bryson Stott (FV45+) and Greg Jones (FV45). Do the 45s and 45+s constitute a tier, or are you suggesting something more about Greg Jones?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:24
I should have said they're similar player types. Shortstops (maybe) with power but issues with contact for various reasons.
1:26
LAD, CLE, CIN (then the East Valley cluster and I'm done)
Carlos
1:26
Next list(s) in order will be....
Sandy
1:27
Hi Eric, will LHP Matt Turner or cINF J. Noel make the Indians list?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:29
Noel will, Turner will not. His performance made it so I did some work on him but he's 87-90 without impact movement. Just not enough stuff to be on there yet.
Sandy
1:30
When you're writing the Indians list, give Adam Scott a mention
Eric A Longenhagen
1:31
another guy who has performed. 90-94 as a starter, he's 24 but was only drafted in 2018 so has 40-man flexibility even though he's at the upper levels. Can you shoehorn him as a reliever somehow? Yeah kinda interesting.
Ford
1:33
Do you think the draft process (both MLB and other sports) will change after all of this? Move to less in-person workouts or something. Idk about baseball, but NBA at least has a ton of in-person workouts that seem to bias teams towards "workout warriors" that don't seem to work out much
Eric A Longenhagen
1:37
If problems with the virus persist then I do think we'll have to change how some things are done in the short term (almost certainly next year, maybe 2022) with less reliance on travel for all parties involved (scouts to games on planes, players to tournaments on planes) but some people are hellbent on making money, too. Did you see Drew Rosenhaus on planes and in multiple players' living rooms during the draft? There's a travel ball circuit CEO on Twitter who's kind of a virus truther and wants to get going again soon...
it's gonna be a weird time even once we get back to work
Bob
1:38
Have you specifically discussed with your FO sources the challenges of developing young players in the minors this year? If so, what kind of things are being discussed.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:42
We've talked about what scenarios we think are likely (I mentioned the taxi squad likelihood earlier) as things get underway and later in the fall. Decisions about what will happen this year are being discussed and made at pay grades way, way above the people I just casually talk to on the phone, though. Some orgs have players on their complex right now because those kids never left, they either couldn't or didn't want to.
Guest
1:42
For those who haven't seen Yermin Mercedes, what should we visualize to get a sense of his punk rock swing?
Eric A Longenhagen
Raul
1:45
What have you heard about Pedro Pineda? I was surprised to see that he was “only” ranked as the 12th best J2 prospect by MLB.com.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:45
I have him 8th. Big-framed corner OF with power projection, had had a positive PED test. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-international/summa...
BJ
1:46
What makes Angel Macuare more of a Pick to Click than Jojanse Torres?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:46
Better chance to start.
Nick
1:46
Hi Eric, do you prefer Ed Howard or Carlos Colmenarez?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:47
Howard slightly, higher degree of confidence in the bat-to-ball track record
1:48
Okay everyone, thanks for coming. Another great chat this week. I'm putting together a new thing for Monday so be on the lookout for that. Until then, hope everyone stays well.
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