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Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Howdy, letting the coffee drip a few moments more and I'll be right with you...
12:05
Okay
thanks for stopping by, let's do the thing
Mike
12:05
Is draft intel starting to flow or is it still pretty sparse given all the question marks leading up to the draft?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
It's starting and you'll get a mock when we're back from Memorial Day, though it's a lot of potential strategy stuff now and less about players tied to teams. It's clear teams just don't have some guys on their board competitively because they didn't see them this spring, which I don't like.
Pete
12:07
If Carlos Colmenarez and Cristian Hernandez we’re available for the draft where would they likely go? Would this demographic be considered as risky as HS Pitching?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
I think they'd go late first at the earliest, probably comfortably in the second round.
Other Eric
12:08
who are the top senior signs? do you expect a large amount of them to be picked in this draft?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Landon Knack? I think the seniors will be 20k targets, less likely to be selected.
Murdoc
12:09
What PV are you giving The Last Dance?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
55
12:10
the timeline shifting undercut narrative elements
OJ Made in America is an 80, btw
Connor
12:11
Eric, which systems have the most prospects not currently in the top 100 that seem poised to make the top 100 before graduation? It seems like the Rangers, Indians, and Dodgers would be up there.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
yup, i'd also point to AZ and still SD
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins
12:12
Jorge Guzman is more than likely a reliever- what % would you give him on being a impact reliever?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
30% impact, 30% middle, 20% up/down, 20% total bust?
Reds Fan
12:13
Reading over your write-up, Reds system seem like one that is getting especially hurt by a lack of playing this year. Lots of guys with something to prove/development to be had. Is that fair to say or are am I letting my bias get in the way ?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
No I agree with you and had the same thought last night. All the older HS'ers they've drafted age another year without proving they can hit age-appropriate pitching, the Bautista/Zabala fallen stars types can't bounce back, the entire pitching contingent goes unexposed to the new dev group.
Ryan
12:15
If the draft included J2 players, how many J2 players would typically go in the 1st round? Would they likely be considered the riskiest demographic due to their age?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
The best J2 players are in typically in the 45-50 FV range so that means top 5 for the very very best of them, more mid to late rd one for the top of the class in a usual year.
Appa Yip Yip
12:16
If Babe Ruth were drafted this year as a kid out of high school, would he make the majors? He'd obviously have the talent, but making it past even double a takes so much dedication, discipline, focus, and work - things Ruth was infamously bad at - what are the chances he'd flame out in double a once things got hard because he didn't want to do the work?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
I understand why we're asking questions like this and they are interesting. I'm glad you're dropping him in as a high schooler, which I think would give him a much better chance than if you transported him at age 27 or whatever.
Reid
12:18
Book is great, thanks for all the hard work. You mentioned how you missed on some guys before you "understood" how fastballs worked, like Cotton and Sanchez. Anyone come to mind in the upcoming draft/a prospect of note who you're lower on now based on that knowledge? Detmers seems like someone who could benefit from a fastball tweak.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
I won't go nuts with Justin Lange because it was a little lower slot when I saw him last summer, Carmen Mlodzinski's heater cuts so I'm lower on him, a little lower on Kyle Harrison (who I like but probably as a long reliever, he's an awful lot like Packy Naughton) because he's a sinker sort who needs the changeup to do damage.
12:21
It has raised new questions, thinking about fastballs like this. Charez Butcher's spin axis is such a mess, don't I have to project on it pretty significantly? So do I like guys who throw like this more now?...
Amir
12:22
How do you compare Nick Loftin to when Kevin Newman was drafted in 15?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
Hmmmm, I had Newman's bat in really strong. Probably over-projected his game power some and think Loftin willl clearly have more, but I had like a 7 on Newman's bat and I'd probably still take that guy.
Guest
12:23
What are some places where the BOARD’s Farm Rankings (crudely by $$$) differ from your own personal Farm Rankings for teams?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
I tend to like the deeper systems. I'd take ARI or CLE over CHW, for instance
Ryan
12:24
Is the draft board finalized since there are no games being played?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
nope, still sourcing data and video and there's just gonna be some info lag no matter what.
Fuzzy
12:25
Do you think the scouting industry as we know it is going to be one of the things that doesn't survive these present circumstances? Even if some teams pay through the year, I imagine they'll be looking to cut expenses like that in the short term to make up for "losses" they have this year. Trying to be optimistic, but I don't see it..
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
Yeah, wrote a whole book about what might happen with scouting and now it all might be accelerated.
Chris
12:26
Are you hearing any lacy at 1 talk?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
Just that he deserves to be in the mix and would be a reasonable pick, nothing concrete tying him to DET
Dave
12:26
Strategically, what rounds do you see HS getting taken? I'm going to guess 3rd or 5th? 3rd because you've got the pick coming back next year if you don't sign them and 5th because you can just start making calls with whatever money you've got and go until a guy says yes....
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
I'd guess it'll be the second round. Teams will have had all night to make calls and feel good about signability.
Guest
12:28
How do you foresee the 20k targets working out? If teams can’t pay their employees won’t it be weird to see them gobbling up new players
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