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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Good morning from scorching hot tempe, where it'll be 107 today. Boiling everywhere, it seems.
12:05
I assume most of the chat is aware of this week's mock, but if you're not might wanna familiarize yourself with it quickly since I expect it'll be a focal point of our discussion today.
Let's begin
Jefferson
12:05
Whats the story on Nick Gonzales defensive skills? So many reports completely skip over that. Is it not a concern? Is he definitely going to stay in the middle of the infield?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
I think he stays on the middle infield but that there's a chance he's not a good one. He'll make some spectacular plays, boot some easy ones and we didn't get a full spring to stamp the position. It's another reason the Kesotn Hiura comps fit from a profile perspective. You're drafting him for the bat, it's a bonus if he sticks.
RS
12:08
Pretty much every mock has the Giants either taking or linking Tyler Soderstrom, is that the buzz you’re hearing?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
Soderstrom gets mentioned anywhere from 9 through the mid-20s, and yes the Giants are thought to be one of the clubs whose mix he's in. Prep catching is risky and I think those types tend to fall, so I think he gets picked toward the back of that range. SFG seems to be more open to risk (shorter performance track record, high schoolers, players who barely/didn't play this spring) based on early chatter.
Earnest
12:12
Odds we see our first straight to the show draftee since Mikey Leake this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
Yeah, I think we will. College pitching is the most likely demo to do it, and there's an awful lot of it this year, plus (hopefully) a more variable season format that means more teams have a chance to make the playoffs and therefore are motivated to start service clock, plus the college arms didn't throw very much during the spring...
lots of stuff pushing it that way
Carlos
12:15
With no ges being played, are pro scouts in any way involved in draft evaluations of players, weighing in on decisions?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
Yeah, the pro scouts I've spoken to over the last several months have been up to a couple different things. Some of them have been doing stuff related to pro scouting, like putting together a top-to-bottom pref list of an org they're unfamiliar with by using data and video, or looking for sleepers. Others have been tasked with making draft evaluations based on video.
Love in the Time of COVID
12:17
Yay or nay this draft strategy for the Cubs: Burl Carraway/Andrew Abbott at 16, Nick Griffin/Ricky Tiedemann with the next pick?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
Meh, I think you could probably do a better prep arm at 16 and get a comparable college reliever at 51.
Guest
12:18
What are the odds that someone other than Tork, Martin and Lacy slides into the top 3 picks?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
30-ish% chance of rain? It seems like Baltimore has at least kicked the tires on an underslot deal at 2. That's the most likely way it happens.
Winston
12:22
If they bang the season would televising a 30 team instructional league be the next best option? As much as I enjoy the KBO it hasn't been healthy for my sleep schedule (or bank account) and I really just wanna see some big league talent
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
I think people would feel really weird about watching innings get rolled. You can't concede the developmental focus of instructs. It'd be cool to do an eval/dev-focused broadcast, but you can't make it about who wins and who doesn't.
Jim
12:24
Wowza, Polcovich ain't a sleeper no more. You think he goes in the 3rd?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
Yeah, just between the pro lists and draft stuff, some of these guys are gonna move late. I think he's in the 3rd/4th, bat speed, runs pretty well, could be 2B/OF type on D.
Trent Hauser
12:26
Jared Kelley joins a pretty prestigous list with that Gatorade thing. Can the Cubs have at 16?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
I'd be surprised if he were gone by 16.
Roger
12:27
What general shape could you see Giants pursuing with extra picks/pool allotment? Where might they try to carve out extra slot value and what players could they target to spend the extra on?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
They could execute something like last year, where they lean college early, cut a little bit (Bishop and Wyatt were under slot last year, combined created about 1mil in space), then took a couple $600-800k high schoolers
John
12:30
Indians prospect Carlos Vargas seems like a fitting comp for Slade Cecconi, right?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
From a body and arm action standpoint, yeah I see what you're getting at.
Roger
12:31
Bitsko seems to be jumping all over the place, from 1st to 2nd rd consideration and back again. Why so volatile? Whereabout do you think he ends up going?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
There are teams who just aren't comfortable taking him because they haven't had enough looks, so he may have pockets where he just will not go based on that, and some where he may tumble due to signability. If he doesn't go in the teens, they hey may slide past the back of the first round and into the comp where a team with the pool space created by those extra picks can get a deal done.
Michael
12:33
Let’s say you had access to amateur Trackman data from the 2020 season...what would you be researching mainly? Who’s metrics are you curious about?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
If someone sends me the entire class in a couple speadsheets, I'll show you.
Jabroni
12:35
How concerned are teams regarding Garrett Mitchell’s medical condition?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
Depends. Lots of athletes have played with diabetes and I'm not sure it's the reason Adam Morrison didn't work out, or that it's a reasons Jay Cutler wasn't better, ya know? Yes, it's something else he has to manage, but being hyper-disciplined is already an integral part of being a pro athlete, so...
Almir Lima Jr.
12:39
Olá! Greetings from São Paulo, Brazil! I want to ask about the Mets approach to this year's draft. Last year's they showed a willingness to take risks in premium HS talent in the first few rounds. Do you think they may use a similar strategy to grab a Crow-Armstrong or Bitsko-type and take a few seniors in the late rounds? Rumors flying they are looking for college RHPs with their #1 pick. Thanks (and keep up the good work!)
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
Hey man, thanks, stay safe down there. I think what they did last year was probably not something planned and rather something that was decided as Allan fell, and I think lots of teams are going to be competing for seniors earlier than normal this year and you're less likely to get the ones you really like.
Cas
12:41
Maybe a dumb question...is there a chance that somehow not having spring baseball will be helpful
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
I think you maybe want to phrase it as "will there be a prospect-related silver lining to this horrible mess?" The direct-to-majors possibility and long term draft interest it might generate was the first thing that came to mind.
Jabroni
12:44
Do you think it was Rob Manfred’s goal to destroy baseball?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
No, I think it's ridiculous when people say stuff like that, as if someone has been working toward, for decades, an elaborate scheme to topple (insert industry or country or system, etc.) from the inside. I think Manfred's goal is to make the owners money and that their collective fixation on that might strike an irreparable blow, but I don't think that's the explicit goal.
Gustavo
12:46
Pretty good Indians list, Eric. Did you get any hits on lefty reliever Kellen Rholl? I've heard there's some loud stuff in his arm
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
Yeah, he's one of the funky relief guys I alluded to in the summary. He sits about 88 and it looks like this:
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