JotCast | Eric Longenhagen Chat

Eric Longenhagen Chat

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Eric A Longenhagen

12:29

Some probably know, others may be true PTBNL in that they aren't PTBNL's in order to circumvent 2020 roster rules (ie. traded players need to be in the pool) but they're actually on a list of several guys who teams hope to see in the fall. Yes, it's weird.

Childish Giambino

12:30

Why is Yusniel Padron-Artilles not one of the Red Sox top 36 prospects? From what little I can find on him, he holds the record for most consecutive Ks in NA baseball history with 12 (!!) set last year. Seems like you have to some talent to do that, even if it was in short-season ball

Eric A Longenhagen

12:30

I sleeper I like. Fastball deception guy in the honorable mention section of the list article: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-33-prospects-boston-red-sox/

Brian

12:30

Will only watching big leaguers for a year make you more conservative with ranking prospects next year (i.e. after having only seen finished products you may be inclined to downgrade those that are a long way off).

Eric A Longenhagen

12:31

No, I'm not sure if it'll have an impact across the whole population that I can separate from there not being minor league games all year. I do think it's instructive, though.

Agent Dale Cooper

12:32

I know this year has been a mess but have you scouted/seen/heard of a kid named Mason Albright? HS kid from Maryland?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:33

Mhmm, he's okay. Upper-80s lefty without a ton of projection, good breaking ball feel for a HS kid from the mid-Atlantic region, longer arm action. Probably a 35+ FV for me.

12:35

Hmmm, so many other contenders have a lot of free agents coming off the books which will take 40-man pressure away. Maybe Philly? Again, buncha free agents.

rule 5

12:35

looks like the padres consolidated as you expected. any teams surprise you with moves (or lack thereof) to resolved their rule 5 issues?

Davis

12:35

What FV would you have put on Austin Nola at the end of last year vs now?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:36

That's a tough one. How you you weight the years of control he has left with his age? I think he's an everyday catcher, a 50, but will he be something like that for all 6 years when several of those years are in his mid-30s? Tough call.

Chaise

12:36

Pedro Martinez + one more PTBNL for Jose Martinez? Is this another example of "don't trade with the Rays"? Jose was optioned to South Bend after no hits in a small sample with the Cubbies.

Eric A Longenhagen

12:37

Nah, part of the reason Martinez is a little extra valuable is that he's optionable. But yeah, the Rays are good at this.

catchers

12:37

the royals have 6 catchers on their practice squad! madness

Eric A Longenhagen

12:37

yeah, I think some of that is a byprodict of them having like none after their campsite covid outbreak

Turk

12:37

Who has the higher ceiling among the Angels' fringe 1B guys, Matt Thaiss or Jared Walsh? Do you buy Walsh as a late-round Napoli-esque surprise for the club? Game power seems fairly legit, if he can get to the ball a bit more.

Eric A Longenhagen

12:38

Walsh is swinging the hell out of it right now and I do wonder if he has a chance to be a sneaky low-end regular like Christian Walker. I'm interested in their continued moving around of Thaiss but think that multi-positional thumper role is probably his ceiling.

RAH

12:39

What are your expectations for Yadiel Hernandez? Do you think he could get lots of PT in LF the rest of the season, with Soto DHing?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:40

I don't have expectations as much as guy like Nola and Yaz have opened my eyes to the possibility that someone this age might come up and be real. Hernandez was mentioned enough to me (and Kiley, I think) when we did the Nats org list that I think he's worth monitoring.

Rob

12:40

How long do teams usually wait to announce a "PTBNL"?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:41

it can vary based on a number of factors but it has to be before the fall roster deadlines, and probably well before that.

Not John

12:41

Hey, Eric! One thing I've never quite understood about FG's prospect valuation series is that an FV45 pitcher, for instance, is worth the same in WAR as an FV40+ batter. (Same for an FV45+ pitcher as compared to an FV45 batter.) My instinct from your rankings, though, is that everyone in the FV45 tier is worth more than everyone in the FV40+ tier. That's kind of what it means to have a tier, no? Just curious about your thoughts, thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen

12:42

Yeah it's odd, but when Craig did the research that is what the results were. It's either coming from variability in the middle of that pitching population or just the ranking industry being bad at making correct calls on pitching.

Dave

12:42

Why do colleges consistently deploy their best three starting pitchers on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in that order? For match ups? To get ahead in the series? Tradition and status? Gentleman’s agreement? Something else?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:42

that's often when big conference schools are facing other big conference schools. Tuesdays are for your freshman to gain experience vs South Tennessee Tech.

12:43

But you know, now that you mention it, West Coast schools often have tougher midweek games against the various Cal State schools, UNLV, Grand Canyon...maybe they should have a better midweek starter.

RAH

12:43

Does Reggie Preciado really show power potential with his swing, or is it all frame based? #Not a Scout, his swing looks more contact oriented to me.

Eric A Longenhagen

12:43

Largely framed based projection at this point.

Agent Dale Cooper

12:44

Any major concerns with Brendan Rodgers? He seems to be stuck between frequent injuries and no solid opportunity. He's still a potential star right?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:46

I'm not concerned but I am not comfortable with his eval for the reasons you mentioned. Couple shoulder injuries, barely played before graduating. Definitely less confident in where he's at than other top 50 prospects. Did nothing but hit for like 8 years as an amateur and minor leaguer then suddenly nothing. He's already in 'limbo' where he's no list-eligible but also not an established big leaguer, and that's the scary Profar zone.

Mike

12:46

Any word on a potential Arizona Fall League, and what it will look like if it happens? Expanded rosters? Maybe more top prospects than normal?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:47

I've been told a Fall League is unlikely. Instructs will happen with lots of team-by-team flexibility as to how they're done, but MLB seems unlikely to pay to have an AFL since it's not going to generate revenue.

Agent Dale Cooper

12:47

How reasonable is it for ONiel Cruz to stay at SS? And would his secondary position be 3B, or OF? Can he hit enough to make it not matter?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:48

If he slips off SS (it's likely that he does, but it's remarkable someone his size even has a small chance to stay) then I think PIT tries CF, then RF, then 1B if each subsequent position fails.

Lars

12:48

What would we need to see from Sixto Sanchez the rest of the season to bump him into the FV60 tier before he graduates?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:49

I'd have to think his command is so precise that he can live, at will, in that top/armside corner of the zone with his fastball. That's where I think he can absolutely blow people away with that heater. Otherwise I think it's going to miss fewer bats than you'd guess given its velo, like Dusty May.

Andres

12:50

Are you worried about Spencer Howard’s ability to successfully go two or three times through a lineup?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:51

Not yet, still pretty green because of his small school/relief background.

12:51

Tejay Antone... Future as a starter? How much has his stock risen this year?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:51

Definitely has the pitch mix to start, yes. Might be a 40+ rather than just one of the top 40s in the system.

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