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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:01
Good morning from Tempe. I had several pieces go up over the last 24 hours and I trust folks know how to find those, so I won't bore you with links (so long as you don't bore me with questions about stuff I've already written about) and instead will get right to the chat
Peter
12:02
What are your thoughts on the Lowe/Heriberto trade? Is Lowe a little like Solak, ready to shine but just fell victim to Rays 40-man? Or is there another reason they "gave up" on him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
great start
BlueJayMatt
12:02
What position do you think Jays prospect Austin Martin will play  in the majors?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
I think that's very much up in the air. He could fall as far down the defensive spectrum as LF. He was not running well, nor throwing well from third base early in the season but if that is because of an injury that has since healed then maybe the left side of the infield is a fit, still.
Andrew
12:04
Do you see Rockies going HS position player route? Mayer or Lawler would pair nicely with Veen, Romo in building back the farm
Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
far too early to know
12:06
I was late on the changeup development AND on how to valu e his profile, which I've written multiple times and corrected. As far as the process, check out Future Value that pulls the curtain back as best I can
Marc
12:06
On June 2, 2020, you said that Devin William’s changeup is a 40/40 and that his slider/curveball are ahead of his changeup. How is that possible? How do you compile and verify your scouting grades?
purplemini
12:07
Does Heriberto Hernandez's value change with the move to Tampa? Seems like TB has a better player development system but much more crowded roster.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
nope, he'll be in basically the same place I had him last offseason
Joe
12:07
Any word on which teams are adding a second complex team to supplement the loss of their short season league teams?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
Many teams still don't have clear 2021 ops budgets, which I think will impact whether that's done this year or in future years.
12:08
But I anticipate it will be many teams. Many already have two GCL or AZL clubs.
Piotr
12:08
Hi Eric. I just picked up Future Value and it is terrific so far, so thanks for making this cold stove a little less boring. I don't believe he has a FanGraphs player page yet, so I wanted to ask where you thought Tomoyuki Sugano would fit in an MLB rotation? Do you think his stuff will translate well? Thanks.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
I've got notes on Sugano over on the Int'l players tab on The Board https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/international-players/su...
in short, I think his command is great and will be enough for him to stick in a rotation
12:09
but let's remember that Shun Yamaguchi led NPB in K's two seasons ago and was really bad in MLB this year, his stuff is just not good enough.
Hegelbon
12:09
I take it you’re off Braylon Bishop somewhat after your latest Top 50 update. Is it because of lack of data or because something changed in his profile that you didn’t like?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
No data, I just think the swing has remained disconcertingly noisy and others (whose bats I'm now more confident in) have passed him. He still has really special bat speed
Chris
12:11
Why isn't oscar colas on the international board? Is he the real deal in your opinion?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
he's on there
Roger
12:11
Hi Eric, welcome back! Your little mic drop recently about adding Gregory Santos to your Top 100 suggests (pretty strongly) that you still see him as a SP candidate with the electric stuff. But the options clock and long way to go in his development certainly makes the late-inning relief option tempting and Farhan Zaidi has talked about how quickly he can move as reliever. What level of conviction do you have that he stays SP and if not is the Top 100 status still legit?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
I'd say it's 50/50 for me that he starts, but remember I stuck Brusdar, Karinchak, Brailyn Marquez and later Devin WIlliams toward the back of the 100 knowing they're relief-only types for me. Even if you told me Santos was gonna relieve, I'd still 100 him as a high-leverage piece based on how his stuff looked in the Fall.
Roger
12:13
Luis Matos seems to have simply exploded in Instructs this year. Where do you have his FV pegged now and does he leap frog over Bishop, Canario and, dare I say, maybe even Ramos?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
He definitely looked better than Bishop, about the same as Canario from a hitting standpoint (whose ranking will be impacted by the shoulder surgery, probably not his FV but definitely his ranking if that makes sense) but Matos has a better chance to stay in CF. He'll likely also make the back of the 100 but not go past Ramos
Carlos
12:14
Hi Eric, thank you for hosting the chat. First time commenter but long time reader. Big fan. Can you offer any insight on what is going on with the international talent this year? Seems like there is very little clarity on when players like Wilman Diaz, Carlos Colmenarez, and Christian Hernandez might sign. From articles I’ve read on mlb.com, it seems like January is the hope, but is there a specific date for these players?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
I anticipate they'll sign in January, yes.
Jerry S
12:15
How do teams protect players in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft? Is the list of players available made public?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
all they have to do is put them on a sufficiently high minor league roster relative to their years in pro ball. I don't think there's a public list available.
Angelus Novus
12:16
Do you buy Means as a potential 2/3 starter? Had a velo tick in 2020, lost command, then found it at the end of the year and dominated. Do you build in additional ceiling for a guy who in basically a three year span went from 87-90 then 91-93, then 93-96? As a mid 20-year old.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
i do not
Jim Leyland Palmer
12:17
Which of your top two college bats (McLain & Fabian) do you think (at this extremely early point) the Tigers FO would favor if they were to go that route?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
They tend to pop SEC guys with more confidence (totally anecdotal on my part there)
Miley Cyrus
12:17
might we see the first team prospect rankings drop? Asking for a friend.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
Monday or Tuesday
David
12:18
Been seeing Mo Hanley a D3 arm surging up draft boards and prospect lists. What is the word on him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
Really loose low-3/4s lefty with arm strength. Was told I need to be on him in the spring and put him on the list once it expands but that he's not close to the top 50.
Cade
12:19
Cleveland lost power arm Oviedo in the Rule 5 draft, but selected power arm T. Stephan. Thoughts?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
I prefer Oviedo as a prospect but Stephan is considered more big league ready right now.
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