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Scotty
12:20
If there was a pure relief prospect who you thought it is likely they would turn out to be Josh Hader level good, what FV would you give that player? 55? 60?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
Good question and it's one I'm asking myself all the time because it helps refine the process: If you know a player is going to have the career of Player X, where should he be on a prospect list, where on the FV scale? For Hader, if we prorate 2020 across his usual innings output, we're looking at a 7.5-ish WAR guy across four seasons, which is basically a 50 FV. If he were peak Hader (2.5ish WAR) for all six team control years, then he's at leat a 55, maybe a 60 if you think relievers are too punished by WAR-driven analysis.
Adam
12:24
Why is Christian Franklin not ranked on your top 50 prospects?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
I don't think the hit tool is as good as his proponents (which there are several) do
Justin
12:25
Would you say that it's unlikely that the Pirates viewed Soriano as the best player available in the Rule 5, but put a high value on the fact that he'll basically be allowed to have 40% of a normal minor league season via a long rehab stint, against appropriate competition?  When so many of the top picks are coming back from TJ, it makes me think that teams see that as a valuable trait in the Rule 5.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
I basically agree with all this, yes.
12:26
Though it wouldn't surprise me if PIT thought Soriano was the best pitching prospect available, or at least among them.
David
12:26
The Mariners seemed to be a little more open than most when it came to providing public information about the Instructional league. Anything interesting to gleam from their results?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
No, I wasn't allowed at their camp and I view anything orgs say about their own prospects as propaganda.
FatGreenPuppet
12:27
How long until Mick Abel is traded?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
I admit that this was also my first thought when they announced Dombrowski's hiring.
Wesley
12:29
Do you think the Dodgers see if Lux can play a little 2B, and a little LF, absorbing the Kike/Joc at bats, this year? Feels like he'd be a good platoon partner for Taylor/Pollack if the pressure is taken off his defence.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
Yup, totally agree. Not confident he'll be anything close to as good a 2B glove as Hernandez, but he should still play there situationally.
12:31
Kiley likes him much more than I do and our last sweeping update was from when he was still around. Also, teenagers change really fast. Let's FV only fell like half a grade, I just have others passing him.
Jon
12:31
How did Luke Leto fall from 3-46?
Rob
12:32
Saw a Twitter rumor that there’s recent concern over K. Robinson’s hit tool. I know he has a wide range of outcomes, but any truth to recent concerns?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
His at-bats were not good in the fall (i saw ARI a bunch) but he's also a teenage kid who was away from home literally all year because of COVID, so I'm not sure what to take away from a couple weeks at the very end of that time period.
Board
12:33
The "arm" rating is missing from the draft board for position players
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
No it isn't, it is on the new "physical attributes" tab so I could add stuff I thought was more relevant to the hitters' tool page
El Zilcho
12:36
Per Brittany Ghiroli’s story in the Athletic, some teams believe that through remote coaching and application of tech some teams will come out of this season with their minor leaguers way ahead of the rest of the league. Any insight into which teams will benefit? I’m guessing Dodgers, Rays, Astros...
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
Of course teams think their methods are better than the other teams' and coaches want to tout the way they do things. We need to do a better job of understanding peoples' individual incentives in the game.
Don Jenver
12:38
Brewers get Leo Crawford to complete Knebel deal. Guessing he is a pitchability lefty with something funky going on?
Will
12:38
Any thoughts on Jason Bahr? Good strikeout rates, reportedly good extension and life on the fastball but not much hype
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
Let me check what I've got on both of these obscure guys very quickly...
12:41
last I saw Crawford he was 87-92 coming out of the Tony Cingrani sort of release point. Milwaukee likes those pitchers who present an odd look, so maybe that's at play here
12:42
Bahr yes, big life on the heater even though its spin axis isn't the kind typically driving that sort of movement, have him 89-93 but missing bats with it
Perd Hapley
12:42
Do you think that these new "partner leagues" can survive long term?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
sure, they're using even cheaper labor than before in unpaid college kids rather than poorly-paid minor leaguers
Dr. Sticks
12:43
Eric, love your chats. Much has been made of the velo dip Triston McKenzie experienced in his last couple of starts. The build is clearly unique. Do you think he's got the endurance to handle 120 IP as a starter? Or would he make a better bulk guy, throwing 3-4 innings after an opener?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
it's a great question and I truly don't know.
You have to do whatever keeps his stuff crisp, imo
12:44
so i suppose that pushes him toward fewer innings, but I wonder if variable deployment is worse for stuff consistency than keeping him on a starter's schedule? it's tough
Swinging Friar
12:45
Can you offer some insight on the year Adrian Morejon had? He looked great some outings and got tagged a few other times. Rising stock? Falling? As expected?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
Same for me, 45+ FV, just outside the 100, basically the pitching version of Franchy Cordero and Estevan Florial types: hurt a bunch, command comes and goes, fastball doesn't play to its velo because it's a sinker style fastball but stuff is really good otherwise
Sushi
12:47
Thoughts on either Oneil Cruz or Luis Campusano?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:47
It means I probably push the Pirates and Padres lists (and therefore the Mariners list) back toward the end of the run so we can have more clarity on what's going on there.
drat
12:49
Are the yankees carrying more raw prospects on their roster than ever before, or are these guys less raw than they appear? I feel like in previous years teams like the Mariners or Marlins would overpay for them with younger players- is that going to happen this offseason for guys like Abreu, Contreras, Gomez, Vizcaino, Gil, etc? Is this a change in approach by the yankees?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
I agree they have a bunch of volatile arms who don't throw strikes but I'm not sure it's a change in approach or just coincidence that several of them came due for the 40-man in a short window of time.
12:51
Great question. I do think at one point there was a huge gap between a few top teams and the rest and that gap is starting to close. It's tough to know because teams contract out some of that stuff, or use consultants, or are actually putting $ into R&D and R&D is what eventually drives player dev machination...
12:52
I definitely agree that teams have shifted from spending on eval to dev based on ROI on the dev side, but as teams take a more uniform approach that gap is going to close
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