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Eric Longenhagen Is Your Dynasty League Jukebox
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12:15
What sort of overall star/ok/bust distributions an org should be happy with given the collection of prospects they have.  As a weird example, how about the Baltimore pitching collection several years ago - Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Bundy, Gausman.  Five very highly rated prosepcts, produced one elite reliever, one briefly elite starter for a different team, two ok starters, and a bust.  Was that an organizational success or failure?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
failure. Gotta think the baseline has some busts, but those outcomes were below the baseline
kevinthecomic
12:16
You have any intel on Hirokazu Sawamura, RP Red Sox?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
sits 95, all fastballs and splits...
12:19
has been up to 99, splitter is hard sits low-90s, 30-grade control, really violent delivery
Steven!
12:19
Any priority evals at spring training this year, or is that not the right environment for getting good looks? (Minimally competitive, players just getting back into game shape, etc.)
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
I'm gonna try and see how it goes. I'll just double-up teams whose lists I need to write. So Sunday I'm doing Rangers/Royals. Fingers crossed I get something out of it, run into a bunch of KC arms or something
Asinwreck
12:20
What might have led to Norge Carlos Vera's signing not being official until today?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Cuba/US relation complications and OFAC approval? Just an educated guess.
Balto
12:21
Does Kjerstad's ranking compared to other 2020 draft picks mean that, at least at the moment, you think Baltimore's gamble was a poor one?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
no, because it enabled them to get Mayo and Baumler.
froglegs_jackson
12:21
Which college baseball games will you be watching today and over the rest of this weekend?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
Clemson/SC, the entire Round Rock Classic, Vandy's double header Sunday (likely to be Rocker/Leiter starts)
12:24
North Carolina to see Thompson and Roberts (two more guys who habe very little track record, out the gate hot)
Fetch
12:24
Do you think your team sources overlap with the sources at other publications, or are you each talking to different guys? Trying to better understand what drives the differences in the various sites' evaluations, and whether you're 'competing' for information. Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
Often the org puts forth the same person (a farm director or dev person) that they want to talk to us but I try to have at least four sources on every list (this year that's an internal source or two, a pitch data call to talk about the alt site guys with someone outside the org {typically someone from a team who has traded with the org recently}, and boots-on-the-ground scouts who saw instructs, plus whatever I saw myself or can get off video)
Steve
12:26
If you had to forecast how well Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin would do in full time short-inning-relief, which would you prefer? Both pretty clearly belong on the roster and you probably don’t want two premium arms being kept stretched out as bullpen longmen, right?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
Gonsolin's going to miss more bats in that role.
David
12:27
Hi Eric, after watching that video of Justice Thompson, is he a potential fifth round guy?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
I saw one swing, he's played in five games.
Alex
12:27
Is the 50 FV grade on Jasson Dominguez to hedge the risk/reward profile? Or do you feel that a 50 FV is the most reasonable outcome?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
It's a risk/reward balance. Who do you take, Jazz or Dominguez? Their risk/reward is roughly similar, Jazz could be in the big league tomorrow. On the flip side, we know more about Jazz because of how long he's played relative to Dominguez, so do you project positively on the areas we don't yet understand regarding Dominguez?
lgm
12:29
does MLB coaching staff ever influence FV value? I'm thinking of Searage who used to be with the pirates and how he was talked about almost as a miracle worker with pitchers
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
nope
Gest
12:29
What kind of velocity does Kevin Abel pitch at?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
87-89 t91 last weekend
that's where he was pre-injury, too
Owen
12:29
How much volatility should we assume we will see in the top 100 this year? Like, a month into the season, are we already adjusting tonnes of players up and down by full FV grades as we get the kind of data that just wasn't available last year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
I do think a bunch of pitchers will come out with either much better or much worse stuff and will move. Hitters will take longer to notice something is better or worse since (especially with a delayed minor league season and no travel for KG or I) it takes longer for them to show statistical indicators of change.
Jeff
12:31
Any thoughts on the Pirates' Tucker now that he's off lists? A big switch hitting SS who is more or less big league ready seems like he'll find work for years regardless
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
agreed, still think he has a chance to pop late because of the profile (huge switch hitter)
Skillsets
12:32
When you look at a player, how do you predict whether they have a skillset that will age well (say ages 30+) or not?  Is it a skill type, or a player type (hard working etc)?  Or is it all too hard to tell when they’re prospects?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
Nope. I think the whole "we're projecting to their prime when they're 29-30" is dumb. No teams looks at a free agent and says "what were they like as an 18-year-old prospect?" so why should we do the reverse? Just through pattern recognition I think I can identify guys who'll have athletic longevity but it's not all that relevant to the work. "let's draft Cameron Maybin, he'll still be a 4th OF when he's 33" shouldn't move the needle
Bruce
12:34
Any reason that Drake Fellows wasn't others of note mention on Pirates list? Fear of lack of command making more developmental? Lack of eyes? Other?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
Have seen 3 above avg pitches from him, think his control is too poor to be on the list
Ryan Tepera’s MVP Bonus
12:35
With his impending Rule 5 eligibility, should the Pirates move Tahnaj Thomas to the bullpen to accelerate his ascent or would it be better to wait and see how the starter profile develops over a full season?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
Gotta run him out there as a starter to give the secondaries the best chance to develop. He should try a split or something
Down Unda
12:35
Curtis Mead tore up the ABL for the 2nd year in a row and just turned 20.. where would he go in the draft next year if he were in the SEC? Always curious how that translates.. thanks Eric!!!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
He's super duper raw, and I don't think he's a 3B. Maybe 4th or 5th round? The SEC is better than the ABL (or at least deeper, their top ends are similar)
Trevor Rogers
12:36
You questioned his ability to develop a quality breaking ball. Say he did. Where would that put him on the list and how would that impact his FV?
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