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Eric Longenhagen Is Your Dynasty League Jukebox
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Good morning from Tempe, everyone. Probably gonna hold things tight to an hour so I can split for some minor league ST action. Also, I get vaccine dose #2 today, so I'm two weeks away from making some very rash decisions. Look forward to seeing you out there.
Philip
12:02
Target date for the Padres list?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Nationals early next week, then I start with the Northwest Valley Teams (SD, KC, TEX, SEA), which are the clubs I've been sitting on during the co-op and early minor league ST here in AZ. I'd guess the Mariners or Padres are first out of the gate since I expect there will be less movement there
Mike
12:03
Hey Eric - how concerning is Rocker's decreased velo? It's been a handful of starts now. If the velo just doesn't come back (at least not before the draft), what's his outlook?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
I'd bet he still goes somewhere in the top 10 if it doesn't rebound. Rocker in the low-90s is still better than most of the other first round college arms. Maybe he'd slide past Madden but that feels like it. It's not like Hoglund has a huge arm or anything.
Matt
12:05
When is your first scheduled mock draft?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Probably not until mid-May. Teams are still sifting through stuff, varsity ball is barely underway in some locations, teams are still trying to mine college bats.... lots still going on before a mock is anything but clickbait.
G
12:07
Is the 2022 draft combo of Elijah Green and Dylan Lesko the best HS hitter/pitcher combo in recent history?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
Here are the 2022 rankings for those interested...2022 Draft Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs
12:09
Green probably needs an FV bump into the Top 100 area. Uhhh, I think Lesko is roughly comparable to a typical top-of-the-class prep arm, Green is definitely special...yeah even Witt, royce lewis...Green feels better than those guys at the same stage.
The Real Death Valley
12:09
Keith Law mentioned Will Taylor in his recent top 50 - what do you have on him and where do you think he currently fits from a baseball perspective?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
Yep, the other Clemson dual sport commit. Incredible body, built like you'd expect a D1 wrestler to look. Had a really good East Coast Pro, swing isn't great but he gets the barrel there, tracks pitches well, runs well...just a good baseball prospect. Whether he goes that high depends on him getting paid to eschew school.
Matt
12:13
Corbin Burnes has added some velo early on this year, obviously he needs a longer track record but do you think he can be a top 10 starter?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
Hmmm, top 10 is really high. Yeah, probably towards the back of the 10. Guys like him and Snell and Glasnow, dudes who have had issues throwing strikes in the past, they can bubble up into that area at times but I don't think we're talking about a Scherzer/Kershaw/Cole level dude there.
Mike
12:15
When do you think there will start to be buzz on what teams like what players, etc? Seems like in previous years April was the time when there would start to be a little bit of buzz, but with  the draft pushed back, maybe that's different this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
I think you nailed it, and the lack of a true underclass year and Cape Cod, etc. means everyone's a little later to feel comfortable with the college crop, too.
Matt
12:15
I feel like there has been little to no news on Corbin Carroll and Kristian Robinson all spring. Any thoughts on how the Dbacks are developing guys relative to teams like the Padres or Mariners where we see their top prospects playing all the time in MLB spring training games?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
Hmmm, yeah I guess it didn't hit home with me that they'd kept Carroll and Thomas out of games as much as they did. Kristian I don't think would do well in big league games right now. I'd guess it has more to do with them trying to develop role players like Rojas, Smith, Young...guys who were fighting for playing time. I guess that doesn't preclude you from throwing a top prospect into the late innings of a game, but I'm also not sure if exciting the fan base is sufficient justification for doing so if you think they're better suited for backfield dev at age 20.
Darren
12:20
I sense the position players at the top of the draft have shifted a fair amount.  Who are your top 3 position players?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
Yeah, really need to clear this last handful of pro lists to update the amateur side of The Board. If you asked me to take a position player right now it'd be Mayer. Then Lawlar and Davis, I think? Frelick and Davis are really close for me.
Chamaco
12:22
We should be seeing guys held down for service time reasons—sorry, I mean, to get some extra reps at the alt site—being called up soon, right? Any thoughts on which top prospects might be up in the next couple of weeks?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
Wouldn't surprise me if we saw Marsh or Adell. Maybe Nolan Jones.
Jonathan
12:25
Mets prospects: Who are you most excited about? Take the biggest leap in 2021? And most under-the-radar?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
I really wanna see what Alexander Ramirez does, and the deep sleeper is Brandon McIlwain. Much more here: Top 30 Prospects: New York Mets | FanGraphs Baseball
Jeevus
12:26
People are saying Kelenic will be called up this weekend, but I am guessing not till June to further the narrative that he wasn't ready. What is your best guess?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
Have seen a ton of him this spring, he's mostly played CF here and clearly can't do that at the big league level. Bat has looked only okay, it's not like he's blown the doors off here in AZ the last couple of weeks, Julio has actually looked better than him in my looks.
The Other Dave
12:28
I obviously won't ask you who the Reds want in the draft because there's no possible way of knowing. But that team is in an interesting position with the 4th most bonus allotment, despite picking 17th (because they also have the 30th and 35th picks). Have you heard anything about what their overall strategy might be? Are they a candidate for getting anyone who falls?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
I don't have any specific intel yet, but agree they're in the catbird seat. I'd be looking to coax someone who should bo mid-first round back to pick 30 with an overslot number and then cut with a college guy who lacks leverage at 35.
Darren
12:31
Royals' fans are pumped for BWJ!  From a scout's perspective, did Witt do anything this spring to change the evaluation on him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
Nope. Bobby is really good, still think he ends up with fringe bat-to-ball skills but hits for power and plays the middle infield. A star player.
Tina (not from Bob's Burgers)
12:32
Carson Kelly is looking dope. Does he get more PT and be dope all year, oh mighty soothsayer?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
That's a tough one. I do think Vogt and Varsho will take at-bats from him based on handedness, but he'll end up producing similar to how he did in 2019.
Kate
12:35
Have you seen anything in India's play so far that surprised you?  He seems to be hitting the ball on the ground an awful lot.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
I've been surprised by how good he looks on defense, actually.
Trader Bob
12:35
Where are the Royals going to send Erick Pena to start the year and how far might they be willing to jump him up, if it's true as they say that they are no longer rebuilding at the MLB level?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
He was in the Hi-A game I saw the other day, but so was Wilmin Candelario and I'd be really surprised if they assigned him there. I'd guess Pena goes to Low-A to start.
Mr. Baseball
12:36
What made Lux such a highly regarded hitting prospect? He hasn't looked great at the plate in his time in the majors. Are you still confident he figures it out and becomes a star or is just an average regular?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
I mean, he hit .324/.399/.514 and .347/.421/.607 in consecutive seasons as a young-for-the-level 2B. I do think he has the yips, I think he's a little in his own head about his performance and he can't throw the ball accurately to 1B. He was a glove-first SS prospect in high school, I don't know how this happened. I still think he's going to be a good player (he'll rake but play LF/DH)
purplemini
12:40
Anything you've seen in very small Chris Rodriguez sample that makes you think he can become a starter? Or does he  belong in the bullpen?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
That delivery and his injury history is bullpen-only
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