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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 1/9/18
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:00
Good morning and Happy New Year from Tempe.
12:01
Hope that, eight days in, your year has been palatable.
Couple links: First, on the new Padres CF prospect. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-1-9/
12:03
Next, I was on this video podcast talking about prospects. https://www.fantrax.com/blog/baseball-show-s2-e6-guest-eric-longenhage...
12:04
And Kiley wrote this piece, which he and I (mostly he) chiseled over the weekend. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-status-of-the-scouts-vs-stats-deba...
Okay, let's A some Qs
Hotshot
12:04
Jesse Winker start opening day? Whats his outlook for the year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
I think so, and think he goes .270/.350/.430 or so with 15 homers
Bad defense, little else going on there aside from the bat
walewander
12:05
Who do you think the Tigers will take at 1-1? Who should they take?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
The guy with the talent to rise up and seize 1-1 is Nander De Sedas, but any of the better college arms could take a step forward and feel so safe that they go 1-1, we just don't know who that'll be for a while
cardinals farm
12:06
upside of cardinals RHP Jr Fernandez? haven't heard much about him since his breakout 2 years ago....
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
I consider him a reliever but I know scouts who think he can start. Two-pitch guy (FB/CH)
Bored Lawyer Esq
12:07
I’ve heard a lot about Caden Lemons having some serious velocity projection. Is that legit?  If he goes right, could he be a Thor type of development project?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Yeah, Lemons was up to 97 in the spring and then was 86-90 for me in the fall during instructs. He's a lanky, 6-foot-7 kid with lots of room to fill out, so I do think there will b e more fastball, but he doesn't have Syndergaard's frame, so let's not get too crazy.
THE Average Sports Fan
12:09
Do you think Gohara can be league average MLB Starter this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Yes
Josh
12:09
Forrest Whitley at the top of your pitcher prospect rankings?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
If not he's certainly near it.
Erik
12:10
Who will have more career WAR, JP Crawford or Scott Kingery? Where would you put the odds at for each of them at least developing into average regulars?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
It's a tough question. I'll say Crawford because I think he's going to play a good shortstop for a very long time, but Kingery is the better offensive player and I think he'll have a stronger peak.
Jon
12:12
Is there still hope for Travis Demeritte? Still only 23 with some interesting batted ball/on-base numbers.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
Reports on the bat speed and/or swing length this year were not good. That was not an issue before, not sure what the prognosis is for something like that. Bat speed is typically a constant.
Brian
12:13
How similar of players are Michael Gettys and Edward Olivares? MLB.com has Gettys as a higher rated prospect but they seem to be similar in their makeup of good defender with power but difficulty making contact. Which do you prefer?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
I agree that they have similar skillsets but I think the source of their whiffiness is different. Olivares' swing can get out of control, Gettys just doesn't have very good hand-eye. One of those is fixable. Gettys has more explosive, all-fields raw power while Olivares is pull-only. I'd take EO if I had to pick one.
Big Red Machine
12:15
Does Alex Verdugo turn into something like Christian Yelich?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
I like Verdugo but I think that's a too rich
Henryv
12:17
Okay, I hate to be this guy, but as an M's fan, can you talk me off a cliff in regards to our prospects?  I see a nearly zero chance of competing for the next 2-3 years, and the cupboards look bare.  Is this right?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
I really liked there draft (I love Sam Carlson and find Evan White fascinating) and July 2 signing of Julio Rodriguez, but it's a bad system. Perhaps the worst system. They have some guys but I imagine their prospect list will be this year's shortest.
DR
12:19
What differentiates a guy like Cole Ragans, with meh velo but deception and control, from Cody Reed (AZ) who has similar traits but got rather knocked around in Hi A?  Does Ragans have a legit risk of being exposed at higher minors in the same way?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
That's a fair question. I think the things that allow Reed to succeed (his loopy curveball, deception that helps his fastball sneak by hitters up in the zone) are more viable against lower-level hitters than Ragans' ingredients (Fastball has life, changeup plus, plus command projection) which we know work against big leaguers
Buckooos
12:23
Austin Meadows seems forgotten. You like him as a darkhorse breakout player in the majors this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
If he does away with what I consider to be ill-conceived adjustments, yeah.
And stays healthy..
Mattyb
12:24
What do you think the ceiling is for Dan Vogelbach?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
Below average regular
Stan
12:24
Is Josh Ockimey a legit prospect?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
Yes
Tribe fan
12:24
Have you seen Will Benson play? The tool set seems exciting: athlete with plus raw and plus speed, who's shown glimpses of both in game. Potential 2018 riser?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
And elite arm strength. Yeah, I'm a fan. Swing still needs work but if they can get him to hit his ceiling is huge.
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