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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Dave
12:44
Ethan Elliott (Padres) has carved through HiA after spending time with alternate site after ST. Is he on the fast track?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
I believe so. SD has a history of pushing arms like him quickly. I felt like I was aggressive with him on the SD list and already he might be too low
Daulton’s mom
12:45
Will Daulton Varsho ever hit in the majors?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
I think so, wish he'd get regular at-bats for more than six consecutive days...
Smalls
12:47
Hunter Greene has been dominate thus far and bias aside he seemed ranked low this off-season for someone who can so easily achieve elite high velocity.  Anything you’ve seen or heard that might merit and grade increase thus far? Reds have been hyping up his slider
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
Yes, his slider is better. Was ranked low due to injury and the way his delivery changed unexpectedly last year.
Joe H
12:50
Do you see any changes to the draft like reading picks, making the draft order a serpentine order to lesson the benefit of tanking, making teams that get a competitive balance pick spend a certain amount on their major league team or the team loses the pick?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:51
Yeah, I'd be into trading picks, and it'd be cool for there to be some post-season tournament in which non-playoff teams play for extra picks. I like some of your ideas but MLB isn't going to incentivize spending.
Recca
12:51
Could you rank some 2021 draft eligible catchers from the SEC? Opitz, Rodriguez, Kessler, Hickey, Milazzo, Praytor, Pavolony. Do you consider Kessler a dark horse candidate to be taken first from this group?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
Nice pull with Kessler, Lefty stick with good feel for contact, pretty simple cut, strength-driven gap power. Below avg receiever. I think his offensive potential means Hickey comes off first, then I think Kessler has an argument over Pav and Praytor because the feel for contact there is better. The other guys have more juice but I'm not sure their swings change. CJ and Milazzo feel like low-variance backups to me, I'm not an Opitz guy.
Phillip Jeffries
12:55
WE'RE NOT GONNA TALK ABOUT JUDY
Oddball Herrera
12:55
Been keeping an eye on Ha-Seong Kim at all?   His xWOBA has been creeping up to league average, am I foolishly holding out hope that this is just slowly coming out of an adjustment period?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:56
Nah, I think your heads on straight
Kevin
12:57
In a normal year, how many guys drafted in rounds 11-40 get a 6 digit bonus? How much could you expect if you’re a Juco guy (with a D1 scholarship pending) drafted in the 15-25 round range?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:00
another great question. You'll see lots of guys get $125k, maybe only a handful get something closer to 400k.You're shooting for that 125 to 250 range
Kevin
1:01
Is there generally a run on players in the 11th round, when teams can add $125k to their bonus without it counting? Like would the talent taken in the 11th be even better than the 9th/10th?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:02
Scouts have a 125k bucket of players and that 11th round is when you take the guys among them who you think are the best, it's also a time when teams have their bonus calc from the top ten rounds done and can take an over slot guy if they have the room in their pool.
Joe H
1:02
With fewer minor league teams and less of a need to fill out those rosters, do you think that changes how teams draft in the later rounds? Also do you still see teams aggressively taking senior signs to save money in rounds 7-10 to give larger bonuses to other players or do you think those rounds will be more chalk as far as talent?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:04
I think the glut of older college players after a 5 round draft means that something like what you're describing with the seniors will happen but it might be more discount covid juniors rather than true seniors. Pushing more of your bonus pool into fewer baskets makes sense if you have a really deep system with few minor league roster spots available.
Heg
1:05
So I know you (like most prospect writers) don't spend too much reading what other sites say in their evaluations. Even so, what do you think is happening when two or more sites report radically different tool grades and assessments on prospects they've seen at roughly the same time?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:06
Huh, I am nosy enough to wonder what you're referring to. There are lots of plausible explanations, the most likely of which is: someone is wrong. That happens.
Kate
1:06
Have you caught either of Jhoan Duran's first two starts at AAA?  Sounds like his stuff has been pretty electric.  Any chance we see him in the majors soon (once he's fully built up his pitch count)?  Have to think the Twins could use a talent injection at this point.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:07
I have not but I agree they need the jolt
Kevin
1:07
Are bonuses paid to 11th-40th round draftees made public? What’s the median/mean amount?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:07
Yeah, MLB has a great tracker: MLB Draft Tracker | MLB.com
I can't calc the mean for you in real time
Kate
1:07
What do you make of Kieboom at this point?  I assume he's still working on the swing change he implemented in the offseason at AAA (which is prob part of the reason for his struggles so far)?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:07
I'm just out
David
1:07
It seems overall there has not been a lot of prospect movement up levels yet, when do you think that will change? Next month? Post Draft?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:07
it's been a couple weeks
1:08
give it a few more
Mike
1:08
Would you still give Manoah a 45+ after the clear strides he made behind closed doors last year? Two pitches and spin rates look real
Eric A Longenhagen
1:09
I haven't watched yesterday's start yet because I was at games all day. I know he carved. If the changeup is better then he belongs on the 100. If it doesn't, he doesn't.
LFC Mike
1:09
Any adjusted expectations for Sixto Sanchez as looks like mid to late June for the call up?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:10
No, I expect he'll be solid when healthy but not always healthy
graphsman
1:10
will no-longer rookie-eligible players be removed from the board in season? mostly just think it'd be funny to see the White Sox system with their top 4 players all graduated
Eric A Longenhagen
1:10
they will be, let me finish these last couple lists
Kate
1:10
Any word on injuries to Jordan Adams and Jordan Walker?  Both have been kind of mysteriously missing without any real reports.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:11
Not sure, I'll have Adams news soon since Angels list is next. Will ask on Walker, too, thanks for the heads up
Super Max
1:11
How have you adjusted your Fastball scouting grades to ever increasing velocity?
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