Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Let's begin.
Oliver
12:02
Thoughts on Baby Sandman (Mariano Jr)? Looks like hes off to a good start, but k/9s dropped from last year and his walks are up a lot
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
Mariano III (that's right, he's a third, not a junior) hadn't played a whole lot of baseball before he was drafted so there's just more room to project on the total package. Value-wise, the upside is limited because he's never going to be more than a reliever.
Patrick
12:06
Best pitch featured by a Phillies pitcher: Nola's curveball, Vince's fastball, or Neris's splitter?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
Nola's curveball plays up against righties because of his arm slot and really isn't more than a 55 or 60. I'll say Neris' splitter. I have no idea where that came from.
Anonymous Coward
12:07
Thoughts on taking HS pitchers 1-1 in general? What about in the case of Groome?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
I think Groome is the most talented player in the class and I would have a hard time not taking the most talented player in the class if I were picking 1-1. Having said that, my job isn't going to be evaluated by how this pick turns out like the jobs of members of Philly's front office will. Given the track record of highly selected HS arms (which is bad) and Groome's off-field stuff (which just adds to his riskiness) it's justifiable to go in another direction.
Jack Glasscock's Cup
12:11
Have you seen or heard anything about Brady Aiken? Word is, he's throwing off a mound and may be pitching in games soon.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
Yup. Saw him throw a bullpen a little while ago and he's rusty but there are flashes of brilliance. He's going to face live hitting soon and will probably end up starting in the AZL once Extended wraps up. He's gotten big, like really big, and I showed a picture to a scout who saw him in HS who refuses to believe that it was Brady Aiken.
Rick
12:15
Are you writing any 2016 Draft material?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
Not for FG. It was too late in the game to leave Keith and ESPN hanging. That's why, if you want draft stuff from me that's not behind a pay wall, I suggest you ask now instead of questions like "When will Prospect X be in the majors?", which I can't answer because too many external variables impact stuff like that.
Ross
12:17
How is Alex Jackson looking these days? Is DJ Peterson a lost cause?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
Not good. I know he was just promoted but he didn't look good when I saw him down here a few weeks ago and scouts haven't found anything to be optimistic about. The bat speed is still there and the swing is still visually pleasing but he doesn't have bat control and everything triggers late. No bueno.
Alex
12:19
Are Delvin Perez's "character concerns" being overblown and overanalyzed or is it a legit worry? Is it just a young kid being immature or is it something more serious? Thanks Eric and glad to have you here at FG!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
I think it's justifiable for teams to worry about stuff like that if they're about to give the kid $6+ mil AND pass on other talented players to take him. I also think part of the reason teams shy away from player like Perez is because they're not confident in their own player devo infrastructure at the lowest levels. Ita's often insufficient, especially for players from other cultures.
wrburgess
12:26
Some of the negative views against Kyle Lewis is that he hasn't faced quality pitching in college, but he has performed well in Cape Cod and other spotlight sessions. Based on your own views, does low-quality pitching matter as much for his potential?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
It isn't Kyle Lewis' fault that the pitching he's faced at Mercer has mostly been bad and, other than maybe making it harder for him to adjust to seeing quality pitching more regularly in pro ball, it doesn't impact his potential. What it does do is make him harder to scout, since scouts want to see if you can track and square pro-quality stuff. Teams are risk-averse and not knowing whether Lewis can identify a 50 curveball simply because he's never had to makes him riskier than some Kyle Lewis clone who has raked in the SEC for three years.
Dock Ellis
12:30
Welcome to FG, Eric! I've been reading your stuff since the Crashburn Alley days. Two questions: How good is JP Crawford going to be, and do you have any funny Keith Law stories since you've worked with him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
I like Crawford a lot, think he's a 60 defender at SS (at least) and might even hit enough to slot near the top of a lineup. Not much in the way of funny Klaw stories because he doesn't do much other than go to baseball games, eat, take pictures of what he's eating, and source scouts when he's around me.
j6takish
12:34
What are your interests outside of baseball? We like to ask chatters non baseball questions. Jeff has volcanoes, eno has beer. Also people seem to have very polarizing opinions of Cistulli, do you find his antics delightful?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
I like other sports and coached basketball in PA before I moved to Arizona. Also like Magic: The Gathering. I rather enjoy Cistulli.
AJ Preller
12:35
Any worries about Javy Guerra, or just a slow start?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
Was in to see him a few weeks ago at Elsinore and he looks fine. He's only a 45 runner but he's so smooth at SS that I think it works. Bat control, good hand-eye, sneaky power....I like him a lot. Luis Urias is really interesting, too.
Dave
12:37
Lots of hype around Kevin Maitan. Is he a potential superstar or is the hype a bit too much? How does Maitan at 16 and Sano at 16 compare in your opinion?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
Bocaton > Maitan
12:38
Part of why Maitan was on the radar so early is because of how seen he matured, physically. But he'll probably still be atop my J2 board.
Dooduh
12:38
Where do you rank Chris Okey of the top catchers in the draft? Think he makes it thru rd 1?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
There are, weirdly, a lot of interesting catching prospects in this year's draft and Okey has a better shot at remaining behind the plate than guys like Thaiss and Collins, though it isn't a lock. I don't think Okey goes in Rd1 unless it's for under slot, though.
Dooduh
12:41
Why isn't Robert Tyler getting more love? Looks like a beast to me. Should go in the top half of rd 1 IMO. Haven't seen him that high in any mocks tho. Thoughts?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
Some injury history, control issues, doesn't consistently get on top of his curveball. I love the arm strength and the changeup, but it's hard to teach any pitching prospect, let alone a college one, a better curveball than they naturally possess.
Bren
12:45
Would Will Craig be a big overdraft for the Mets at #19? Any chance they can get him at #31, or do they have to pop him if they think he's there guy?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
In a vacuum, Craig is an overdraft at #19. BUT if you go underslot with Craig at 19 and use the savings to grab a falling high school arm at #31? Take a bow.
AJ Preller
12:46
Who is the better hitter, Ray or Senzel?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:47
Senzel has the better hit tool, Ray might end up with a higher career batting average.
Bill
12:48
IIRC you noticed some stride issues with JP Crawford during the AFL this past fall. Anything different now?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
Yeah, Crawford has undergone some changes to his stride over the past year+. I'll see him next month and will be looking to see if he's either a) adjusted to the change and looks more comfortable or b) scrapped it and gone back to what made him successful before that.
James
12:51
Could Nolan Jones be in play for the Phillies at 42?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:51
Can't see him falling that far, top 15 talent for me.
Georgie
12:51
What do you think about Casey Gillaspie's start to the season? Do you think he can make it to the majors by the end of this year if he can keep this improvement the rest of the way?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:52
I didn't like what I saw in last year's AFL and wouldn't get my hopes up just yet.
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