JotCast | Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat

Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat

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Nientsniew

12:19

What did you think of bellingers huge swing at the all star game? Does he always swing like that?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:19

I love it but acknowledge that an approach like that has drawbacks. Yes, he does that all the time.

Nientsniew

12:19

What's your take on Ryan mcmanhon? He can murder the ball

Eric A Longenhagen

12:20

Fatal swing and miss

Erik

12:20

70 grades are probably the hardest to picture for me. I think I imagine most tools higher than "very good" (60) as "elite" (80). Could you give some examples of major leaguers with tools that are definitively better than 60 but also definitively not 80?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:23

A lot of runners like Cesar Hernandez are 7s, Corey Seager's hit tool, Rizzo's game power, Adeiny Hecchevaria's glove, Maikel Franco's arm,...

Max

12:23

Do you know what the deal is with Royals 2015 first rounder Ashe Russell? He pitched just 2 IP this year and his velo was reportedly way down, but no reports of injury.

Eric A Longenhagen

12:24

I do not know what the deal is but I've asked.

Dubon Guy

12:24

What's made you change your perspective on Dubon? What do you think his Big League production will be like?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:25

Scouts I trust told me to take a good hard look and I have and I'm coming around but not diving in just yet.

NutButters

12:25

My dad reports from the AFL: Greg Bird will need at least half of 2017 at AAA, looks like a future .260 hitter with questionable D. Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:25

Your dad is on it.

12:25

Is Wilbeto Rivera creeping up draft boards? Mature body and high velo is something scouts like in the Top 50, right?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:25

Yeah , with that kind of velo (even though scouts don't like the delivery) he's probably a top 2 rounds guy just on the stuff.

Erik

12:26

What would the FV of a hitter with an 80-grade hit tool and absolutely nothing else be? How high would the rest of the tools have to be for such a player to have a 50 FV?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:27

Depends on the context. 80-hit at age 23 with no physical projection has a different FV than an 80-hitter who is 19, 6'2, 170. Latter question depends heavily on defensive profile. I'll say that I've scouted guys I thought had 70 hit tools who weren't prospects because the rest of the tools were 30s and 40s.

Erik

12:28

For the past few years of prospect lists I've seen, every pitcher destined for relief was seen as essentially a non-prospect. I've noticed a few relievers in the lists you've published so far receiving rather positive grades. Is that due to a change in the way relievers seem to be valued in the MLB over the last year or so?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:29

Somewhat. Middle relievers are 40s on the scale and I'm writing up all 40 FVs or better for my lists, so high-probability relievers make the cut.

Erik

12:29

I believe you've mentioned before that rather than introducing an international draft, you'd be in favor of scrappy the existing domestic amateur draft. What would you replace it with that would ensure that struggling teams still have an advantage over powerhouses when trying to rebuild? Or do you not care about that, and would advocate a free for all instead?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:30

I'm for doing what's best for the prospects which is an open market where they can choose their employer.

Buddy Biancalana

12:30

Do you think Raul Mondesi ever hits decently? He's so young but looked pretty bad. What FV grade would you give him now?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:30

I do not think he'll hit.

Chapman

12:30

Your thoughts on CIN SP Rookie Davis? Is a top 100 type?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:30

Nice FB/CRV combo, may not have a way to get lefties out, stuff doesn't merit top 100 consideration for me.

Tondo

12:31

Hi Eric! Any notes on the Indians prospects in the AFL? Greg Allen looks more and more like a legit CF starter kit, right? Can Yu-Cheng Chang stay at SS and did you see overall improvement? Thanks

Eric A Longenhagen

12:31

I wrote both those guys up mid-year and my thoughts on them are the same. I love Allen, like Chang but think the latter is probably a 2B.

Andy

12:31

On Twitter you said Trey Ball hit 94 MPH with his fastball which seems faster than what I heard with him as a starter. How would you grade him overall?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:32

It was a brief outing in the Fall Stars game so the velo may have ticked up because of that. It's back end starter stuff for me. Avg cutter and curveball.

Erik

12:32

Cesar Hernandez just put up a 4 WAR season, which translates to about a 65 FV on the scouting scale. Would a prospect with his tools ever come close to a 65 FV projection?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:33

No and I don't think he's a 4 WAR player going forward. Defensive metric outlier is a huge red flag there. more of a 1.5-2 WAR player for me, a 45.

jon

12:33

Ian Happ: potential 3 war player?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:34

I think highly of the bat, yes.

He'll probably need to stay at 2B for that.

The Pitch Clock

12:34

Which 2016 Dodger draftee do you prefer ? Peters or Thomas?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:34

Peters but I do like Thomas.

Zack

12:34

How is it that Bryce Harper is on the cover of SI at 16, but a guy like Trout falls to 24 on draft day? What did we not see with Mike?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:35

Rained a lot in NJ that year and decision makers at the top of the draft didn't see a lot of him as a result. hard to be confident taking a guy in the top 10 that you don't have a long, deep history of seeing.

baby bull

12:35

first to make impact in MLB Francisco Mejia or Yohander Mendez? Who ends up the better player?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:35

Mendez on both

Mitch

12:35

Is Juan Soto a top 100 type guy for you do you think or is he too far off?

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