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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Good morning from Tempe, hope you're all well. ICYMI, the Royals prospect list went up yesterday and I'm finishing up Detroit today before moving on to the NL Central. Let's begin...
Roadhog
12:03
Any thoughts on Paul Blackburn?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
Teams typically need 10 starters to get through a season and Blackburn projects as one of those 10, an up and down depth arm.
Bill
12:04
I miss Josh Tobias and wish him the best. Thoughts on him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
Good feel for the barrel, good approach, scouts don't like the defense at 2B and he doesn't have the power to profile anywhere else so it's a bench bat profile. He'll need to diversify his defensive portfolio moving forward.
John
12:05
Which level of the Padres minor league system will be the one to watch?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
The AZL
BK
12:05
What are the odds Vlad Jr enters the majors as a third baseman?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
I'd ballpark it around 15-20%?
Jesse
12:06
Do you think Forrest Snow will get a cup of coffee? Signing with the Brewers seems like a smart bet for a 27ish year old trying to make it.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
I think that's reasonable. Bob Ross episodes are on Netflix if you want to see a lot of forest snow immediately.
Pat
12:07
Strahm's profile reads a lot like Rich Hill or 2016 Drew Pomeranz (with more velo), do you think those two are within the range of outcomes?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
Strahm more athletic than Pomeranz and arguably more pitch projection because of the development time he lost recovering from TJ for two years.
John
12:08
With Renfroe/Margot making their big league debuts last season, who is the next top padre prospect to get the call?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
10k words on the system here. Nobody huge next year but the fun name to watch is Phil Maton. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-reports-san-diego-padres/
Kim
12:09
Are you checking it twice?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
At least, for typos.
Benbadatroto
12:10
Eric, what is the dream ceiling for Meadows? Can he be a superstar?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
It's approaching that. I'd say "star", 4 WAR annual type of guy is the ceiling I think
Tom
12:10
Do you think Mallex should be starting every game in Atlanta? Not over Inciarte but in a corner spot? I guess my question is basically: "Can Mallex outproduce one or both of Matt Kemp/Nick Markakis?"
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
I'd give him every opportunity to develop in the big leagues, which means a ton of at-bats.
I also think there's an argument to be made for giving players reps in their ultimate role. So, if ATL thinks Smith is just a 4th outfielder, it might behoove them to let him get used to not playing everyday, hitting cold in the 7th inning, etc.
John
12:12
Have you heard anything on an inning restriction for Cal Quantril, or is his tommy John recovery now behind him? Will that effect his movement through the system this season?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
I assume he'll be handled carefully next year but don't know of a specific inning limit.
Chase Kimura
12:13
Should I start getting excited about Jahmai Jones? Obviously, he's the best prospect in the Angels system, but I can't help but think he's got the potential to be an everyday left fielder on a competitive team. Jones/Trout/Calhoun, babyyyy
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
I think it's fine to be excited about Jones. Good athlete, great makeup, excellent feel to hit, plays CF for me.
Bob
12:13
Other than Joe Jimenez, are there any potential dominant reliever prospects close to the majors?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
Reports on Jimenez's stuff haven't inspired awe but he's better than the usual relief prospect. Carson Fulmer, Joan Gregorio, I like Miguel Castro as a post-hype prospect
12:16
Oh, and Enrique Burgos
johnforthegiants
12:16
What kind of seasons do you see out of Margot and Dahl in 2017? Can Bregman have a 6 war season this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
Margot better D, Dahl better stick, 6 WAR for Bregman seems high but every time I've doubted that dude he makes me look like a moron.
DR
12:17
What differentiates Maitan at this stage from other recent top international bats (Mazara, etc) at the same stage in their development? Present tools or projection? Something more?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
The combo of hit/power coupled with the chance to stay on the left side of the infield.
Twins Fan
12:17
Thoughts on Yadier Alvarez included in a potential dozier trade?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
Would endorse. Think he's #1 in that system.
Lenny
12:17
There might be an obvious answer to this, but it's a little confusing to me. The Mariners got Whalen and Povse from the Braves who seem like very different prospects. Whalen is a relatively high floor, low ceiling prospect (right?) SP and is 22. Povse is a higher ceiling SP who is further away from the majors, but is 23. What about their arsenal/makeup/etc. would have the older player both higher ceiling and also further away from the majors? Hope that makes sense.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
Whalen's ceiling is lower because a) he's just not very good and b) the cement on the body is dry. Povse's ceiling is a #4/5 starter but he's got room to fill out or add some command because it takes big guys longer to learn to control their bodies....there's just a chance something more comes with Povse.
Erik
12:19
What are the odds Moncada's strikeout rate sinks him, despite his other tools? Does he have something like a 10-20% chance of being nothing more than a AAAA player? I know prospects are highly volatile, even the best ones, so is even that underselling his risk?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
Yeah I think the bust potential is probably in the range you've outlined. My fellow FG writers are concerned about the K's but KATOH loves Moncada anyway, which puzzles me. I think he's #1 in baseball.
Justin
12:20
Where would you rank Giolito on your White Sox top prospects list?
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