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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Erik
12:20
Could you talk a bit about what made JP Crawford fall behind Amed Rosario? They have very similar grades across the board, but Crawford has slightly lower power. But Rosario hasn't actually shown much power, with 5 HRs across A+ and AA last year as a 20-year old. Crawford had 6 at the same levels and age the year before. Aren't they on the same track, with Crawford being a year closer to the majors?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
I think Rosario's power potential is way up above Crawford's.
Alex
12:21
If you could compare pre-2016 AJ Reed with current Cody Bellinger, who would be the better prospect? Is Bellinger destined for the same struggles Reed had after making his MLB debut?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
It's important to note that I've never been a huge AJ Reed fan compared to others, though I think he's a solid prospect. Bellinger is just better. Better defender, more athletic. Yes, he might struggle upon callup because of the aggressiveness in the swing and just because Major League Baseball is very difficult.
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:23
I know it was a SSS, but Judges' exit velocities have been literally off-the-charts. Given 500+ AB this year, what should we expect, 30HR?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
I think you're getting ahead of yourself a little bit, but that's what I'd project from Judge at peak. Not in his first full year, though. Pitchers in the division are already scheming ways to get him out.
Drew
12:25
What is the success rate on moving catchers to first base? It seems they are all 4 hit 5 power guys. Everyone acknowledges that 1B only prospect are risky so why draft a guy like that?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
There's probably an objective answer to this question that I simply don't have. But I think you're right to guess that it's probably low.
ChiSox2020
12:26
Reaction to Giolito's outing yesterday?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
He was 90-93, tough to hit when it was down but not otherwise. Curveball low-80s, had good shape but nobody offered at it. It was the Cubs' starting lineup so that was probably a factor. Change was 80-84, about average, he goofed Miguel Montero with a couple of those. It was okay for a first go.
12:28
Body looks great. I'm uploading video from the outing now, so that will probably be done in May #CenturyLink
Moltar
12:28
Am I wrong to think Rosario will be up by september, if not sooner? if he's mashing in AA and the Mets have an injury in the infield I am certain they'd call him up before spending money on a trade.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
I could see that happening, sure. So much of prospect promotion is the result of random injuries, it's why I'm not a fan of projecting ETAs. We really don't know and neither do teams.
Babe Lincoln
12:29
Why isn't PJ Conlon a top-20 prospect for the Mets?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
Couldn't find scouts who bought into the stuff. Results have been great, stuff is fringey. If he pitches well at Double-A, it's time to consider whether there's something truly sustainable going on there.
benjamin
12:30
does hunter greene have a very good chance to remain a starter?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
I think so. Elite level athlete for a pitcher, delivery is gorgeous, prototypical size/strength, there's nothing not to like.
Drew
12:31
What is the quickest that you can NP a 1st rounder? Do they never totally fall off the radar no matter how poorly they perform?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
Probably by the next year's Instructional League. I'd have enough respect for the club and its scouts to give 16-18 months for the kid they all believed in to make me believe, enough with guys like Cito Culver or Zach Cone who were clear overdrafts.
Drew
12:32
What does SSS mean? I see you use it in some chats and I must have missed its inception.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
Small Sample Size. Welcome to the club.
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:33
Saw Gio Gallegos pitch yesterday. He seems to have a sneaky fastball and a pretty nasty breaking ball. Is a David Robertson comp fair?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
Yup, 90-94 with a 6 curveball and throws strikes. Wouldn't comp him to Robertson just because I generally avoid comps.
Nick
12:34
I often hear of the limits of a linear swing plane. Which prospects would benefit the most from getting away from a linear swing and how difficult is that transition?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
Prospects with swings like that but need game power to profile at their respective positions would benefit from a change but you're right to assume it's a difficult change to make. There's a litany of hit-before-power second base prospects who'd benefit from a change.
Jake
12:36
when you say that fernando romero's stuff is "mean", what does that mean?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
Just that it's good. Mid-90s, hard slider.
Jon
12:36
Tigers will likely need to pick one of Dixon Machado or Steven Moya and DFA the other due to roster spots. Who would you keep?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
Machado
976
12:36
What can you tell me about Jio Orozco? Does he stay a starter, and what's the ceiling there?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
Saw Jio in high school and then 5+ times with Seattle before the trade. 88-93, a little bit of sink, plus changeup, below average curveball. Took well to the changes Seattle's staff made after they drafted/signed him, he looked a lot different as a pro than he did in high school. He's a nice little pitching prospect, potential #4/5 starter.
Ronnie
12:39
Any thoughts on Tristan Archer as a sleeper relief prospect? I saw him in a ST game the other day and the movement on both his sinker & slider looked pretty nuts. 9:1 K/BB ratio in AA last year & has done a decent job suppressing HRs throughout his minor league career.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
Was not on my radar as an elder statesman in Double-A but if I run into him this spring I'll write him up for you.
The Tone
12:40
Nice work on the Mets list! This is a general question, but I thought of it in reference to Justin Dunn: when a pitching prospect is already sporting a potentially plus breaking ball, is it generally preferable for him to scrap any other breaking ball that is lagging significantly behind? With Dunn I just wonder if he should stick to the slider and focus on perfecting his changeup (which you noted has good potential). I'll hang up and listen.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
There are those in baseball who think mixing two breaking balls, especially ones that are similar in shape and velocity to begin with, is a bad idea. If a pitcher shows no ill-effects from throwing both and indeed uses them both in effective ways (like we've seen Maeda and Darvish do when everyone talked about them scrapping their loopy curveballs when they signed) I'm fine with it. As far as Dunn goes, the Mets know more about that situation than I do and they've successfully developed pitchers with both a slider and curve before.
Jack
12:43
Jose Albertos vs Sixto Sanchez. Who do you like better?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
Please don't make me.
We've seen Sixto do it for a full pro season of innings so I'll say him but that's the only reason I can conjure off the top of my head. They're both really fun prospect to write about.
Mike
12:44
Any under the radar prospect you see climbing up the Yankees lists a year from now?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
I like Jeff Hendrix
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