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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Happy Friday morning, you hosers! It's Fall League semi-final day so I'll be (I think boldly/stupidly) riding my bike to Scottsdale Stadium this afternoon and mourning the end of our domestic baseball-watching calendar...
12:07
This week I posted an update to the Foreign Pro Prospect list, and the Angels list...
12:08
I also made some tweaks to what reads out on The Board: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball
Thanks to Sean Dolinar for implementing this during the week
12:09
Okay, vamanos a su preguntas
Phil
12:09
Updated thoughts on Denzel Clarke after his recent season and any looks at the AFL?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
He has made some of the most ridiculous and incredible plays at the wall that I've ever seen. I think it will take a while for him to hit (if it happens at all) but in the meantime he absolutely has a role on a team as a plus defensive center fielder.
He's just such a remarkable athlete and runner, truly special watching him go first to third or home
12:11
he leapt so high trying to rob a homer this week that his thighs were at the top of the wall and he toppled over it. In CF, not the dugout railing
bk
12:11
How do you as a prospect evaluator handle seasons like Nimmala’s, where half was awful, and the other half was great?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
I'd look to see if there is visual evidence of an adjustment in the second half. Because Arj played in the FSL there's scrapeable data that might show him improving in chase/whiff against breaking stuff later in the year
that's how I'd approach him, specifically, knowing issues with spin were present as an amateur (I had him late first round)
Eamus Catuli
12:14
Which Cubs prospect do you see having the highest ceiling? Do they have superstar potential somewhere on the farm?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
I know it's not sexy and new to say this because he's been around forever, but isn't it Kevin Alcantara? A 6-foot-6 22 year old CF with power and speed? It's him. Cam Smith is probably next, Angel Cepeda might be the sneaky sleeper name you're looking for.
Broken Pitchers
12:15
Has Alex Santos turned a corner?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
He's a 40 RP for me (which is good). Mid-90s, cutter, curveball, everything a little better than average for me but nothing consistently plus. Don't think he's a late-inning guy or mid-rotation starter, though.
MetsHead
12:17
Drew Gilbert seems to have found his power stroke but lost contact.  Is this all rust, or a shift in skill set?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
His head has been flying all over the place when he swings, it was true when I saw him with Syracuse around Labor Day (though I think he was freshly off injury then?) and has remained so. Definitely looks more like a 45 than a true everyday guy
Say Whaaaaaa
12:19
Did Chase Meidroth do enough this year at AAA to move up to the 45+ tier? Can he be something like a MI utility version of Schanuel?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
He just doesn't have the kind of physical tools I'm looking for when we're talking about a grade that high. What grade would you put on Schanuel?
Nolan Schanuel's Grade
60 (0% | 0 votes)
 
55 (0% | 0 votes)
 
50 (18.8% | 6 votes)
 
45 (62.5% | 20 votes)
 
40 (18.8% | 6 votes)
 
Total Votes: 32
TJ
12:21
Steamer has Ben Rice at a 115 wRC+ for 25. He had a 16% barrel last year. You really think he's a fringe 40 man guy?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
I do, I love his ability to snatch those high fastballs, and no doubt big physical guys with lefty power like him are the sorts who break late and have a relevant window...
12:22
But Rice hit like .180 against non-fastballs last year. There's a way to get him out and I think big league clubs tend to figure that out and exploit it. The projection models loved Davis Schneider, too.
Busts
12:23
Ultimate small sample size, but based on their pro debut which 2024 first rounder do you think is mostly likely to fail in 2025
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
Condon's was pretty concerning
Kave Dingman
12:24
Years ago, I worked with a guy whose son was a 25th rounder and pitched in the minors and in Indy ball. He basically said that if you were a top pick, you would have to "work on" specific things. Like improving your curveball would mean EVERY batter gets a 1st pitch curve. Which doesn't take long for the other team to figure out. The result is that top prospects results will suffer, meanwhile the pitcher is progressing.

How much of this is still true and how much does it impact the statistics of the top prospects/
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
I agree that there are instances where this happens but it's rarely for so long that it has a huge impact on anyone's statistical performance across a big enough sample. For me, for scouts, or even for analysts I think being sensitive to the possibility that stuff like this might be going on is important...
For instance, Griff McGarry used to have a great changeup. He hasn't thrown his changeup for me in the AFL. When I do the Phillies list, I have to dive into that either in his regular season data and film, or by asking someone with Philly why this is the case.
Mlong
12:27
Are you going to rank Roki this year?  What about Sugano? I forget where you draw the lines on rank vs don't rank?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
The way we've settled on it (Meg and I liked JJ Cooper's logic) is that the guys who are subject to Int'l Bonus Pools get ranked, the guys who've played enough to be posted free agents do not.
12:29
We used to use whether or not the p[layer was Rookie of the Year eligible, which applied to Yamamoto, Imanaga, etc., because my logic was, "give people all the info you can, don't take stuff away", but when Yoshida said he felt disrespected by being on ROY ballots at his age/experience I became open to change
I think the BBWAA should agree to cut off ROY voting with the same definition. Having Yamamoto, etc. be ROY eligible impacts how teams view Prospect Promotion Incentives
Sodo Mojo
12:30
When you have a team like the Mariners who have to very batter friendly A ball home parks what are you looking at from a stats perspective when you are trying to judge their hitters at that level.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
Park-independent stuff like contact rates and hard hit rates. Basically the same stuff as I'd look for from anyone else. The home park factors just influence how much I care about triple slash lines and such
Vslyke
12:31
Jared Jones slumped as the season went on - is he going to be strong enough to hold up over a full season?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
It's a great question that has been part of his profile for his entire prospectdom, and he'll either get to prove it or not. He's a special enough athlete that I am optimistic.
Perfect timing
12:32
I was just offered Xavier Isaac in OttoNeu. 80/80/80/80 power.   Any chance of 2025 MLB contributor?  One ink says "excellent bat control"; another K rate is exploding. You say?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
K's exploding, not a 2025 contributor, still believe in the power long term
He might be dealing with persistent wrist or hand stuff? He's had a brace on sometimes here
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