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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
Nobody should keep any team away from Machado.
Frankie
12:23
Who is the Yankees top prospect once Gleyber gets to the bigs?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
Since Gleyber probably won't lose rookie-eligibility until late 2018, if that, Judge, Frazier and maybe even Kaprielian will likely have graduated at that point so probably Rutherford.
saditude
12:24
Just a general question to further understand FV ratings: A 40 or 45 FV for many/most minor league position players between the ages of 21-24 is basically a "they look like org depth until they show something scouts haven't seen." Is this a fair assessment? I guess I am wondering how to rate a farm system with a large amount of 40-45 FV talent between low A and AA/AAA. Do you have a sense of a percentage of those players who 'take an unexpected leap forward'? Fewer than 3%?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
40s from that age range are made up of either low-risk 5th starters, utility types (usually ones that can't play SS because they'd be 45s if they could) or bench outfielders. 45s in that age range are usually #4/5 starters, utility guys who can play short and low-end everyday players. Those are good prospects.
Ryan Dunne
12:27
Do we still put too much stock in minor league numbers now that more and more organizations are emphasizing process over production?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
I consciously avoid putting much stock in #'s beneath Double-A but I can't speak for the royal we. I'd trust your friendly neighborhood scouting writer before a statline.
Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler
12:28
Who is the best pitching prospect who hasn't seen MLB time yet?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
I'd take Espinoza but would accept arguments for 3-5 other guys like Kopech, Yadier Alvarez..
Gest
12:30
If Ariel Hernandez was coming out of college next year, about where would teams have him on their draft boards?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
He's 25
12:32
21 year olds with that fastball/breaking ball combo but bad control probably go in the 2nd or third round
Gest
12:34
Is it weird when a pitcher who gets good movement on his 2 seamer doesn't get good movement on his changeup? Gsellman seems to be like this.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
Nah, other than the shape of the movement on the pitches, they're very different.
12:35
There seems to be positive correlation between fastball spin rate and fastball movement
but spin and movement on changeups are the inverse
Drew
12:36
With the recent power surge, do we need to reframe how we think about the 20-80 scale for power? Or are prospects with 45/50 power just not as valuable as they used to be?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
I know some teams are monitoring the scale and have at least considered tweaking it based on the way outputs are changing, but others think the communicative value is more important than the scale being scientifically accurate (I fall into this camp) or that we don't have enough data to justify doing it yet.
@RationalMLBfan
12:37
The Yankees have been moving Gleyber Torres around--some time at 2B, and some talk of getting him time at 3B. It's good for players to be versatile, but doesn't this diminish his value? (A bat that is good at SS may not be as valuable at 3B, for example.) Should the Yankees let Torres master SS and instead let lesser prospects (Wade, Mateo) focus on versatility?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
I think the roster flexibility a player's versatility allows provides value and I like that they're expanding the horizons of those middle infielders.
12:39
And not everyone is sure they like Gleyber at short anyway.
I think he'll be fine there
Brian
12:40
During your research, what has surprised you about the Yankees' farm system thus far? Anyone you are unexpectedly higher on, lower on? Thanks.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
Leo Molina isn't all that far behind the Garcias or Florial.
Rebel IPA
12:40
Which prospects have impressed you the most so far in ST?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
Anthony Banda is throwing really hard, seen him up to 96. Jeimer Candelario looks more agile and better at third base. True Minor League games don't start until next week though, so I've only seen some guys in big league games and it's hard to scout there because of the sea of humanity that has descended upon my utopia.
Ted
12:42
Is it me, or is the nationals' farm system pretty uninspiring at the moment? Outside of robles that is.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
It's not all that sexy, probably a tick below average as farm systems go. But part of that is because they've graduated someone good just about every year for the last several years and that's part of why, as is their pursuit of a title which sucked three good arms out of the system.
Harvey Birdman
12:44
What was the report on Nick Quintana as an amateur? Has he improved on anything in particular? His start is quite something for a FR
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
I was on him. Hit/power potential at 2B, some scouts liked him as a catcher because nobody thought he'd stay at SS. Body has gotten stronger sooner than I expected.
Dodger Guy
12:46
O'Neil Cruz sounds like he's been turning some heads in ST. Is there significant power there?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:47
Haven't seen him yet but check out the frame on him as an amateur...
If he has begun to fill out, that power may have begun to arrive. He'll be fun to catch during Extended.
Carl
12:47
Cody Bellinger is getting a ton of hype this year. Who is better, both this year and long-term, among him, Brinson and Austin Meadows?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
I have Meadows, Bellinger, then Brinson
The Cincinnati Kid
12:49
Does the current crop of prospects feel higher, lower, or about what you'd expect from year-to-year. A different way of asking is, do the 65s, 60s, 55, 50s, etc. seem to be the same this year as other years, or is the well a little dry compared to 3 years ago?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
Definitely lower than recent years when we've graduated Lindor, Bryant, Russel, Correa and on and on. Not sure if that means the minor are bad right now or just that those years were superlative. It's a better question for Klaw, Callis or Manuel who have been doing this since before I had facial hair and have more context.
soaktherich
12:51
Is a relatively unknown 80 speed guy like Cuban prospect Dairon Blanco worth a shot as possibly Billy Hamilton 2.0? Having him available as a post-season pinch runner (while grooming him in AAA during the season) should be worth something in itself, right?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:51
Perhaps but based on what I've seen from Blanco he doesn't have a good feel for CF at all, despite the speed. That might be because he hasn't played in games lately, though.
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