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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Good morning from Tempe. I indeed have COVID and am  probably going to do an abbreviated version of chat today. If anyone wants two Todd Barry tickets for tonight at Crescent Ballroom they should holler at me.
Andy
12:03
It's early but any thoughts on next year's draft class?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
I really like the HS class, I think the college pitching crop will be way better than last year, I'm not sure Ethan Holliday is actually good
Syndergaardengnomes
12:04
Too soon for a breakdown of the top rule 5 guys available?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
It's just such an inefficient, open-ended exercise with an enormous player pool. I could spend a while just scrolling through Roster Resource picking names that stand out to me, but now is not the time for it.
12:06
Evan Reifert was one, just browsing the site like normal this week, that stood out to me.
himona
12:06
CHW hired Ryan Fuller from BAL as “hitting coordinator”. what was BAL’s draft and dev strategy that produced them so many good young hitters?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
They basically used the Elias-era Houston formula when they picked way up top and were able to land consequential over slot high schoolers in later rounds. Mayo and Gunnar the big two. They also, internally, turn plate discipline and approach into a game within the game which seems to improve the players in a meaningful way
John
12:08
Do the Dodgers move Rushing to the OF so they can fit his bat in sooner? Or focus more on developing his skills as a C.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
I wouldn't be dying to move him out from behind the plate, you need to have depth at that position because it's so brutal.
Alexis Anthopolous
12:09
Just how bad do the returns for Murphy and Olson look for the (not Sac) A’s?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
Langeliers redeems the Olson trade enough and a bunch of those guys are going to play in the big leagues for at least a little while. Pache flopping hurts but that one isn't awful. The Murphy deal is. I just think they really, really over-evaluated Esteury. They seemed hot for him the deadline before, too.
Jeremy
12:11
Should the Phillies be planning on Andrew Painter in the rotation all season in 2025?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
Just because of innings count/workload stuff, probably not.
Tacoby Bellsbury
12:12
How do you integrate ZiPS or other projection systems into your analysis?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
It can be a sanity check, it might cause me to re-evaluate someone if there's a huge gap between what ZiPS thinks and what I think. I use data to inform decisions but I'm not running a model.
Guest
12:15
Hi Eric,

Thanks for these chats. I'm forever gleaning opinions on prospects. However,nI have several prospects whose recent performance leaves me questioning whether to cut bait or not:

1. Mick Abel, P PHI - control is atrocious and hasn't improved as he's moved up the system. Put him on the trade block - ZERO interest. You've given him a 50 FV. Still valid? He's descending prospect charts very quickly.

2. Carson Whisenhunt, P SF - always suspicious of guys lacking a decent FB. Numbers don't impress.Another 50 FV but I don't see it. SF does need pitching so I presume he's relevant still.

3. Nehomar Ochoa Jr., OF HOU - not showing much at A-, BA gives him a 45 FV an HQ rates him highly. Your thoughts?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
  1. I updated Abel thoughts in my 40-man piece this week. His blurb on The Board is fresh.
  2. Yeah, his command is still not great and he might slide. Giants list is one of the next few.
  3. Never really on him, BA doesn't use FV.
davealden53
12:16
What's the future of Jett Williams given the massive block in front of him in the Mets infield?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
CF
Kevin
12:16
As a Guardians fan, my eyebrows were raised seeing Chase DeLauter now ranked 10th overall on the big board. Is it safe for me to get excited about him or should I wait until he can stay on the field for a fairly long period of time?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
Persistent injuries are an issue that will cause him to slide as I do this list cycle
yanks-fan
12:18
Long term do we like Rafael Flores or Ben Rice more? Can either stay behind the dish?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
Flores basically didn't play in AFL so my thoughts there are sadly TBD. Rice, no. They have their catcher, it's Wells.
Jerry
12:19
Can Alan Roden (112 max EV) access some latent power and have a shot as a regular in 2025? Any other underrated OF's to keep an eye on for next season?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
Still not a ton of launch there, hard hit rate also not crazy or anything. I think he's more a piece than a regular. For next year? I feel like Trei Cruz could be a Willi Castro type... underrated guys? IDK, open ended questions like that are tough in the moment. And also, I'm doing the rating right?
Guest
12:22
Is Cartaya out of the picture as a prospect?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
No, catchers take forever. He's flawed, you hope he's Zunino type or becomes Tyler Flowers or something
Sodo Mojo
12:24
Does Ben Williamson have enough bat to hit at the MLB level.? You gave him a low grade on the Mariners prospect report but he did hit reasonably at AA which is usually where hitting prospects go to die in the M's org.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
The grade is low but he made the list. I have an up/down on him, still think that's right.
Thrice
12:25
Got to see them last June in Seattle for the Artist in the Ambulance tour, phenomenal show. Hope you feel better soon.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
The Marquee was as full as I've ever seen it, huge age range for the attendees which was super cool. I did have a bartender with tattoos all over his bald head ask me when I ordered a gimlet, "is that the kind of drink you want in a plastic cup?" and I had to stop myself from Larry Daviding him into the void.
tumtum
12:26
Did you get a chance to see Liranzo in AFL? If so, what did you think of his catching and long term viability in the position?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
Arm is there, ball blocking is not, it will probably take another few years but he has so much switch hitting power for a catcher that I think he'll eventually be very good
Colin
12:27
Why are people falling all over themselves over Caleb Durbin's AFL performance when he had a basically identical performance in 2023, and was a year younger then?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
Is this a thing happening on social media or something? Who cares? He's a Yankees prospect so people are going to talk about him, he steals bases so fantasy people care about him.
Anon
12:29
Can you expand more on the orioles farm game within a game for approach and plate discipline?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
It's like: expected value added for swinging at this, ev lost for chasing that.
David
12:30
Bit of a late draft question. Thoughts on the Mariners approach to drafting the last couple years? Putting a lot into the top of the draft and going after "priority seniors" to offset the draft pool amounts.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
Super cool, they've been able to scoop up a combination of ceiling (with the HS guys), depth, and proximity by getting the priority seniors.
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