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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
Good morning from Tempe. COVID wrecked your boy's thanksgiving but I'm good to go to winter meetings. My cat came home with dilated pupils last night and the other one couldn't stop smelling him. I have no other life updates.
Mortons
12:14
Quick scouting report on Cobb Hightower? Do you think he’s a top 5 Padres prospect?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
Hightower was an $850k or so HS signee from North Carolina. Good hitting hands, can really time and swuare a fasball, on time enough to pull, athletic build, didn't get a thorough look at him playing defense because he wasn't on the showcase circuit much and I didn't see SD instructs....
Top 5? Maybe. I'd definitely take Salas, De Vries, Mayfield, Cruz ahead of him but I can't think of anyone off the very top of my head. Pena is good, I'd probably take him, too.
Kate
12:17
Assuming he comes back looking the same post-surgery, what are the odds Farmelo vaults up the Top 100 into elite territory?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
Uhh I'd guess of any of the guys like him and Alfredo Duno where the tools are so nutty bu there's risk for whatever reason that the "hit it big" rate is like 25%. For every Elly or Oneil or Walcott I feel like there are three Bleises.
Tony
12:18
Is a player like Gino Groover particularly hard to project on due to his wrist injury? And, speaking of which, how do you project his trajectory -- a full upcoming season at AA or do you think there's enough bat there that he could advance more quickly?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
You just kinda toss out his exit velos or use 2023 as a way to give yourself better context for his '24. I think it's fine to take a Bayesian approach with guys like that and lean heavily on your priors. I think how quickly Gino climbs will be dictated more by their needs than his play. If they don't re-sign Walker then Del Castillo and Groover might be on the fast track. More likely 2026 for Gino after the departure of Geno, feel me?
Guest
12:20
just curious when you will add the J15 prospects to the international board and what you are hearing about Bluejays signings either in this upcoming class and future ones, thanks for the chat as always!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Starting work on turning my notes into Board rows this weekend, should be fully baked by the holliday
12:22
I actually had Toronto's pool as being overcommitted, not sure if that's still true.
Dallas
12:22
Endy Rodriguez appears to be blocked by Joey Bart and Henry Davis. How do you envision the pirates catching situation playing out? Something has to give
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
I'm not sure either of those guys is standing in Endy's way if he's actually hitting. He has experience at other positions and all three could be rostered. So long as he's just getting regular at-bats after missing so much time, that's fine to start.
Random Fish Fan
12:25
Hey Eric, was wondering your thoughts on the current Marlins farm system.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
I liked their approach at the deadline where they were getting tons of pieces back in each deal, but I feel like I was lower on a bunch of the guys they got. I don't particularly like Norby, for instance. I am generally a little lower on everyone they got back from SD for Arraez. I think the direction their amateur department is headed in is a good one, based on their '24 class.
GA Blood
12:27
Now that the fall league is over, what's your schedule looking like in terms of baseball consumption?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
I devoured Premier12, now am watching the occasional LIDOM game. Mostly my consumption is tape study. I'm watching more NBA and less NHL this year than last because Ja is back and the Coyotes left.
Oly
12:28
Is it reasonable to think that Cole Young or Colt Emerson could contribute to the Mariners in 2025?  Which would you hold on to if one were needed to push a trade through?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
Young is in better position to help in '25. Neither would be untouchable in the right deal. Want Luis Robert to be baseball Randy Moss for you? Trade whomever.
Robert
12:29
Did you get a chance to see Grant Taylor in the AFL?  If so, what are your thoughts on what you saw?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
Buncha times. Raw but understandably so given how little he's pitched. Flashed three plus pitches, I'm in, he'll be a top 100 guy. mas: Locally Sourced Arizona Fall League Notes: Grant Taylor and Connor Phillips Are Nasty | FanGraphs Baseball
Disco Danny Ford
12:30
does mo baller make opening day in Chicago and if not, when.  what are long term prospects for a big stick being swung by an even bigger person?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
I'm cooling on him. He's husky but not big, he's like 5-9. Was turned off by how little pullside contact he made against AFL guys sitting 91. He's gotta be a better ball blocker to actually catch, and catching is the only way he's going to be a 50 type player.
Guest
12:32
What is Sebastian Walcott's ceiling and ETA?  Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
Christlike ceiling. 2027 ETA, probably more like 2029 before we see him hitting 30+ bombs
He'll be 23 then
Fish
12:34
Thoughts on Griffin Conine after his pretty solid stretch to end the season in MLB?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
Sometimes guys with *this much* power have a relevant but narrow peak.
Bencle Mens
12:36
With the contraction of the minors and less quality in the high minors, will we see younger guys take a chance in Korea or Japan get better quality reps?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
I think this is underrating how tough NPB is. I worry that more Latin American players will decide to sign with NPB and develop in their minors, there was a minute when this was happening but less so of late. If you're polished enough it presents an interesting path to eventual free agency, but the way draft bonuses are priced creates enough incentive for guys to stay.
Brendan
12:38
Of the hard-throwers in the 35+ FV section of the Arizona list, who do you think has the best shot at developing into a legit setup/high-leverage pitcher?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
Damn, it might be just be Ciprian. Knowlton is freaky and there are good reasons he's still so raw, so he's probably got the best chance to do it any time soon.
Klubot3000
12:40
Two questions on your AZ write-ups:
  1. Crisantes write up seems pretty bearish. Personally thought the contact skills were pretty darn good and we might project another mph or two onto his 90th EV as he gets to age 21-22, which should put him MLB caliber territory given plus (maybe even better?) contact skills. What is it about the visual eval that has you rounding down so significantly on the data?
  2. Roman Angelo just had a great season but your write up on him was pretty brief. Seemed like his stuff ticked up as much as anyone (+3mph on the heater over '23), and I really liked the change up in my looks. Is it an age-to-level thing that you're dinging him on here? Any other nuggets that you might have left out of your report?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
Crisantes I don't see where the projection is coming from. I know he's young but he's maxed out, and if you watch him swing enough I don't think he's really a true talent 90% zone contact guy or whatever he was....
12:45
I have a big league grade on him, obvs, but look how good you've gotta be to be a 50 at 2B: Major League Leaderboards - 2024 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball
12:46
Angelo he's sitting 94-95 and that's slightly above average velo, the spin axis on the fastball (1:30) is in that area hat seems to be very hittable. Like him to provide low leverage length. If the arrow keeps pointing up then maybe I'm light.
Guest
12:46
Assuming Sasaki winds up going to either the Padres or Dodgers, which top IFAs are those teams linked to and what do you think happens to those kids?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
There's no reason to speculate about this until it happens, it's good for nobody involved. If he were going to be a Dodger then, in my opinion, the posting would have happened on this side of the cutoff date when they have among the most money.
RAH
12:48
Eriq Swan was one of the best pitchers in the AFL, which doesn't really mean anything, but did anything meaningful change with his profile based on those showings? Improving command and just pitching seem to be his biggest developmental needs, right?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
Yeah, just pitching and facing hitters that good was a step up for him. Had him 97-98, cutter 87-89, sweeper 82-84, changeup 90. Freaky small forward type body, delivery is more natural looking than in college. Love him.
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