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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
Good morning from sunny Tempe. I returned from Dallas yesterday evening, had a great time with the whole FG crew and other baseball pals, redeemed the city after ASB.
I'm gonna preempt a lot of questions by posting a few links to get started...
12:09
Lots of folks asking about the Crochet return. My thoughts went live a few minutes ago. Kyle Teel Headlines Solid Return Package for White Sox in Garrett Crochet Trade | FanGraphs Baseball
12:10
In short: Much better than any of the deals they made last year.
I also wrote up the Guardians return for Spencer Horwitz...
12:11
Okay let's chat.
Jon G
12:11
Cubs apparently are down to move Cam Smith in a Kyle Tucker deal. Any guess of how much that'll hurt to look at this time next year when Tucker's on the free agent market?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
I like Cam but I think Tucker is an MVP candidate and I'd be tempted to make that trade. The blow would be softened by the presence of Matt Shaw, who I think is a more natural fit at 3B than either MIF spot and probably the long term answer there...
12:14
But I'd also wanna feel a little more confident that my roster was actually a contending roster before I made a knowingly short sighted move like that.
Jim
12:14
Do any of the A's young pitchers project as more than back of the rotation starters? Thinking Estes, Ginn, Spence, Boyle, Basso, Harris, Waldichuk, Medina, Hoglund, Barnett, Perkins, and Morales.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
I think Ginn's sinker will allow him to eat innings such that he's not just a vanilla 5. Barnett same thing, his stuff is pretty good and he's proven that he can handle the workload and sustain it....
Morales has massive upside, is still raw. Lots of variance there, but he has the most upside of that group by a lot.
12:16
Waldy and Medina I liked as a no. 4 SP and late-inning RP, respectively.
Obvs Waldy was bad and then got hurt.
Dallas
12:16
Should Konnor Griffin be more highly regarded considering his tools and ability to play premium positions? To me, idk if any other prospect has more upside than him.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
His right tail outcomes are huge, yes. The way I grade players takes bust risk and dev time into account and both are relevant in Griffin's case
Space Case
12:18
Have you made eyes on Jesus Made yet, Eric? What do you think or do I need to wait? Happy Hollidays Sir. What would you like for Christmas?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
If you're speaking from a dynasty league standpoint, if it's very hard to access franchise type players then go for it. I've seen a few games on tape, he looks the part and his trackman data was ridiculous. He's definitely a top 100 guy, I'll need more before I stuff him in he top 25 or something like that
For christmas, hmmm....
12:21
IDK maybe it's time for a new guitar?
MrMet
12:21
How does your analysis/valuation of high-contact, questionable-power prospects like McGonigle or Brito versus light-power-power, high-k guys contrast with how MLB teams might value those prospects?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
It honestly depends on the team, and also varies person to person within that team's scouting or analyst group. I tend to like the high contact guys even when they lack overt physical projection, but I tend not to project on those sorts the way others might looking solely at their age.
Sodo Mojo
12:24
As a Mariners fan I just became a lot more interested in the top of this years draft.  I know its early but how does the talent at the  top of this years draft compare to the last three?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
I think there are a couple of guys who have an argument to be top 100 prospects immediately, like two or three at this stage. By draft time that number is more like 6. It's possible a true top-of-the-class slam dunk will emerge by then but I don't think there is one now...
12:26
I love Tyler Bremner from UC Santa Barbara and think he's as close to a top 3-to-5 lock as the draft has right now. Here are my notes on him right now: Loose, flexible, and lean right-hander who sits mid 90s with his FB and was routinley in the upper-90s during shorter bursts with Team USA during the summer of '24. Posted a .88 WHIP as a soph at UCSB. Has a shot to develop three plus pitches. Fastball averaged 95 mph during the regular season with plus rise/run movement. Also features a two-plane, bat-missing slider with tight, hard spin and uncommon velocity (85-88 mph) for a pitch with above-average length. Bremner's best pitch might be a changeup that will flash big depth and late fading action. There are stretches where his arm slot drops when throwing the cambio but you can go crazy projecting on that pitch because of his fluidity and arm speed. One of the top pitching prospects in the 2025 draft and a potential top 5 pick..
12:27
I think Corona SS Billy Carlson is he best high school prospect and could be a 1.1 candidate if he shows up sronger in the spring. Plus defender, 7 arm, performed from a bat-to-ball standpoint against HS showcase guys.
12:28
Aiva Arquette is the other player who checks basically all the boxes from a defenseive fit/offensive performance standpoint, and he has the overt physical projection you look for in a high-ceiling guy. He could blow up and go 1.
12:29
So those are my three top guys right now.
wheelhouse
12:29
This is obviously so much easier said than done, and could be said of a thousand prospects who never became anything, but: what does a version of Spencer Jones who improves his swing decisions enough to run a K% down around 30 at the major league level look like? I don't think he'll ever get the whiff per swing rate to average, but that doesn't really determine the damage a guy does on contact
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
Maybe a shade better than Oneil Cruz's 2024 line? Spenny's power is more actualized on contact via better launch.
There aren't many minor leaguers who've managed 57% hard hit rates. Matt Wallner maybe in there, too.
AL Central Casting
12:32
Do the Twins have enough SP depth in the upper minors (including guys like SWR, Festa, and Matthews) to feel comfortable if they trade Chris Paddack?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
Yeah, I think so. Really deep group on the 40-man, Culpepper in that mix too despite not being on the roster right now. 2025 Minnesota Twins Depth Chart | RosterResource | FanGraphs Baseball
Tacoby Bellsbury
12:36
Was there anything in the minor-league Rule V draft worth noticing?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
Here are the results of the rule 5 btw: Every 2024 Rule 5 Draft pick, plus 1st-round analysis
12:37
Lotta teams taking guys who they think can actually play C/SS just an an org depth upgrade at those spots....
12:38
Lots of pitching reclamation projects. DeVito, Franco, Floyd, Peek, guys who've been hurt or whose career took a weird turn.
Hajjar is that, too
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