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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:01
Good noon from chilly Philadelphia, I'm coming to you from a hotel room awaiting the arrival of a bunch of my hometown buds for a wedding.
12:02
You might already know the Cubs list went live today, please enjoy.
Let's get it.
Matt
12:02
When might we expect to see the 2025 MLB Draft class to be put on The Board?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Probably prospect week. Travis and I have a huge ranking lurking in the background but he wrote a bunch of the reports and is about to be hired by a team. They may want to sequester his opinions and I certainly won't pass his work off as my own, so a lot of the college class' reports have to be rewritten (which is fine, it's for a great reason).
Guest
12:04
when are you going to be throwing the J15 prospects on the board
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
Shortly after the new year.
Ken
12:05
More likely to happen: Jeffrey Springs stays healthy or Joe Boyle learns to throw strikes consistently?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
Springs, probably. He's at least been healthy here and there, Boyle has never thrown strikes.
Tyler
12:05
What is Konnor Griffin's upside? Could he shoot up the rankings if he performs well in his first season?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Yeah, if the contact piece is strong out the gate that will make folks feel more comfortable that the tools will play.
fuz
12:06
So one team will spend their entire international 2025 bonus pool on one FV=60.  What the chance that another team will get more value with their 2025 bonus pool on traditional spread the money around?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
The hit rate on players in this market is low enough that I'd probably just take Sasaki at max amount and roll with it. I tend to agree that spreading out your pool is better than giving 3+ mil to one guy and calling it a day, but that might be because I'm coming off the Cubs list.
Alec
12:08
With the Nats (or another team say LAA or Seattle) doing so well in the draft lottery, would this make them less likely to sign a QO guy, since these teams (esp. the big market ones) would lose some of that lottery advantage in the form of bonus pool space and a pick?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
I hadn't thought about that, but yeah. It would change the way I looked at my draft planning and spending if I leapt like that in the lottery, and in the cases where other activity impacts your draft situation you'd want to more carefully consider those impacts now that you pick 3 or whatever.
It might also depend on your perceived quality of the class
George
12:10
Which of Herz, Parker, and Irwin are you most buying as a legit middle rotation guy for the Nats?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
Those are all backend/long relief guys for me. Irwin, for me, has the best chance to throw strikes and eat innings over the long haul. Parker has already been better than I expected, though.
Bob "Robert" Costas
12:12
Hi Eric -- happy holidays. What are your thoughts on Yairo Padilla? I didn't even recall the Cardinals signing him, and now I'm seeing his name everywhere as a potential break out 5 tool SS/CFer.  thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
Happy holidays, Bobby. He only exists on a spreadsheet to me right now, though St. Louis' DSL plays the Mets and Phillies enough that there's a lot of Padilla tape online that will be consumed prior to the Cards list getting published...
To that end, he's an above-average contact hitter with well-below average power.
12:14
15% hard hit rate isn't great even for his age, the contact stuff is good but nothing crazy (78% contact rate)
Bob "Robert" Costas
12:14
Curious about how you got to a 50 FV for Alcantara when his hit will be at best a 35.  That's basically unplayable--certainly not in an everyday role.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
I guess I'm curious what you'd put on Tyler O'Neill and Colten Cowser's hit tool, just off the top. Enormous power and plus defense, better feel for in-zone contact than Denzel Clarke (as I wrote up Clarke for the A's list, these two were good apples-to-apples comps)
Brian's Got Cash, man!
12:16
I have this guy Jasson. The projections seem modest but I have a feeling.  Should I trust the feeling or the projections?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
I have had a 50 on Dominguez for a while, that's an average regular. He's fine, not a messiah.
Ken
12:16
Are you surprised the A's haven't taken on a bad contract or two in trades with a prospect sweetener?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
I think that's a flex reserved for the big market daddies. If the A's add significant payroll, it should be to make the big league team better.
Cromulent
12:18
Wyatt Sanford or Wyatt Langford? These guys remind me of each other for some reason. Can't put my finger on it...
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
You're the guy who drafted the wrong Adrian Peterson
RWFTF
12:18
Is the 30/35 fielding grade on Matt Shaw a typo? The text reads more like a 40/50 or 40/55. Just trying to get a better feel for how the text translates to the grading. Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
Oh yes it is, thanks for that
lemme fix that asap
12:19
(sound of pots and pans clanging)
12:20
Ok fixed, thanks
Kate
12:21
Adam Mazur have / develop enough stuff to be more than a #5?  Seems kinda meh at the moment, but the Marlins apparently made some tweaks after getting him at the deadline last year.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Looked super vulnerable to me during his big league outings, I'm pretty worried.
SpicieBoy
12:21
why aren’t there anymore big free agents coming from Cuba like there were in the 2010s? Feels like for about 5-10 years, there were multiple Cuban free agents signing 8-figure deals each winter and then suddenly it just stopped
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
I wrote about this in a Hardball Times annual going on...uh...seven years ago? We went from older guys like Livan and El Duque and Jose Contreras, to guys coming over in their prime like Cespedes, to guys coming over in their early twenties (Arozarena, Robert, Yordan) to them signing right at 16 in a lot of cases...
12:25
The talent there was finite, it was an under-tapped "resource" (blech) that has now been tapped all the way, I suppose.
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