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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Seeking Solutions
12:29
In your mind, does Spencer Horwitz generate enough power to be a passable option at 1B for the Pirates for a few years?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
I think he's okay, passable is how I'd put it, a 45 type player.
Michael
12:30
Did you learn or see anything about Z. Hope in the AFL, that caused you to significantly re-assess your evaluation of him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
I'll obviously take another pass at him when I do the Dodgers list, but I felt pretty good about my 45+ grade coming out of AFL. Power over hit, gonna K a lot, feel in CF needs to get better, speed to develop there is present at the moment but he's physically maxed out and I don't know for how long that'll be true. Solid platoon OF if he's in a corner, flawed everyday CF if he can get better out there
Stilton
12:33
Are there any team's 2024 draft classes you were really down on? Whether it was their selections, the team fit of those selections or the way they spread around their money. Any you were surprised/impressed by?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
Because it wasn't an awesome class it's tougher to narrow down whose I didn't like because a lot of them feel underwhelming. I liked Seattle's, Detroit's. Didn't care so much for Philly's...mixed on a lot of teams
jj
12:37
Is the Giants list going to have JDJG on it?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
Yeah, and every org list that has already gone will be updated to include their int'l signees.
miratutti
12:37
Is Yu-Min Lin still potentially a 'dude' or has that ship sailed and he'll have to settle for just being a situational LOOGY?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
I think he's ok. Command isn't good enough to make him a "dude" with this level of velo. Backend type.
Tyler
12:38
Kind of a post prospect question but is Austin Shenton just an AAAA player or does he have a chance to get ABs this year after being moved.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
I've had a bench bat grade on him for a while. Playable power metrics were nutty for a few years but can't play 3B for me, hit tool too dicey to play consistent role.
Jon
12:40
I don’t want to butcher this but I remember earlier this past year seeing a screenshot of you saying Sebastian Walcott’s high end comp is Javier Baez. Knowing what he did in the second half, has this changed?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
Wait a second, I'm confused by this. Are people saying Baez would be a disappointing outcome for Walcott?
12:42
The 30 HR shortstop Javier Baez, are we talking about the same guy? Are peoples' memories that short?
Phil
12:42
Do we have data somewhere that tells us what likelihood certain FV value prospects have of hitting certain WAR threshold? For example, a 60 FV pitcher has a x% chance of producing at least 10 career WAR. That would be a pretty cool spreadsheet to make public if such a thing exists.
Eric A Longenhagen
Dawg fan
12:43
What Condon have to show in 2025 to move up a few grades? Is it solely hit tool + contact rates that’s holding him back?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
And his defense
He looked awful
RAH
12:43
You were pretty high on Rayner Arias at one point. His stateside debut was lackluster, but he was snakebit by injury again. Do you think he can show star level upside in 2025, or do you think that upside is actually lower now after multiple wrist injuries?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
I'm scared of all the wrist stuff and thought his swing looked different and weirder last year. Still such a physical guy, but yeah seemed altered by these issues.
Victor
12:44
Where is the Reds international money going? They aren't linked to any top prodpects.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
Angel Guzman, north of $3 mil, 7 run, 6 arm, CF. Am I the only one who has that?
Also Eric
12:45
Hey Eric, thanks for all your work. I have a general question about Moises Ballesteros. Is this the case of, if he can hang on as a backup catcher (maybe 30% catching and potentially DH/1B the rest of the time to accumulate ~500PA), while not being a great real life player, he becomes a substantial fantasy asset because of the quality of the bat at the catcher position? I know you've faded on him a bit since last year, but curious on your take for the divergence between real life/fantasy value with him.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
I could see a scenario where he has more fantasy value than real life because he'll be eligible at C while getting reps at 1B/DH such that he'll out-plate appearance a bunch of primary catchers, yeah. Sorta like Soderstrom late last year.
Jaygray007
12:47
Do you have a rule of thumb when a guy starts to get his "man strength?"  Ie, before that time, you can see a power uptick still being possible, and after that time it's harder to see it happening?  I'm just gonna throw 23 out there as a guess
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
I'm with you, maybe it'd change for an individual player here or there based on a new-to-baseball athletic background or something like that, and you wanna give the small school college guys time to get strong on a pro weight program, but 23 give or take feels right
Lord Thunder
12:49
Since you've touched on Josuar and Elian, does Cris Rodriguez belong in their international sphere?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
Signing with Detroit for around 3mil. I have more mixed hit tool evals there.
Biff
12:49
Bryce Eldridge- would you consider that he has a long swing? I’ve seen video and it looks rather short considering his size?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
Agree with you
Scott
12:50
No real question.  Just wanted to say that your talks are my favorite part of FPAZ.  Your knowledge and ability to quickly start talking about any player mentioned is pretty damn amazing.  Thanks.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
gracias, it's a litmus test for myself every year
Archer
12:50
What would your PowerPoint pitch to Roki Sasaki look like?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:52
Part of me want sot answer this seriously and part of me wants to write the SNL sketch version of it
12:53
I suppose a big part of what I'd emphasize would be the city my team is in. How can you access nature and quiet in this place? I'd want the sound design of my presentation to be a bigger part of my spiel and create a tone that way.
Jarlin Susana
12:53
What clicked for him last year? Was it a real change and do you expect further progression?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
honestly, just holding his velo across more innings was a big deal. To know he can do that closes the gap between projection and actualization.
Marlins fan
12:54
I’ve read some lists that say Andrew Salas bonus is higher than it should be. What’s your thoughts on him?
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