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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
I think a situation where a baddie like Roki causes you one to dash their agreements is rare enough that Latin American prospects and their trainers/agents shouldn't be paranoid about it happening constantly. There might be some individual team-and-agent relationships that are more sour now because of how people behaved, though.
scottsjunkmail
12:34
I'm trying to better understand which skills translate best from the upper minors to the majors. If you knew that there were two players, each with a true talent wRC+ of 140 in AAA, and the major league true talent wRC+ of one of them was 80 and the other 120, what would you be able to infer about their profiles?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
I'd guess (emphasis on guess) one of them can't hit velocity. There are just things happening at the big league level that you can't recreate in the minors. Breaking ball quality and velocity are two big ones. Aside from the legit prospects, who aren't there for very long, the best Triple-A pitcher would be the thirteenth best pitcher on the big league team. You're skipping from Pro to All Madden when you go to the big leagues.
James
12:36
Colby Thomas got some top 100 love from Baseball America, but you had him as #25 on the A's list. Obviously strikeouts are a major concern,  but why is Fangraphs so down on him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
A perfect follow up...
Let me say first that this is not to drag my buddies at BA, who do great work. It's healthy to disagree about some of these guys. There are things about Colby Thomas, visually and statistically, that are good. He has power, he's on time to pull, he takes amazing care of his body and he's strong and fast...
12:39
He's also a righty-hitting corner OF, whose chase rate (in the minors) is more than a full standard deviation below the big league average. His contact rate is more than one standard deviation below the big league average. His head is flying all over the place when he swings because he swings with so much effort (Matt Mervis was this way too).
What's that gonna be like against big league stuff? I don't think it's 2 annual WAR good.
I Made the Chat for Once!!
12:40
Not a chat answerable question but an idea for an article. Can you give insight into the logistics of teams scouting? There are so many MLB, minor league, and then potential draftees and IAFA signees. Do teams generally scout all of these players, or do they have a target list and only collect data on those guys? How many guys will a scout analyze at a single game? Is video becoming the go to for many orgs now?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
As quickly as I can: Tough there is more hybridization occurring, teams usually have a pro scouting staff, a domestic amateur scouting staff, and an international staff. Every pro player is scouted. Every DI college player is scouted, or has data collected that indicates they should be a scouting target. How well teams scout JUCOs and Division II and III schools varies, though I'd say more data-oriented teams tend to be the ones who want in-person looks at those players because they otherwise lack data on them...
12:43
How many scout a single game? Depends. Sometimes an area scout, a crosschecker, and a scouting director will be at Potential First Rounder's game. Mostly it's one scout per game.
Jorge
12:44
Hendry Mendez had some nice surface numbers as a 20 year old in A+, but didn't get a mention in the Phillies list. Lack of power or potential for development thereof too much to overcome?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
Coulda been an HM, has a lot of the same issues as Crawford but without as explosive the tools. More LF fit, less projectable. Loved him at one point, has stagnated.
Shaun Phillips
12:45
Ideal base defensive front
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
I'm a 4-3 guy, but I like to mix it up.
12:46
My GameCube died last night so I won't be doing any 4-3 Under nonsense with Peppers and Suggs anymore.
Bean Counter
12:46
Since the emphasis today is the Phillies, what do you see for Justin Crawford? Do you think he has the body to develop equivalent power as his father?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
I have a bearish view because I don't think he'll succeed with his current swing, and I don't think he's an especially skilled defender. He's talented, he has upside, I just think there's a big gap between what he looks like now and what'll need to look like for him to succeed.
Theo be Praised
12:48
Is Kevin Alcantara a natural CF?  If so, it seems like he would be prime trade candidate, correct?  CF would maximize his value, and PCA probably has that locked down for the Cubs....
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
Yes and yes
Alec
12:49
Will Keibert Ruiz ever figure it out?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
Man, idk, he's such a unique talent but it has gone much, much worse than I expected.
M’s Fan
12:50
Who is a mariners prospect that you are higher on than the consensus? One that you are lower on?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:51
I have tended to be higher on Farmelo and lower on Montes and Arroyo. From the sounds of things in these chats I'll be higher on Harry Ford, who I used to be the low man on.
Muggsy
12:51
Do you consider Tim Duncan a power forward, or were the Spurs just playing two centers? Does Giannis need another ring to pass Dirk/Garnett in the all time rankings?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:52
Timmy was a PF on offense and a C on defense. He might pass Dirk with just the one, KG yeah go get no. 2.
JordanWicksTruther
12:52
Hey Eric, huge fan. I was wondering if you are able to tell the quality of an International class on signing day the same way you’re able to tell the quality of a draft class on draft day? Everyone’s widely held opinions about the last two draft classes have been mostly true, but is there too much variance at 16 to know without hindsight? If you can tell, what do you think about this most recent class overall?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
Thanks for saying that. I think the error bar for an Int'l class is much, much bigger. The nature of the market -- with such young players who change so much so fast, and who agree to deals early and aren't seen a ton afterward -- makes it that way. Having said that, this still feels like a slightly down year, at least up top...
12:55
Do you have a track record of hitting insofar as you can in this market? Can you play a premium position? Are you physically projectable? There isn't a slam dunk guy who has all three of these things in this year's group. Josuar is closest.
Sox fan
12:55
I know you just released your 2025 international list, but are there any guys for 2026 receiving any hype already? Any teams looking like they've have strong classes? Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:56
I'll have a "top of 26" type drop for Prospect Week, which starts the week following the Super Bowl.
12:57
Okay everyone, I've gotta say your questions this week were outstanding. I'm gonna go get some exercise in while it's sunny and get jamming on Top 100 and Prospect Week stuff. Look for the Yankees list next week, and maybe the Braves, Jays, or Tigers, too. I appreciate your readership and hope you'll consider an ad-free sub to the site. TTFN
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