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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Tony Plush
12:25
How is Vlad Jr looking at 3rd? Chances he sticks there a few years?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
Meh. Maybe he stays there for a while but I do think he moves at some point.
It shouldn't matter too much, I think he's going to hit a ton.
Ron
12:26
What can you tell me about Isaac Paredes?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
Cubs "SS", still getting reps there right now (I saw him there yesterday) but he's got a catcher's body and is probably ticketed for 3B or C at some point. I like the bat, power on contact is good. Multiple teams have asked the Cubs about him in trade discussions and KATOH loves him.
Ghost of Greg Maddux Past
12:29
Has Jake Bauers' performance in Spring Training changed your view of him at all? He hit .371/.465/.857 in 42 PAs, with 8 XBHs, 4 HRs, a 16% BB rate, and a 9.5% K rate. He also hit two tape measure shots, including a 450-foot bomb off a lefty.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
Not really. I like him, have questions about how much game power there will be. And it's not because there's a lack of raw, it's because Bauers' approach has always been more doubles-oriented. And in general, I don't get caught up in spring performances and would advise you to do the same.
He's #5 on the Rays list, which is in the can but mired in an editorial back log right now.
RotoLando
12:30
The Jesus Aguilar Bandwagon is gassing up.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
Are you using the abandoned vehicle previously occupied by the people on the Mike Olt 2014 Spring Training Bandwagon? Or are you renting the Jordan Danks model? The Michael Choice vehicle is still in my driveway if you need it.
5 Run Homer
12:33
This isn't a prospect question but the Rays just acquired Peter Bourjos... why? They already have too many OFs!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
Rasmus is dinged up.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:33
The Cuban national team is doing exhibition games stateside this summer. Are there any names I should look out for if I go?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
We won't know until rosters are released but if Yoelkis Cespedes or Victor Mesa is on there, definitely those two.
12:34
And I still dig Livan Moinello, even if his upside is realistically a 5th starter or changeup/command reliever.
But I'd encourage you to go regardless, you never know what you might see.
Smokey
12:34
How optimistic should we be about the Phillies' future? Even though there's depth, they only have 3 prospects above 50 FV, which does not seem impressive at all, especially relative to the Braves
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
Right but as those low-level arms like Sixto and Medina track through the minors and the risk aspect of their profiles start to go away, those FV grades should tick up. It's a fun time to be a prospect-aware Phillies fan, in my opinion.
Old timer
12:36
Obviously prospect lists, while highly entertaining, are nothing more than informed opinion snapshots. If you were taking that informed opinion snapshot today, is there any particular prospect who would make a significant leap up your list? Thanks.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
Probably the guys who have shown up throwing really hard like Jordan Hicks, Mitch White, Jake Jewell (who I still get to write up), etc. But you could argue that it makes sense to wait and see if, once these guys are throwing every fifth day, that sort of velo holds.
HeaterRicky
12:37
Appreciate your work Eric. Could you rank the following on offensive upside:Jesus Sanchez, Josh Lowe, Bobby Dalbec and E Florial
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
Just on offense I'd probably move Dalbec in front of Lowe but otherwise the order looks right. Sanchez looks like he might hit and hit for power. The other three are power-fist guys with Dalbec having the most raw of the three. I like Lowe more as a prospec because the defensive profile in CF is better.
Old timer
12:40
A J Puk; command was the problem. Athleticsfarm.com interviewed Grady Fuson and he, possibly cheerleading, downplayed the command issue. What are you hearing about Puk's command issues? thanks.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
His body is better this spring than it was at Florida and based on what I've seen and scouts I've talked to who have that club right now, it looks better than it did last year. But nobody thinks Puk is ever going to be a surgeon, just that he'll throw enough strikes to start and get a lot out of his stuff.
Recent Takes
12:42
Who impressed and disappointed you most that you saw this spring?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
I've seen Riley Pint and Marcos Diplan struggle but it was one look and I heard Pint was much better his next time out.
Adrian Morejon was very impressive.
There are lots of guys on both sides of the coin but those are the first names that came to mind.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:44
Ooh, you're focusing on the Brewers today? Nice!

Lucas Erceg - am I setting myself up for disappointment here by hoping an above average major league 3B in 2020/beyond? I'd think so by looking at KATOH predicting 3.1 WAR in his first 6 years, but is this just inherent risk of being fairly far from the majors being baked in? He's looked awfully good this spring, but I know...spring training.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
Not focusing on the Brewers per se, just saw most of that system yesterday because they had 3 games going on the backfields at once in the afternoon and then an advanced prospect night game in Tempe. So I saw four of the minor league rosters in a span of 8 hours.
I like Erceg a lot. KATOH's projections are limited there because he only has half a year of pro ball under his belt. Huge talent, fell in the draft due to off field stuff.
SC
12:46
Do you think the public will ever be able to get its hands on numbers from fall instructs or extended spring training? I know such information has extremely limited value (if any), but it seems so weird in this age that all this baseball goes on without any information leaking out beyond occasional vague reports about guys who are "impressing."
Eric A Longenhagen
12:47
I doubt it. EXT and Insturx innings often don't end with a third out, they just get "rolled" for time/pitch counts. Stats there are probably too noisy to mean anything. I'd like exit velos and modern metrics like that if I could get them but I can't envision a scenario where I do.
Erik
12:47
Which borderline contender has the best chance of competing a year early if their AA/AAA prospects play well enough to force an early promotion?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
Good question. Milwaukee or Cincy next year? This year maybe Colorado and Tampa.
Sonny
12:49
What, if anything, in Mitch Haniger's 1.000 ops in Reno should carry more weight than the normal 'that's just the PCL' shrug? Really a potential 3 win player this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
He made what I consider to be substantive mechanical changes that have unlocked some of his plus raw power. I think he's a big leaguer of some kind but 3 WAR would blow me away.
JB
12:51
Comparing Giolito's vs. Kopech's scouting grades, I am led to believe that Kopech is the superior prospect. Obviously scouting is not just a science but also an art. Can you please elaborate of why Giolito is the superior prospect? Or is this one of those, "I went with my gut, but it can go either way" type of deals. Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:52
Kopech has what I'd consider more visible reliever risk because of the effort in his delivery and the issues with walk he's had in the past. Giolito's issues (he has essentially gone backwards velo-wise) can be explained away by arguably sub-optimal mechanical changes made by WAS coaches last year. That's all subjective and you can choose not to look at it that way if you don't want to, it's just how I've seen it.
12:53
And for the record, I think Kopech is a stud. Just a somewhat risky one.
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