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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Lord Thunder
12:22
Is the arrow up or down -- or sideways -- for Tommy Troy?Mostly horrible regular season, but better towards the end with a decent AFL.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
I have a utility grade on him now.
Brian Cashman
12:23
The Orioles' stint as the top farm system in baseball seems to be official over. Do you believe in Elias & co's ability to sustain a good-to-great system without consecutive years of Top 5 picks (and one legendary 2nd rd pick in Gunnar)? Are there signs that their international system is developing and/or they're as good as turning late round gems into Guys as the Dodgers are? Aka should I be worried about the O's beyond the next 4ish years of their core?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
Orioles international stuff has been mixed-to-positive, it can take years before a new regime's decisions in that space can even be made because often the previous one has made commitments that you kind to have to keep...
12:27
Their draft strategy has been interesting because it's been all over the place in terms of player type. They've been happy to take toolsy strikeout machines like Fabian and Honeycutt, but also have been on the Griff O'Ferralls of the world who don't K. It just looks like they're targeting any kind of high-end skills and hoping to develop the rest.
Mikey
12:27
I say chex is better, but Tony says Frosted Flakes is better, what is your opinion and why?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
I like the way Frosted Flakes cut up the inside of my mouth.
TooDamnTall
12:28
Is it difficult to gauge pitch recognition in the lower leagues? I am thinking some hitters get bored waiting for low quality pitchers to hit the strike zone, and just swing at anything close knowing they can do damage against the low quality stuff.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
It is, the lack of command at lower levels means there are just way fewer strikes.
12:31
And you're right, you can get guys who know they can just stand there and walk, and you get guys who are antsy and swing at stuff they know they shouldnt
Yuniesky Betancourt
12:31
Who is the biggest absolute tank in the minors and why is it Arturo Disla?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
I think you nailed it and now you should Google "Desmond Watson"
James
12:32
Who do you think would best round out the A's rotation after Severino, Springs, and Sears among Ginn, Bido, Basso, Estes, Spence, Harris, and Hoglund?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
Bido and Ginn
Arnie B
12:33
Do you expect Brailer Guerrero to fit into the Top 100? I know you guys had a 50 FV on him in an update
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
I do, best combo of present physicality and hitting ability during my FL trip last spring (non-Walker Jenkins edition)
Wade Miley
12:34
Any particular thoughts on the Nats signing Shinnosuke Ogasawara? Do you think he sticks in their rotation?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
Command-oriented sixth starter type. On Washington that  probably means he holds down a backend spot and eats a ton of innings. I've been light on the command-driven NPB guys in the past, though.
The Llama Man
12:36
Has Joendry Vargas gone backwards in the last 12 months?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
There was a weird period where he simply wasn't playing for whatever reason. I don't think he regressed so much as the new level overwhelmed him. His levers are so long, he was always a risky guy.
Dirt
12:36
I'm guessing Braxton Roxby would not have cracked your Giants list?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
I updated it, he's on there. On The Board, anyway. Meg has to re-load the article itself, pretty sure she'll get to that this weekend.
Yuni B
12:37
Which of the disappointing DSL debuts has you worried the most among Victor Hurtado, Adriel Radney, and Yandel Ricardo?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
Hurtado because polished offense was supposed to be part of his game. Radney we now know had a lingering back issue. Ricardo I was worried from the jump he wouldn't hit.
Okra
12:38
Do you think Lawrence Butler has another gear?  Contact rate wasn't too bad last year for a 23yo with great power.  Easy to dream on him still improving.  He's exciting.  A's offense could be sneaky good
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
I do, think he's a great longshot MVP bet if you're into that sort of thing. Who knows how Sac will play?
Justin
12:39
Probably a better question for Effectively Wild, but let's say a player was a 0 WAR player while seeing an average amount of pitches per PA.   Let's say he switched to leading the league in foul outs and significantly leading the league pitches per PA.   Off the top of your head, do you think that adds some sort of hidden WAR to this player?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
hmmmmmmmmmm
12:40
I don't know if I'd classify it as "WAR" that's being added since what he's doing has less of an impact on the actual baseball game, and more of an impact on the opponents stamina...
but if you wanted to quantify it maybe there's some pitch degradation study you could do and then apply that "value" to hitters who grind out at-bats...
12:41
Not to mention the little cues your teammates pick up on as they watch you spoil pitches.
Justin
12:42
When you look at a guy like Justin Crawford, and you know that he's not quite physically mature, how do you bake that into rankings/valuations?   Do you rank him based on what you think he'll be if he does fill out and add strength?  do you rank him based on who he is now?  somewhere in between, based on probabilities of each?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:43
I'm happy to project *strength* for any player who appears projectable. Projecting swing or mechanics overhauls? I'm not as comfy doing that.
John
12:44
You mentioned suppressed offers for Cease, you have any insight on what has been offered?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
I've heard some names from scouts who they believe interested teams have said, "no, you can't have that guy."
Bencle Mens
12:46
Speaking of hip-shoulder separation, I have been coaching high school throwing (shotput, discus) and it is natural to some and not to others. Seems like a simple concept to teach but it is not.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
No doubt, I think it's just an innate thing that some of us have and others don't. I can't bend, for instance.
FrankenGM
12:46
If you could Frankenstein a MLB GM, what would you do? Ex: the PD of Andrew Friedman, the trading big leaguers for prospects of Neander, the drafting of Elias?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:47
Throw Gillick in the Lazarus Pit.
Jonathan
12:47
You mentioned Drey Jameson.  It seems like his delivery limits what could otherwise be a tantalizing profile.  Is there any kind of winding developmental path that ends up with a starting pitcher with average command of three plus pitches, or is the clay dry at this point?
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