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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
11:59
Hey everyone, starting early because I have much to do and there are already lots of questions in the queue.
12:00
My work slate: James Fegan and I are working to wrap up to Blue Jays list, which will run early next week when Meg has the bandwidth to do something other than just PPRs. After that I'll be solo'ing the Orioles list. I've been on a backfield or two every day this week to lay track for the lists that will follow Baltimore: CLE, LAD, CHW, CIN, MIL...
12:01
I'm writing my PPR (relievers) and my chunk of a Bold Prediction post, both of which will also run next week.
I might cut short chat at like 45 min today because I'm going to start my day at either Camelback Ranch or in Maryvale and then wrap it in Maryvale for the night big league game, and I've gotta write betwixt and between those.
Birds
12:02
Zach Fruit has had two pretty impressive spring outings, the second against a lineup of BOS regulars. Stuff+ grades strong from public models. Can he stick as a starter?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Fruit's stuff is way up (one of a couple Orioles for whom that is true) and he's been sitting like 97. Looks reliever-y to me, but it's great that his stuff is up this much.
Oh Mayer
12:02
You raised questions in your Top 100 report about Marcello Mayer's ability to hit secondary stuff. Now there's talk is Red Sox land of Mayer being the surprise candidate to beat out Campbell, Grissom, Hamilton to start the season at 2nd base. Have you been able to see if he's changed his approach this Spring? And if so, do you buy this short sample as sustainable?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
He's still swinging over the top of secondary stuff this spring. Body looks great, definitely had a productive offseason. He's better than Grissom, who is not a good player and probably won't be on the 40-man for very long, and a better, more polished defender than Campbell. I think Marcelo will probably always swing over the top of secondary stuff, but still hit for enough power to be a good, productive player. It wouldn't be crazy if he broke camp with the big club.
Wood
12:03
Do you publish Florida camp lists first since you mostly get eyes on the Arizona teams in the spring?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
I do it in whatever way allows me to maximize real time info. I'll do BAL and TOR and then table Florida clubs while I publish all my in person notes from this spring in the AZ team lists. Then I'll go to Florida for Extended ST/FCL and Florida State League stuff to do the same for the remaining FL org lists.
Archer
12:05
Are you more conscious about what you write in your prospect summaries now that David Laurila is showing them to players years later?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
Do you want me to be?
Andy
12:05
Your write up of Jesus Made said he is arguably priority number 1 for you on the backfields during spring training. What have you seen from him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
It's real. Medium framed guy, great bat speed and rotational explosion from both sides of the plate, skilled defender with enough arm for the left side. He and Luis Pena are both gonna break camp with the Low-A roster and I agree that's correct for both.
Cold Turkey Stearnes
12:06
What do you see as the Blue Jays biggest impediment to developing pitchers?  Almost all of their pitching prospects end up hurt, busting, or not very good if they do make the Majors.  Is a more of a selection issue, something on the development side, or just an incredible run of bad luck?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
I think there was a stretch where they somewhat ignored some of the visual tenants of scouting in favor of an extremely data-heavy approach, and with pitchers I think betting on athletes and bodies is the right way to go about it.
12:09
It's one thing to "install" (so to speak) the traits you like in a good athlete, and another to look for those traits already in a guy like Chad Dallas or whatever.
12:10
Having said that, I think their best prospect right now is a pitcher (Jake Bloss)
And Brandon Barriera looked great in his first bullpen back from TJ last Friday
It's not a bad system, but I understand why people would be frustrated with Manoah's extreme decline, etc.
Platypi
12:10
How far has Jacob Melton fallen?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
Platoon corner guy, 45 type, not terrible
Pretty much what you expect when you pick someone late first round
Cold Turkey Stearnes
12:11
That said, which Blue Jays prospect (hitter or pitcher) do you see poised to make the biggest jump based on what you have seen in spring/on the backfields?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
I still have a couple scout sources to talk to about Jays guys. I really wanna see how Yorman Licourt does in year two. I need to watch Roden in CF this spring to see if that's gotten better (he'll move into the 100 if it has, still a good player if he's a corner guy) Bloss has been pumping 96 with ride, up to 98, and throwing strikes his last two outings.
Guest
12:13
When is the next episode with Paul dropping?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
My schedule has made it tough for us to sit and record for 2 hours at a time, tbd
Nick Z
12:13
Is there an old prospect whose hit tool you were an ardent believer in that never put it together in the show?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
I'll say Luiz Gohara because a scout and I were talking about baseball in Brazil the other day, and he came up.
Preller / Bendix
12:15
Elias is gonna come calling this year, for King/Cease/Alcantara... who should I ask for to round out a trade and supplement the headliner of Mayo or Heston?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
Jordan Sanchez is the sleeper with big ceiling in that system.
Baltimiore's
Darren
12:16
Thanks for the chat!  Have you seen Cags in Arizona?  In your write-up you indicated he would benefit from a toned down swing.  Does it seem like anything has changed?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
Yep, three times now. Swing does look more compact to me, at-bat quality has been better too.
Danny
12:16
Do Spencer Jones or Roderick Arias look any different this spring? Any confidence based on their spring training looks that they can close the holes in their respective strike zones?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
Haven't seen Arias. Jones' swig is definitely different but let's see how the contact rate manifests over a larger sample.
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
12:17
Is Jack Hostetler going to be a thing? Any other totally off the radar guys popping up this spring?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
Yes, he's a thing. Milwaukee dev churning them out. 97-98, plus-flashing changeup, breaking balls are below average. Undrafted out of Whitman. Good for them/him.
12:19
Bishop Letson and Tyson Hardin also arrow up guys in Brewers camp
12:20
Watched Lucas Wepf sit 94-97 at Dodgers camp yesterday, heavy split. Lower lev RP look.
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