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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:51
Maybe Bill Hall or Ian Desmond>
Guest
12:51
I read in the top 100 article a 50 FV player ranks in the top 15 at his position.  So is a 55 fv top 10 a 60 top 5 and 70 top 2?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:51
ish
12:53
You can really see how the tiers and distribution form if you look at a position over a relevant span of time: Major League Leaderboards - 2020 to 2025 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball
12:54
You can see who the two 70s are, there are a handful of 60s, Gunnar is on pace to be somewhere in that 60/70 mix, and then you transition into the 55s (thru Muncy) and then the next 10 or so guys I'd call 50s
12:55
like 15th, give or take, over 6 or so years is what I'm aiming for as a 50
Lord Thunder
12:55
If I remember right, you were pretty high on Wehiwa Aloy a few months ago. Is there still a chance of him going in the top 10?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:55
I think so. Power hitting shortstop who crushed the Cape.
Jos
12:55
Hyeseong Kim has gotten off to a solid start with OKC -- see anything new from him that encourages/discourages you about his big league potential?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:56
He's a wee lad. Great athlete, think he'll be a damn fine utility guy
Refugee
12:56
I look at hype videos of Jack Bauer and feel queasy at the idea of a teenager throwing 100 - is this how it's going to be moving forward, or is he rare?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:57
You've got your Hunter Greenes and such but the track record of guys throwing that hard at this age is not the best. It's way different doing it every fifth day for seven months than it is doing it once a week for closer to three
He'll go high, though.
And he should, he's good, but I'm sober about the risk there.
12:58
I'm sure yee old social media is too, right? They've seen enough of this before to know how it might go. Right?
Stacy
12:58
What are some player comps for Kevin Alcantara and what do you see as his floor/ceiling?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:59
Has 30/30 ceiling if he actually hit and naturally develops feel for lift, might be Lewis Brinson
TooDamnTall
12:59
In a recent chat you mentioned that you wanted your colleagues to feel what it's like to be wrong in front of a large audience. Isn't it the nature of the game to be wrong pretty consistently? With top prospects busting or unheralded guys breaking out, I was curious how often you really feel like you messed up scouting a guy.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:59
I'm pretty hard on myself tbh
David Wiers
1:00
Ohmydays that Chase Burns video. I know you said reliever for him, is that for anything specific, or pitchers gonna pitcher?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:00
I said "relief risk" compared to the other guys in that FV tier (like Bubba and Sproat etc) but I think Burns can start. Miz too
TooDamnTall
1:00
What's your take on Brewer's Luis Pena. Is the bat going to be too light?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:01
No, he's good. Wanna see it for like two weeks at Carolina as I work the Brewers list before putting him on the hondo right around Jefferson Rojas or so.
Tim
1:01
Chances that Jaison Chourio develops 20+ HR power? 25%?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:01
hmmmm, that's pretty close
El Zilcho
1:02
When do you expect to do updated draft rankings? Any idea what the top 5 looks like now?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:02
Gerth and I started working on those this week. Would ballpark them for two weeks from today.
1:03
Top five? Jace probably falls out, his body and bat speed have backed up pretty badly. Arnold is still up there, Aloy still up there. Ther rest of my pre-season 50s probably hold. Kilen might be up there now.
DJ
1:04
Any non-drafted free agents from last year you've found interesting? Jack Hostetler seems to be gaining attention in Brewers circles.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:04
Yes, talked about him on Chris Blessing's podcast this week. The Eyes Have It - A BaseballHQ Prospect Podcast - Podcast - Apple Podcasts
Bog
1:04
What do you think about the Giants putting Birdsong in the bullpen?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:04
Bummed, but as they've shown with Roupp, it's not necessarily permanent.
JV
1:05
What is Canarella upside as a big leaguer?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:05
Jackie Bradley
Salty Reds Fan
1:05
Why do you think you are lower on Sal Stewart than other outlets? Just want to see if I am missing something as well
Eric A Longenhagen
1:06
Head is flying all over the place when he swings, late and underneath a ton of fastballs.
He has better feel for adjusting to breakers than Tyler Locklear, but my spidey sense were tingling for the same reasons there. And Jordan Beck. And Matt Mervis
1:07
It's a common potential issue that isn't really expoosed until you face 94+ every day
Guest
1:07
Hey Eric, long time reader of yours, very much appreciate all the work you put in. please don't interpret this as some sort of attack, just a curiosity. On July 7th of last year you published a 45+ for Kristian Campbell. He had already been up and successful against AA pitching for over a month. On Sep 27 you described yourself as having gone from the high guy to the low guy on him. You said you needed much more deep analysis vs upper level pitching to say if he'd be a surefire regular. what changed between then and him receiving a 60 with no further games played for you? could he have received a 60 with more analysis earlier?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:08
The other publications were more correctly aggressive with him than I was. When I wrote the Sox list last year he was breaking out, and at the time it was novel to have him as high as I did. After that the others raced past me and basically said "this is completely real" and they were right.
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