JotCast | Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat

Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat

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Eric A Longenhagen

12:22

He could have some seasons where he's producing on that level, CF defense is less stable than the PCA/Harris types and he has the chase piece, too. Feast/famine type if given long term run.

Brad

12:22

Does Josuar Gonzalez have top 10 prospect upside? Future 60 possible? What would it look like for him to get there?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:22

It's possible, let's just see how he matures, physically.

metties

12:22

I've seen you use the 'term tightly' wound to describe some prospects in the past month but can't quite find what you mean (it wasn't in the visual scouting primers) — what does that mean and why is it potentially a red flag?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:22

Tight in the hamstrings and hips, usually.

Ketel Marte is tightly wound. He doesn't bend well, he gets hurt, he's still a stud.

Oaktown Blues

12:23

Nick Kurtz still a 55 for you? (You said yes last time I asked but that was before his 4 HR game and continued awesomeness)

Eric A Longenhagen

12:23

What do you think he is?

Colton

12:23

Do you have a favorite complex here in the valley? I'm in south Tempe so Diablo is the closest stadium to me, caught quite a few ACL games there last year. Really like the Giants complex near old town and the Cubs and A's are both a quick drive from here

Eric A Longenhagen

12:24

Giants is cool because of the view of the rocks. Salt River is cool during the ACL season because of the way the sunsets play off their 3b side, Camelback Ranch and Surprise are cool because they're the easiest places to doubles up.

Sam

12:25

Your write up on Robby Snelling notes you’re the low guy based on stuff concerns and low whiff rates on the slider. Small sample, but looks like in AAA he has mostly replaced the slider w a curve that’s getting 45% whiffs, does that change the eval significantly for you? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen

12:26

Sometimes I think the automatic pitch tagging it classifying the same pitch as multiple different pitches. Like just a cursory glance at Snelling's Synergy readout shows his curveballs all finishing in the bottom half of the zone and below, while his sliders are finishing in the top half of the zone. SO are they two different pitches or is the Triple-A statcast auto pitch tagging just seeing the ones he exectues well as having enough depth to consider them curveballs? And if it is, then there's a selection bias in the 45% miss rate you're citing.

It's the type of thing that you need to watch the catcher's signs to deduce, or see Snelling's pitch grip on release.

12:27

Lemme look at his other data real quick to see if the pitch traits are wildly different.

12:29

The data is different enough to suggest they might be two different offerings

What did Jesus Make?

12:29

What’s Made’s potential HR output at his peak? Is 20 within reason?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:29

I'd take the over

Adam D.

12:29

Jhonny Level sees the big leagues as a 20-year-old. True or false.

Eric A Longenhagen

12:29

FAlse

Guest

12:30

FG was lower on David Shields than I expected this year. Has his season changed that viewpoint to any real degree? Seems like a Top100 type arm personally

Eric A Longenhagen

12:32

I feel pretty comfortable with where he's at. He's a low A pitcher whose fastball is averaging 90 mph. I do think it's a sneakier fastball than its velo, but it's not like this guy has dominant stuff right now. The type of guy who's a 45 FV when he's closer to the bigs.

Squish The Fish

12:33

Are the struggles of the Jackson Three (Holliday, Chourio, Merrill) simply a reflection of their youth or are there signs they may not live up to their lofty prospect ratings?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:34

I guess I'm a little worried about Holliday because his grade was biggity big big. Merrill I'm not worried, and Chourio is having another 3 WAR season, he's tracking in line with his grade exactly.

Aviaries

12:34

What's your concern level wrt Zyhir Hope's really poor contact rates in the low minors? You still have him ranked pretty highly among all prospects, and while I understand he has a lot of pop it just seems crazy that someone whiffing on a third of his swings in A+ is a top-50 prospect.

Eric A Longenhagen

12:35

It's a lot of whiffing, he's probably still a 50 for me but I'd expect his ordinal rank to drop on next update

Arcadian

12:35

I’ve heard some rumblings that Benge has a flat swing, doesn’t seem to mess with his ability to put the ball in the air. Is this a concern for you with him or in general for other flat swingers?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:37

His average launch is 11 degrees, that's pretty normal. Your clandestine, underground sources might be overstating it.

Lord Thunder

12:37

Did Grant Taylor lose his eligibility for The Board? What are the chances he's now locked into bullpen duty?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:38

Rookie eligibility dictates who's on the board, that can be surpassed via innings or days on the roster. Rookie Eligibility | Glossary | MLB.com

Hopefully this is a workload thing and they revisit him in the rotation next year.

But I don't have any dope on that.

12:38

Are you really a pilot?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:39

No, I lie in the excerpt all the time. I was dropping Rowley off at the airport.

Oddball Herrera

12:39

Am I just impatient/unrealistic or does it feel like Walcott has stagnated? I get he's young, but for a "potential number 1 overall prospect" type you really would like to see more than a league average wRC after nearly a full season there

Eric A Longenhagen

12:40

Looks a little fatigued, still pretty incredible what he's doing at his age, still has elite physical projection.

GA Blood

12:40

Did you catch any of Parker Messick's debut? I'm curious as to how representative that performance was for him because I came away very impressed. I suspect his velo was higher than normal, but his command was good and he did a great job of limiting hard contact.

Eric A Longenhagen

12:40

I did, he's good. He's been in the 45-50 FV area for three years, that's about right based on how he's looked again this season.

ballstrike

12:41

Dax Kilby have 70 grade hit tool possibility given the performance so far?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:42

He's played 8 games.

and is hitting .214

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