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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:01
Hello from stormy Tempe, we'll probably have a shorter chat today so I can batten down the hatches before this enormous cell hits the city.
12:02
This week I wrote about the defense of more shortstops
12:03
Meg and I also wrote a job posting looking for a second full time prospect writer. FanGraphs Is Hiring! Seeking a Full-Time Prospect Writer | FanGraphs Baseball
Jeb
12:04
Konnor Griffin, whoof. AA doesn't seem to be phasing him at all so far. As a pirate fan, can he actually work out and be great? What does his ceiling look like? What can we dream on?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
Yeah, he's quite good. I still think it's a round down hit tool to some degree, but the power/speed combo is great. He's a top 5 prospect.
Greg
12:04
How much are you buying Hurston Waldrep's changes? How do you view him now?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Anything that can help make his fastball less vulnerable or less the focal point of his mix is a good change. Whether or not he can maintain strikes and health with that delivery remains to be seen. He'll be a good piece regardless of which is true. One outcome is he's a good mid-rotation starter, one is he's a good late-inning reliever. Found money/win for Hurston and PD either way.
Alek
12:06
The nats have a surplus of young outfielders with Crews/Wood/Lile/Hassell/Young/Franklin. Do you think they should trade any of them (maybe one of Hassell or Lile) for an arm this offseason?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
I think I'd like to have a Crews/Wood everyday setup then platoon Franklin/Lile. I think Young has utility as a defender and runner, he's a fifth OF on a good team and someone would probably cough up something for him. Hassell IDK what he'd command via trade. It's a nice concept in theory but I'm not sure any deal gets you a needle-moving arm.
Len
12:08
I'm totally just scouting the box score, but JR Ritchie looks to be having a great year and you guys are the lowest on him. What's holding him back in your eyes from being one of the top prospects in the Braves system?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
Just me, not a "you guys" situation. I wanted him to work a ton of innings to prove he can sustain this kind of suff and he has, and he's also on the doorstep now. Still don't love the command (some of that was Futures Game look) but he's a good prospect, likely an arrow up guy next update
Idiotic Failson
12:11
With both Grisham and Bellinger being free agents at year end do you think Spencer Jones makes his way onto the Yankees OD roster?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
It's plausible, Grisham's vibes have been so good it'd be tough for me to let him walk. But yeah, if they both do you have an internal option, albeit at a high-risk one.
Day Beaut
12:13
Which players drafted this year have had the best debuts so far?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
Only now have drafted arms really gotten going here in camp. Kruz Schoolcraft was 97-99 in his debut, that's a good start. Sounds like he'll be sent out.
Darren
12:14
If you're the Blue Jays, why are you waiting to call up Yesavage? Could give such a jolt of energy to the pen, plus some much needed length and bat missing ability.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
When/if an injury or two happens this month
Tim
12:14
I think Paul Skenes won the CY Young last night. If he stays relatively healthy over the next 10-12 years, could he end up being one of the, if not the, best pitcher of all time?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
Hey, "tim" I can see your IP address bud, I appreciate all the (many many many) questions but it does make me roll my eyes that you're trying to put one over on me by changing your name, as if a third of the questions in the queue are naturally Pirate-related
mike milwaukee
12:16
Lots has to go right, I know - but with Made, Pena, Wilken, Adams, and all of the 1B in the Brewers system, does anyone switch to the OF with the presence of Turang (and Ortiz?) there already?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
I think it's far too early to consider any of that, but I think the rate of conversion from dynamic SS to dynamic CF has been high enough of late to explore CF for one of Made/Pena if those guys were going to kick down the door as hitters. I think both have work to do as INFs and I wouldn't want to rob them of reps at the moment
Emil Morales
12:18
When prospect writers talk about a league being "hitter friendly" (e.g., the California League), is this mostly about park factors? Or is there a compounding bias at play where the environment leads teams to keep better hitters there longer and limit pitching prospects' time?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
I think we mention it to help readers adjust their assumptions about the players when those assumptions are often driven by performance made less reliable by the hitting environments.
lol It doesn't work usually lol
Chase
12:20
Hey Eric, thanks for the chat. I was wondering if you've got any updates on T.J. Nichols? On the latest board update, he is listed as a 40 FV MIRP. I don't have the underlying pitch movement data that you do, but when I look at his stats I see a starters load of innings and a great K-BB%, he did have a really high HR/FB% in A+ though. His frame seems like one that could fill out, 6'5 189 lbs. The clips I've seen look to me like a 45/45+, what is keeping him out of this tier for you? Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
It's been a big year for him and we're on year two of him improving strikes since leaving U of A
12:21
More average to above stuff than plus
Avery
12:21
Who would you pick for 2026 rookie of the year if you had to make a guess now?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
I think I'd take the guys who've been called up the last two weeks and will retain eligibility into next season. Basallo, McLean, Tolle...that type of guy.
Cool Lester Smooth
12:22
Is there anything stopping McGonigle and Clark from 65 status, on your next list?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
KMac Defense and Clark power actualization.
They're both awesome
NPB Scout
12:24
Hi Eric, do you have any initial thoughts on Kota Tatsu of the Nippon-Ham Fighters in NPB? He's been in the news a lot in Japan but wanted to know of his majors prospects
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
Pretty projectable 21 year old righty sitting 92, throws a ton of strikes, way better splitter control than is typical, fastball plane is very hittable, higher slot guy generating less than 10% miss with the heater. Definitely a guy worht following but not a monster right now
Aviaries
12:25
Adam Serwinowski has been on fire since he got traded to the Dodgers, top-100 candidate for next update or is his command still too raw?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
It's more about whether he's found a third pitch than the command piece for me, his fastball will play (could be like Tolle's, honestly) even if he has meh command
but definitely a hondo candidate, yes
emh
12:27
Is Ralphy Velazquez legit? Seems like something changed a few months ago.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
Could be a 50, I'm a little less inclined to project on his power (he's producing above average peak exits right now) because to me his body is maxed out and even though he's 20 I'm not sure there's more in the tank. It's like 50 hit 55 power just as far as the data is concerned, which is definitely better than the 40 I put on his bat when I did the CLE list but not nutty for a 1B/DH only athlete
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